After Cincinnati, Vikings Need a Clean Game in Arizona
Dustin Baker
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In Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings have an opportunity to erase the memory of the loss in Week 1 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Dalvin Cook fumbled the ball in overtime last weekend, proving to be the dagger in the Vikings aspirations for winning the first game of the year.
Ordinarily, a loss in early September would follow with “it’s only one game” slogans. But Minnesota’s schedule does not ease up for three weeks. On the docket are the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland Browns. The Vikings probably have to win two out of those three games to be taken seriously leaguewide as playoff contenders. Otherwise, Mike Zimmer’s team would host the Detroit Lions in Week 5 owners of a sheepish 0-4 or 1-3 record.
They’ll start that assignment on Sunday in Arizona as 3.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals abused the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, crushing Ryan Tannehill and Co. by a score of 38-13. Good Lord.
For the Vikings to right the ship, Minneosta must play a clean game. They do not have to be perfect, but the Vikings cannot be tasked with overcoming boneheaded stuff. That was the gig last Sunday in Ohio, and the Vikings fell short.
It’s not as easy as “limit penalties” and ride a wave of bliss. They actually have to play well on top of limiting miscues. Against the Bengals, Kirk Cousins’ offense was incessantly in 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long situations. Offenses do not consistently battle back from that. Here and there, those downs and yardage are doable to vanquish — but not every offensive series. That’s what occurred in the first half versus the Bengals. Seemingly every drive was littered with yellow flags. In total, Minnesota was punished for 12 penalties while 17 total flags were dropped. It felt like mercy when one was declined.
Minimizing penalties is the obvious starting ingredient of the recipe. And that should be easy. In the last five seasons, Zimmer’s Vikings have been penalized the fourth least in the NFL (382 penalties). So, it’s not like a chronic problem. They just need to get back to Zimmerian basics. Maybe it was Week 1 jitters.
After that, the Vikings need to force turnovers while keeping their personal offensive turnover total teensy. Since the start of 2017, the Vikings are 25-3 (.893) when they win the turnover margin battle by one or more. That’s an 89% win rate. Indeed, all teams win more often than not when winning the turnover battle. But the Vikings do it an accelerated clip. Leaguewide in the last five seasons, teams win 78% of the time when owning the turnover differential by one or more. Minnesota spikes that rate by 11%.
Zimmer’s defense is grounded in two main principles: Perform efficiently on 3rd Down and force turnovers. The rest falls into line. Even when the Vikings defense is suspect — see: chunks of last week — the 3rd Down prowess is typically still intact. In 2020, when the Vikings overall defense was the fourth-worst in the NFL, their 3rd Down defensive percentage was ninth-best. It’s Zimmer’s fastball.
A secret that some refuse to admit because they’re blinded by anti-Cousins bias is this: Minnesota would have won the Bengals game sans the litany of penalties. Forcing one or two turnover would have sweetened the deal. Instead, the penalties stacked the deck against the offense, and Cook’s fumble essentially ended the game.
Minnesota just needs to play smart to ensure a puncher’s chance against the Cardinals. They might even beat them.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).