Vikings Insider, the ex-GM’s View: Keys to Vikings Winning a Pivotal Sunday Night Clash with Dallas
Jeff Diamond
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As the Vikings players hit the practice field this week, they were greeted by the song “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night.” Just a little reminder from Coach Mike Zimmer to his team that they will be stepping into the national spotlight when NFC East-leading Dallas (5-1) comes to town this Sunday in a pivotal matchup.
Yes, the national audience will see for the first time in 2021 this Vikings team that has created thrills, spills, and lots of close games during their 3-3 start. Now, the Purple faces the league’s top-ranked offense led by a prolific quarterback and an elite running back along with an opportunistic but still suspect defense. In effect, Minnesota is facing a team very similar to themselves.
Judging from the games between these teams the past two years (28-24 Minnesota in 2019 and 31-28 Dallas last season), it should be close and decided in the last two minutes or overtime. That would be familiar to this Vikings team and their fans with what has occurred in five of the six games thus far this season.
It’s the start of a well-documented, difficult four-game stretch against winning teams with top QBs, as road games at the Ravens and Chargers are coming up, followed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers visiting U.S. Bank Stadium.
During my NFL management career, I loved big prime-time games like this matchup with the Cowboys before a revved-up home crowd.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Cowboys in a “measuring stick” game:
- Offensively, think touchdowns not field goals against the top scoring team in the NFL: There’s always a tendency when facing a high powered offense to come in with a ball control, clock eating game plan with the intent to keep Dak Prescott and his excellent skill position players off the field.
The Vikings need to run it some and Dalvin Cook has had success against Dallas (97 and 115 rushing yards the past two games) but Minnesota can’t be overly conservative and must be aggressive vs. the 28th ranked pass defense and take several shots down field. They must be wary of Trevon Diggs who leads the NFL with an amazing seven interceptions through six games but Stefon Diggs’ younger brother also gambles and can be beat as he was by the Patriots’ Kendrick Bourne for a 75 yard TD two weeks ago. A few double moves against Diggs by Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should be dialed up while throwing more at the other corner Anthony Brown. The offensive line must repeat their fine performance in Carolina (no sacks allowed and 198 rushing yards vs. a good defense). Rookie left tackle Christian Darrisaw had an impressive starting debut in Carolina. He needs to play well and perhaps get some help against Dallas’ best pass rusher Randy Gregory who has four sacks and eight QB hurries over the last three games.
Kirk Cousins must continue his stellar play, and the other Vikings offensive stars—Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen—need to have big games. Tight end Tyler Conklin and third receiver K.J. Osborn also should be targeted more if the Cowboys double cover Jefferson and Thielen.
- Defensively, with a secondary missing its best cover corner in the injured Patrick Peterson, the Vikings must help corners Cam Dantzler, Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander against a talented group of receivers (led by CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper along with a good tight end in Dalton Schultz) by putting consistent pressure on the hot Prescott (ranked fifth in passer rating). The Minnesota D must make him move to test his calf that was strained in Dallas’ overtime win in New England. A few timely blitzes are needed but generally the front four must apply the heat.
The good news— Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen and Company lead the NFL with 21 sacks. The bad news-Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league with Prescott having been sacked only nine times and the Minnesota D also must contend with the league’s fifth ranked rushing attack (led by Ezekiel Elliott) and run defense has been a problem area (Vikings are 26th ranked vs. the run).
This would be a good week for the Vikings’ $11 million per year defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to have a big game stopping the run and pass rushing and for another high priced defender–Anthony Barr–to make a few impact plays. Eric Kendricks is a key in run and pass D (remember his game-saving fourth down pass breakup against Prescott and Elliott in Dallas two years ago). - If the Vikings need a late field goal to win, the good Greg Joseph must show up as he did against Detroit as opposed to the Joseph who missed the potential game-winner in Arizona (that one still hurts). And he had a late miss in Carolina before Cousins led the game-winning OT drive. Speaking of special teams, perhaps we’ll see a long kick return from just activated, speedy fourth round pick Kene Nwangwu who was impressive in training camp before injuring his knee.
Jeff’s Prediction: The home crowd will be loud and a factor helping the Vikings defense. Danielle Hunter has a favorable matchup against either La’el Collins coming off a five-game suspension or his replacement Terence Steele, who has played well, so Collins may be moved to left guard that has been a concern for Dallas. The Cowboys will likely help whoever is facing Hunter with chipping from the tight end and backs.
Cousins has played well the past two years against the Dallas defense, and I think he’ll continue that trend. Cousins and Prescott have combined to complete over 70% of their passes for 29 TDs and a passer rating over 110. Thus it should be a high-scoring game considering the QBs and their offensive supporting casts.
I think Cousins will give the home crowd a Halloween night treat by doing what he’s done so well all season in leading a late drive to give the Vikings a huge win that will elevate the team as a playoff contender. Buckle up for another thriller — I’ll say 34-31 Vikings.
Around the NFL Observations:
- We know the Vikings blew great opportunities to beat both Cincinnati and Arizona in the opening two weeks but we also know both teams are much better than anticipated (at least so far). Cincinnati’s 41-17 thrashing of the Ravens in Baltimore was a shocker and QB Joe Burrow and rookie phenom receiver Ja’Marr Chase are the real deal as is the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, one of the early MVP favorites.
- What’s up with the two-time AFC champion Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions and the defense has been dreadful in a 3-4 start. Don’t count them out yet but K.C. has issues and looked terrible last week in a 27-3 loss in Tennessee.
- Sorry Cardinals but I say the NFL’s best team is still the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers led by their ageless wonder at quarterback, Tom Brady. The 5-1 Bucs crushed the Bears 35-3 last week and have a big game at 4-2 New Orleans this Sunday. I like Tampa Bay to beat their former QB Jameis Winston.
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Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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