Is Stafford Any Good against Mike Zimmer?
Is Stafford Any Good against Mike Zimmer?
Disclaimer: The following 800 words operate under the pretense that Matthew Stafford will play in Week 9. If Stafford tests negative for the coronavirus before the game, he will start against the Vikings. He was in a “close contact” situation throughout the week.
Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford are the two NFL quarterbacks that Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has encountered most in his seven-year coaching career. The Chicago Bears – much like the Vikings – refuse to nail down the quarterback position with any semblance of consistency, so it checks out that Rodgers and Stafford are the main foes within the division.
It is also worth mentioning that the Bears could be quarterback shopping once again in a few months if the Foles-as-starter strategy falls flat down the stretch or in the playoffs.
Yes, we merely presume that Mitchell Trubisky is finished in the Windy City. Rodgers is 7-5-1 (.577) versus Mike Zimmer’s Vikings since 2014 while Stafford is 5-6 (.454) in the same timeframe.
Indeed, the Vikings are amid a two-week stretch where they face off against their two most frequent flyers. Last week was a tremendous start. Minnesota did little to stymie Rodgers early on during Week 8, but some second-half adjustments were concocted allowing the Vikings to upset Green Bay at an empty Lambeau Field.
The assignment in Week 9 should, in theory, be a bit easier even coming from the experts at ANY gamble Michigan site (who might be a bit busy counting ballots to really focus on Vikings/Lions).
The Lions are nowhere near as formidable as Matt LaFleur’s Packers. This is evident in the team’s respective win-loss records. Green Bay is now 6-2 (.750) whereas Detroit is 3-4 (.429). If the Lions are toppled by the Vikings, Minnesota will exit the basement of the NFC North, if only for a week.
Also, the Vikings are in dire need of a home victory. Dating back to Week 16 of 2019, the purple and gold have lost five consecutive games at home. It is inexcusable – fans or no fans. Before the 2020 pandemic season commenced, U.S. Bank Stadium was the fourth-most difficult spot in the country for opposing teams to visit (via win-loss percentage). That mercilessness has been laughable in 2020 as the Vikings have dropped homes games to the Packers, Titans, and Falcons.
With Stafford and the Lions coming to Minneapolis on Sunday, the Vikings luck might change.
Average Statline since 2014 vs. Vikings
Image courtesy of Vikings.com
Let’s be clear: Matthew Stafford, since 2009, has not played poorly versus the Vikings. He’s been a “pretty good” quarterback from the jump when facing Minnesota. Zimmer arrived in 2014, and that pattern of “decent” has persisted.
While the Vikings have defeated the Lions five straight times, Stafford and Co. have not always struggled against Zimmer. In his first seven contests with Detroit, Zimmer and the Vikings only won two of the games. Think about that in retrospect – Minnesota endured a 2014 to 2017 patch of struggling against the Lions! It was a trade-off of sorts. Zimmer was busy beating up on the Bears and floundering versus the Lions. Around mid-2017, things changed. The Vikings began habitually thumping Detroit but have been unable to consistently beat the Bears.
On the “Stafford has been average against Zimmer” note, the numbers check out. This is what a typical Stafford game versus Mike Zimmer entails: 22/36 (61.8 comp%), 224 Passing Yards, 1.36 TD, 0.36 INTs, 88.0 Passer Rating. Oh, and he gets sacked 3.5 times per contest.
So, you know – pedestrian. Not good, not bad.
1 TD or Less over Half the Time
image courtesy of Vikings.com
Stafford is routinely flummoxed by Mike Zimmer defenses. It is typically not a feast-or-famine ordeal. The 32-year-old Lions quarterback has thrown over two touchdowns versus the Zimmer Vikings one time – the last time he saw the Vikings in 2019. Stafford tossed four scores in a 42-30 loss during Week 7 last season. It was the game that Adam Thielen was injured. It was also the same tryst that Marvin Jones was a touchdown savant – he caught all four touchdowns from Stafford in the Lions loss.
On the whole, Stafford has thrown one touchdown or less against the Zimmer Vikings 55 percent of the time. That is – more often than not, the Vikings hold Stafford to one score or less. This year’s secondary is more puzzling than years prior, so Stafford’s performance should be a perceptive barometer as to the Vikings passing-defense improvements or lack thereof.
And, His Favorite Target is Out in Week 9
The Lions have no other choice for it to once again become the Marvin Jones Show. Jones abused Minnesota last year in what can probably be considered the best game of his career.
His opportunity for a sequel is palpable because superstar wideout Kenny Golladay will miss this Week 9 game due to a hip injury. Golladay is ordinarily Batman to Jones’ Robin. For Sunday’s purposes, Jones will be cast in his own movie.
The Vikings must keep an eye on longtime Patriots pass-catcher Danny Amendola, and young tight end T.J. Hockenson, too. Those men will round out the Lions patchworked receiving corps in Week 9.
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