Week 1 Betting Lines: “How Much Money Can I Lose This Year?”

NFL Logo on Goal Post (Photo by Rick Osentoski / AP file_

It was November 15th, 2015.

With six seconds left in the game and the Patriots down by two points, Stephen Gostkowski lined up for a 54-yard field goal.

If he made the kick, I would walk out of the bar with $2,000.

That moment was my tipping point, and the years since I’ve metamorphosed from a casual gambler in fantasy football leagues to a full on degenerate willing to bet on any matchup if the numbers are right.

At that time in 2015, I was in the middle of an unbelievable string of luck. A $10 bet turned into $30. That $30 turned into $100. That $100 turned into $400, which — in a state of hung-over pseudo-enlightenment — I wagered on a 3-team parlay bet: The Carolina Panthers, the New England Patriots, and the Minnesota Vikings.

At the time it seemed like a no-brainer; 2015 was the year both the Panthers and the Patriots started 10-0, so the bet — in my naive, far too optimistic mind — was only hinging on the Vikings to win against the Oakland Raiders.

The noon games came and went with both the Panthers and the Vikings taking care of business, and as such, I felt fairly relaxed going into the Patriots vs. Giants game on Sunday Night Football.

Oh, how wrong I was.

That game was like betting $400 on a horse at the racetrack you assumed would win, and watching him struggle the entire race.

“Halfway through the race and ‘Ben’s Hopes And Dreams’ is in last place!”

“Don’t worry, he’ll pull away in the final turn.”

“The horses are coming around the final turn and ‘Ben’s Hopes And Dreams’ is still in the back of the pack!”

“Sweating? No I’m not sweating, you’re sweating!”

“It looks like ‘Ben’s Hopes And Dreams’ is gaining — but will it be enough!?”

The Patriots were supposed to cruise to victory, and instead, Tom Brady went under center on the 20-yard line, down by two with 1:47 left in the game.

Thankfully, Brady did what he does best, and marched the Patriots down the field to set up that fateful 54-yard field goal. Gostkowski lined up and absolutely drilled it — and I transcended the physical plane into a state of pure hysteria.

From that moment, I was hooked.

Every NFL season I will bet on games, normally the Vikings or a few other good lines I find, but this season I plan to bet a little more than that.

Am I saying I’m going to be betting on every NFL game? Yes, that’s what I’m saying, but we will see how much or little luck I have going forward.

I’ll be writing an article every week with my picks, so anyone can follow along with my bets — or, depending on my luck — make the opposite pick.

My picks are the teams in BOLD, and you can find my comments on the game below each matchup.

I’ll be picking and betting based on the spread, meaning, for example, when I pick the Texans (+9), that doesn’t mean I think the Texans will win. Rather I think they will either win, or they will lose by less than 9 points.

You can read more about betting here.

Texans (+9) @ Chiefs

Do you have an annoying Texans fan in your life? Maybe an irrational Chiefs hater?

Here’s your kryptonic phrase for the next few days: “24-0”.

Last time these two teams met up, the Texans pulled out to a 24-0 lead in the AFC Divisional round before surrendering 41 straight points en route to a truly Vikings-esque collapse.

Normally, I would go with the Chiefs. Anyone would, right?

But a 9.5 spread for the first game of the NFL season in which no preseason games were played — and teams can expect a considerable amount of rust — is ridiculous.

Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins

The Patriots made waves this offseason by both the departure of Tom Brady and the handful of players deciding they would sit out the season due to the COVID situation.

This led many to believe around the league that Bill Belichick was executing his master plan: Tanking this year to secure Trevor Laurence in next years’ draft, thereby continuing the reign of the evil empire.

Here’s the thing about this matchup; whether or not you think the Patriots were acting nefariously or not, the Dolphins tank every year.

The matchup against Miami has always been a notoriously difficult task for New England, but don’t get cute here.

Cleveland (+8) @ Baltimore

There’s always next year, right?

While that statement can be the calling card for many teams, it especially rings true for the Cleveland Browns.

After being hyped to the moon last offseason following the additions of Odell Beckham, Sheldon Richardson, and others, the Browns did what they do best: give their fans weekly aneurysms.

This year actually could be different, however, with the addition of long-time Viking signal-caller Kevin Stefanski leading the ship.

Week 1 matchups are weird, and this division battle could surprise.

Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Jets

Never in my life have I seen a coach so against utilizing their superstar.

What has LeVeon Bell done to Adam Gase? Stick Gase with a dinner bill? Hit on his mistress? Hide his cocaine?

Be it his unwavering and completely undeserved ego, or something behind closed doors, Adam Gase is trying his hardest to make sure Bell doesn’t see the snap-count he deserves.

Carolina (+3) vs. Las Vegas

What can really be said about two non-playoff teams in a week 1 matchup?

The Raiders added some firepower in the draft in Henry Ruggs, but expect Christian McCaffrey to get a lot of work in the first game of the year.

Timing and chemistry between new Panther quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and his wide receiving corps is still a work in progress.

Seattle (-1.5) @ Atlanta

This matchup will come down to running.

Can the Falcons contain Russell Wilson when he scrambles outside the pocket and extends plays?

And can the Seattle defense (and his own knees) contain new-addition Todd Gurley in the Falcons backfield?

Philadelphia (-6) @ Washington

The Philadelphia Eagles go on the road week 1 to face The Washington “haven’t decided on a name yet and probably won’t anytime soon because we never wanted to change it in the first place” Football Team.

Washington does have some intrigue headed into the season: Will Terry McLaurin build on his break out year last year and emerge as a true number one target? Will Antonio Gibson make good on all the hype? Will Chase Young come out hot to terrorize the Eagles’ offensive line?

While Washington does intrigue me this year, there are far too many question marks headed into week one to put your faith in them.

Detroit (-3) vs. Chicago

Here we have the fabled matchup between the “moveable object” and the “stoppable force”.

The Lions have been the NFC North punching bag for years, but the Bears are sliding further and further towards the bottom.

In an alternate universe, the Bears are trotting out Phillip Rivers or Cam Newton week 1 in Ford Field.

Instead, they went with Nick Foles: A quarterback who is not quite good enough to start but just good enough to ensure a QB controversy by week 4.

Jacksonville (+8) vs. Indianapolis

The Jaguars are imploding faster than Lindsay Lohan after Herbie Fully Loaded.

After making the AFC Championship game in 2017, the team has lost the vast majority of that promising unit.

That being said, they do have Gardner Minshew and D.J. Chark, a very exciting young offensive duo — who more than anything deserve an elite nickname (I’ve been thinking for days).

While the Colts are a better team on paper, they are just 1-8-1 against the spread vs. Jacksonville their last 10 games.

Vikings (-2.5) vs. Packers

All questions will soon be answered:

Can the Vikings’ new youthful secondary hold up?

Will Kirk Cousins keep the passing game productive after the loss of Diggs?

What is the over/under for dirty looks Aaron Rodgers shoots to Matt LaFleur after making a great pass, as if to say, “Fuck you, fuck Jordan Love, I’m not done yet!”?

With a host of questions each team is facing, this game could truly go either way in an abandoned U.S. Bank Stadium.

Cincinnati (+3.5) vs. Chargers

It’s week 1 and you know what that means; some rookie is going to play lights out, throwing the NFL community into a frenzy before regressing to the mean for the rest of the season.

That rookie is Joe Burrow.

While normally I would bet against a rookie quarterback who didn’t have a pre-season or a normal training camp, the recent loss of Derwin James for the season could leave a big hole in the skill and leadership of the Chargers defense.

Arizona (+7) @ San Francisco

Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals were trying their hardest to figure out how to get off of David Johnson’s contract.

In a historically idiotic move, the Texans not only solved the Cardinal’s problem, but gave them DeAndre Hopkins in the process.

A pass-heavy Kliff Kingsbury offense led by Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, and Larry Fitzgerald is sure to put up points, and could surprise many people this year.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans

This is the game most will have firmly planted on their TV this coming Sunday: Bucs vs. Saints, Brady vs. Brees, deflate-gate vs. bounty-gate.

The Buccaneers have had a complete face-lift this offseason and are now set to be contenders not only to win the NFC South, but the NFC as a whole.

This season, the two Hall of Fame quarterbacks will play each other as many times as they have in the past eight years, and it all starts week 1.

L.A. Rams (+3) vs. Dallas

This matchup will be taking place in the Rams’ new home, SoFi Stadium.

Fortunately for Rams fans and members of the team, there won’t be fans allowed: because if there was, there would be a whole lot of Cowboys fans in attendance.

While not as chastised and ignored as the Chargers, the Rams still have some work to do to be fully accepted by the Los Angeles population.

The Rams will take a step forward (or backward) with Angelinos this week after beating the hometown-favorite Cowboys.

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Giants

The Pittsburgh Steelers narrowly missed the playoffs last year with quite possibly the worst quarterback play in the entire league.

No, I’m serious: Mason Rudolph had no business being on a football field last year, and Delvin Hodges was just placed on the practice squad — and will no doubt be seen bartending at the local Applebee’s in a few months time.

With their golden boy Ben Roethlisberger back in the fold, Mike Tomlin should have no issues leading a winning football team.

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Denver

The final matchup for week 1 of the NFL season sees the Titans heading to Mile High Stadium for the late Monday Night Football game.

I expect the Titans to pick up where they left off last year, with Derrick Henry getting a steady dose of work in the early goings.

With Von Miller out for the season, the Broncos defense could have a hard time stopping him.

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