Image courtesy of Vikings.com
Cross your fingers, knock on wood, say a prayer, wish upon a star. Whatever you do, send positive vibes to the Minnesota Vikings this week. They’ll play the Arizona Cardinals this Thursday, likely move to 8-5 without four of their defensive starters available for the game, and prepare for a brutal three-game stretch to end the regular season. If they want to make the playoffs, the Vikings will need to win at least nine games by year’s end.
While 10, 11, or even 12 would be ideal, nine victories almost ensures Mike Zimmer’s team sneaks into the postseason as a Wild Card contender. After tomorrow’s matchup, they’ll host the Bears and Giants before a crucial Week 17 game at Lambeau Field, which could very well decide their playoff fate and determine the winner of the NFC North. But if you’re the Vikings, who would you rather play come January?
Win the division, and they’d enter the playoffs as the NFC’s third seed. Based on ESPN’s projection models (adjusted for win percentage), the third seed would host the Seattle Seahawks in the first round; definitely not an opponent the Vikings want to meet again this season. Finish second in the division, and the Vikings (fifth seed) would travel to play the winner of the NFC East, which has been lackluster as a whole for the majority of the year.
There’s a few ways the rest of the regular season can play out, and all but one guarantees the Vikings a shot at the playoffs. The question is, who would you rather see the team play on the road to Super Bowl 50?
The example above is just one scenario to end the season. ESPN’s Playoff Machine gives the user multiple options and variables, which are listed and explained below:
Realistically, the Vikings have a shot at three postseason opponents — the Eagles, the Seahawks, and the Packers. Winning the NFC North would yield them the Seahawks at home, and as mentioned above, that’s the one game the Vikings wouldn’t want to play. Last week, fans saw what happened when teams shut down Adrian Peterson and attack Minnesota’s offensive line — the Vikings lose.
The story was similar against the Packers, who found a semblance of offense at TCF Bank Stadium three weeks ago. They beat the Vikings handily and like the Seahawks, stuffed Minnesota’s then top-ranked rushing attack. Teddy Bridgewater couldn’t keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense, stirring the first doubts about Minnesota’s playoff chances. Unlike the first game, though, this matchup would be played at Lambeau Field, with the Packers hosting as NFC North champions.
And finally, the Eagles, who have stumbled repeatedly through their 2015 campaign. It wasn’t until they beat the Patriots last week that they discovered an ounce of their full potential. More so than the Seahawks or Packers, though, Philadelphia is a beatable team with the most holes on its roster. They can’t run the football consistently, they can’t stop the run, and they turn the ball over far too often in the red zone. If any team is built to beat the Eagles, it’s the Vikings, who control the time of possession with Adrian Peterson and win with defense — a formula for stopping Chip Kelly’s high-octane teams.
A playoff berth isn’t guaranteed for the Vikings, but they control their own destiny. Win one or two of their remaining games, and they’ll sneak into the Wild Card round. Sweep all four, and they’ll likely finish as NFC North champions. Both paths lead to the same destination, but one gives the Vikings a better chance to move deeper into the playoffs.
Before asking this week’s question, Ben Goessling from ESPN deserves a shout-out. His tweet (below) inspired my thinking and prompted me to chug away through ESPN’s nifty simulator:
So, Vikings fans, which is better? An NFC North title and first-round game with Seattle, or a wild-card trip to the winner of the NFC East?
View Comments
As well as they are playing, I think Seattle gets the 5 seed. Our division winner will be 3rd seed. Meaning us or GB get the 3 and 6 seed. Meaning we will play GB again. Not scared of GB...or the East champion. Don't wanna play Seattle again, but I also believe we might just need 10 wins. The Bucs are playing pretty well and have a somewhat easy schedule. And might just have the tiebreak over us right now.
Ccarterhof is right.
Best case scenario is that we are the 5 seed and go to play the winner of the NFC East....and somehow our defense gets healthy. But it is hard to imagine the Vikings finishing ahead of Seattle without winning the North as I think Seattle could win out and finsih 11-5 or at least 10-6. If we finish 10-6, then we probably are the 6 seed and go to lambau for our 3rd crack at the Pack. It would be awesome to take them down in the playoffs!
Would 9-7 really make it?
It seems we are already penciling in a loss versus the Cards. Damn. Our defense needs to get healthy!
But if we somehow win, then everyone will be talking 2 seed. Right?
I don't care who we play. I just want to win the division title and stick it up the cheese holes!
Completely agree aussie, and we just might get that shot two more times! Bring it.
If you think the coaching staff and players don't want another shot at the Seahawks, I think you're crazy. And backing into the playoffs with a loss to Green Bay would stick in their craw, too.