Home Cooking, in Week 3, Might Be Vikings Best Chance at Redemption
The Minnesota Vikings will seek early-season redemption this Sunday after a disappointing loss in Week 1 to the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished 4-11-1 in 2020.
On tap? The Arizona Cardinals, a team that just abused the Tennessee Titans on the road in Week 1, 38-13. Indeed, the Vikings travel to a spot in Arizona where they have not won a football game since 2008.
For the Cardinals — much like the Vikings — 2021 is a tell-all season. Kyler Murray figures to take a third-year leap as a quarterback — he’s well on his way — and head coach Kliff Kingsbury likely has to reach the postseason to gain employment in 2022. Kingsbury arrived in the desert three years ago, filled with promise to enact a robust, pass-heavy offense. So far, the Kingsbury Cardinals are a squad that shows promise in stretches but usually crumbles with the playoffs on the horizon. In Year Three of Kingsbury-Murrary, the stakes are elevated.
And that means they should take care of business against a team that just lost to the Bengals. If Arizona can thump Tennessee, it can handle Minnesota — is the working theory for pundits and oddsmakers. The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites as of midweek for their Sunday showdown with the Vikings.
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The Vikings are not incapable of upending the Cardinals — it just seems unlikely based on the litany of penalties the team experienced amid its Week 1 loss. All told, Minnesota was accountable for 12 penalties (flagged for 17) with many of them in back-to-back succession. Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson mentioned this week good teams don’t lose consecutive games, so Sunday will determine if Minnesota is in the realm of a good team, according to his words. Too, Peterson faces his old team — the LSU alumnus spent a decade in Arizona, racking up First-Team All-Pro honors and Pro Bowl selections aplenty.
Statistically, the deck is stacked. The Mike Zimmer-led Vikings notoriously struggle versus mobile quarterbacks — Mitchell Trubisky can tell you all about it — and Murray is the keynote mobile quarterback inside the NFC. He will not be confined to a traditional passing pocket. When a quarterback bounces outside of pockets against a Zimmer defense, he typically seizes success.
Then, the Vikings play poorly in the late afternoon timeslot. Zimmer is at his best in noon games (for some reason), encountering trouble outside of that early daytime bubble.
The Vikings are 4-8 (.333) in late afternoon games during the Mike Zimmer era. That ranks 27th in the NFL since 2014.
— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) September 15, 2021
This stat is “skewed” a bit by home versus road affairs. When the Vikings play later in the afternoon, it’s generally on the road — and NFL teams do not play as well on the road as they do at home. So, take note of that. Regardless, however, the Vikings lose more often than they win in late afternoon contests, at least in the Zimmer era.
After the Bengals-Cardinals road platter, Minnesota returns home for three straight games — which might just be a season-saving, welcomed sight. The pandemic season destroyed the Vikings homefield advantage — there were no fans to make noise — but before 2020, the franchise was tremendous at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings palace opened in 2016, and from that moment until the start of 2020, Zimmer’s team showcased a record of 23-9 (.719) at home. That ranked fourth-best in the NFL from 2016 to 2019 behind the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens.
The schedule is not easy. The Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns start the three-game set in Minnesota, two formidable opponents that will probably have respectable win-loss records by gametime. The Vikings and Lions will square off on October 10 after the Browns game.
Staring down the barrel of a maybe-winless road twosome, Minnesota will seek refuge at U.S. Bank Stadium as a return to normalcy for homefield advantage.
And the Vikings will desperately need to win those games if the events on Sunday at Arizona are unfavorable.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).