The Minnesota Vikings kick away shot at topping Tampa Bay Buccaneers [Game Recap/Thoughts]

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Dec 13, 2020
Image courtesy of Vikings.com

The Minnesota Vikings went into their Week 14 game against the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers knowing they would most likely need to end the year 3-1 in their final four contests to make the postseason. The good news is that they can still do that, the bad news is that they’ll have to both be perfect the rest of the way while being perhaps the most imperfect team in the league.

That may sound like an exaggeration, as teams like the New York Jets exist, but let me explain the context of what I’m saying.

The Vikings very well could’ve won this game. They dominated early, but they yet again had a ton of embarrassing amount of mistakes. Penalties. Missed field goals and extra points. While Bailey struggled last week as well, it feels like each week a different person or people find a way to implode for the purple.

Sure, the Vikings didn’t turn the ball over, but they’re just a sloppy team. The scary thing is that it isn’t something you can write off as growing pains from a young team. Dan Bailey was the second-most accurate kicker in league history before signing here. Now? He was sixth before this game, so, there’s that.

We’ve seen Adam Thielen get weird and forget he has thumbs in games. We’ve seen Justin Jefferson drop a ball in a pivotal play/drive against the Dallas Cowboys. We saw what was a massively improved offensive line crumple like paper mache against the Buccaneers today.

This team simply isn’t there yet. We all hoped that they’d be able to ride this elite offense, improving defense, and old school philosophy of run-first (to create looooooooong drives to keep the opposing offense off the field) and play-action pass Kubiak-ity.

It’s easy to point the finger at Bailey for today, or the refs who reminded me a bit of the unit that “officiated” the 2009 NFC Championship game. I just got a text from Kirby O’Connor (our editor) who said the above and it made me think that each week there’s a different Bailey (along with Bailey himself). Or should I say, each week there are different BailyS.

That brings me to the in game thoughts section of the summary.

In Game Thoughts

I picked the Minnesota Vikings to win today’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m sure this’ll sound like me explaining away a wrong take, but in my defense I did say the following:

“As I’ve said ad nauseam recently in like ten articles and on radio that reaches from Canada to Iowa (N to S) and Wisconsin and North/South Dakota (W to E), this game will come down to whether or not the Vikings can clean up their copious amount of mistakes.”

I’m writing this as the Vikings trail the Buccaneers 23-6 with 5:55 in the third quarter remaining. The Vikings are driving, and may be able to mount a comeback a la the Jacksonville and Carolina games, but it really does feel that this Vikings team simply makes too many mistakes too deep into the season for the outcome of this game to really matter for the Vikes.

The Vikings dominated the Bucs in most measurable aspects of the game except the score. Penalties. Missed field goals. Missed extra points. All they’re missing are the turnovers/defensive scores that have plagued this team all-season/the last two weeks.

Should the Vikings lose this game they’re by no means out of the playoff race (as they would have an 89% chance to make the post-season if they finish the season 3-1), but again, playoff teams simply don’t make these kind/quantity/diversity of errors this consistently or especially this late in the season.

I’ve said this since the bye. The Vikings have a razor thin margin of error if they want to make the post-season. So, it only follows that they wouldn’t make it to the playoffs as a team that can’t stop making errors.

It’s so frustrating. Especially so because this offense is so talented on offense, and because we’ve seen them either hang with or dominate NFC playoff teams like the Seahawks, Packers, and even the Bucs.

It’s now 23-14 with 1:36 left in the third quarter.

I really, REALLY want the Vikings to mount yet another second half comeback and end the day as a 7-6 team. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, despite what his few remaining naysayers will have you believe, has been incredibly clutch this season.

Let’s delve into that (spoiler alert, we didn’t comeback).

Cousins = Clutch

His fourth quarter numbers have been staggeringly elite. Look at this breakdown NFL.com:

Wowzers, I just made a mess in my trousers.

In the first and second quarter, Cousins has 3 touchdowns in each ALL SEASON. That means that over 75% of his touchdowns come in the second half and over 42% of his 26 TDs come in the fourth quarter alone.

What about his other stats by quarter?

Yeah. Clutch.

But. Sooner or later this team is not going to be able to overcome/out-score their mistakes and that’s really too bad because this team has shown that it’s window of opportunity is either still open or open again.

A lot has to go right for a team to win a Super Bowl. Not only do you have to play your best as a team, but you also need the timing to be right in terms of the other teams that are fighting a taste of that delicious brass ring.

Clearly, the Vikings have yet to do just that.

The Refs

I’ll let the following explain my thoughts on the officiating today…

https://twitter.com/pff_eric/status/1338204160110567430

What was wrong with Kai Forbath, exactly?

https://twitter.com/tanishkamascara/status/1338233801244291073

Hot take from 2018 alert.

The Minnesota Vikings have struggled to find consistency in their field goal kicking game for YEARS. With one major exception, Kai Forbath. As I sit here watching the Vikings down by 9 points in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where the former second-most-accurate kicker in league history has left 10 points off the board.

That reminds me of a question I asked back in 2018. Why did the team use a fifth-round pick on a kicker in Daniel Carlson when they had Forbath (who made 100% of his field goals in 2016, and around 85% in 2018 (including 100% of his kicks from 42-yards and in).

I was taught basically first-and-foremost from my mentor in this crazy business (and cohost of my podcast ‘Morning Joes’ which has morphed into our new KDLM radio show ‘The VikingsTerritory Breakdown’ with us, Mike Tice and Wobby) that calling for someone’s job needs to be done as rarely as it is done carefully.

These are real people with real lives, after all. So when I wrote ‘It’s time for Priefer to go’ back during the 2018 season, I meant it. This quote from that article explains the most damning aspect:

“The only kicker who hasn’t really struggled was Kai Forbath, who did miss his share of extra points but was automatic from within 42 yards (or so) and who also kicked what was probably the most clutch and underrated kick in Vikings history during the Saints playoff game last season. He was let go, though, because Priefer apparently thought he could keep the field goal percentage and improve the extra-point percentage by bringing in a kicker who struggled during his senior season in Daniel Carlson. That move could be his undoing and is proof positive of his hubris (as is his apparent thought that he could teach someone in their 20’s to hold for the first time in their careers).”

Watching Dan Bailey implode like this makes me wonder why this team moved on from Forbath. It also is frustrating because they do things like this all the time. Whenever they get anywhere near depth on the offensive line, a unit group that has had a lack of talent, cohesion, and depth on a level that has essentially torpedoed the otherwise stacked Vikings roster since 2016.

The same goes for cutting Holton Hill last week. While we don’t know if there was something else going on with him, this team has been so thin at the position as of late/recently/increasingly, that we’ve had to pick up guys from random practice squads. Zimmer has literally said at times (and I’m paraphrasing here) that we’d figure out if these guys can play in real time on gameday.

So, when we’re watching Bailey most likely end the Vikings’ playoff chances, I have to wonder what could’ve been had they not felt that a couple of percentage or actual points was worth this.

Where to go from here

The Vikings’ playoff chances would’ve nearly doubled their chances had they won today (from the low 40% range to 71%). Instead, they’ve essentially removed any remaining shred of room for error as they are going to need to be perfect the rest of the way.

But this game was a crushing blow. The Vikings dominated the time of possession, and frankly large parts of the game (especially in the first half), and to lose the way that they did?

It could crush any momentum this young team/defense has built since the bye. The offensive line regressed at the worst possible time (Cousins was sacked six times) as not only did they allow Cousins to get beat up, but they’re now going to have to face the Chicago Bears and a couple of guys named Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Sure, Mack has been so down this year that a Bears site just wrote a missing persons report article, but I’m sure he’ll bounce back against the Vikings because that’s how it usually goes.

The Vikings did recently beat the Bears in Chicago, and the Bears did lose six straight recently as well, but they did win 36-7 over the talented but bad Houston Texans today and had Hicks not been injured late in the first Vikings/Bears game?

Who knows what would’ve happened.

So, the Vikings will need to win two divisional games as well as either beat the New Orleans Saints on X-Mas, or hope that the Arizona Cardinals self destruct (or both).

The length and reoccurring themes in this game recaps makes me feel that there’s a sub 0% chance of that happening, though.

Stats:

Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers