Back in February, Austin did a post examining how NFL teams fared in their first games in a new stadium. I thought I’d take it a step further and look season-long records for the first year in a new home.
I took any team that moved into a new stadium in the past 20 years, and compared their record in that first season to the record from the previous year. Do teams generally improve or regress after moving into new digs? Well…neither, exactly.
Notes:
So, of the 17 teams who moved into a new building since 1997, here’s how they fared compared to the previous year:
Team | Year | Stadium | Record | Previous Year Record |
---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Redskins | 1997 | FedExField | 8-7-1 | 9-7 |
Baltimore Ravens | 1998 | Ravens Stadium at Camden Yards | 6-10 | 6-9-1 |
Tennessee Titans | 1999 | Adelphia Coliseum | 13-3 | 8-8 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 2000 | Paul Brown Stadium | 4-12 | 4-12 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 2001 | Heinz Field | 13-3 | 9-7 |
Denver Broncos | 2001 | INVESCO Field at Mile High | 8-8 | 11-5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 2002 | Seahawks Stadium | 7-9 | 9-7 |
Detroit Lions | 2002 | Ford Field | 3-13 | 2-14 |
New England Patriots | 2002 | Gillette Stadium | 9-7 | 11-5 |
Chicago Bears | 2003 | Soldier Field | 7-9 | 4-12 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 2003 | Lincoln Financial Field | 12-4 | 12-4 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2006 | Cardinals Stadium | 5-11 | 5-11 |
Indianapolis Colts | 2008 | Lucas Oil Stadium | 12-4 | 13-3 |
Dallas Cowboys | 2009 | Cowboys Stadium | 11-5 | 9-7 |
New York Jets | 2010 | New Meadowlands Stadium | 11-5 | 9-7 |
New York Giants | 2010 | New Meadowlands Stadium | 10-6 | 8-8 |
San Francisco 49ers | 2014 | Levi's Stadium | 8-8 | 12-4 |
So…nothing too revelatory. Unsurprisingly, there isn’t usually a huge difference in season records before and after the move; more often than not, teams don’t change drastically from one year to the next (although there are clear exceptions). Though in the last 20 years, teams do show slight improvements when moving into a new stadium. A few specific observations:
Moving into a new stadium has basically zero statistical impact on a team’s record. Riveting stuff, I know. If anything, this simply serves to rule out any trend in one way or another; the most interesting thing about this analysis is how close the records are from the previous year to the inaugural year in a stadium. Only a six-win difference over 17 years—a very slight bump, but nothing statistically significant.
So, what does this mean for the Vikings’ first year in U.S. Bank Stadium? Nothing really, other than they don’t need to worry about a precipitous drop due to new stadium gremlins or something. Really, the shift to playing games indoors will likely be a bigger factor than simply being in new building. For another post, and another time.
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You mention indoor stadiums in passing. What about teams moving indoors to new digs after playing outdoors? (I know -- readers are NEVER satisfied. Ha)
New home stadiums have no impact on road games. Your statistical analysis should be for home games only. As I recall the Cowboys lost several when the moved into the Jerry-dome.
A good story, if for no other reason than to dispel the myth that a new stadium somehow helps a team to win. I see this myth expressed a lot, especially in regard to the Vikings since they are about to move into US Bank stadium.
The reality is that a new stadium is just an expensive toy for fans. For the most part, it doesn't really affect the team. The only part which affects the team is the turf itself, since that is what the players play on.
May be a waste of time, may be interesting but....
I had the same question as Bleeds P&G about moving outdoors to indoors. I was also wondering about whether previous field was a "temp" field (ala TCF Bank) or a previous permanent field because from what I've heard about "temp" field arrangements they generally work against the home team (e.g. Vikings are first team in history to host a home playoff game at a temp field).
To the extent you're motivated to re-run the data, I also think Karl's point above may be the best of all. Road games shouldn't play a factor.