Last year, we looked at what the consensus of the scouting community had to say when it came to which players were the best prospects in the NFL draft. That look alone gave us a lot of tools, which meant not only could we have a unique way to “grade” drafts, take a look at which teams were off-the-wall, and which evaluators were best at “predicting” the NFL draft.
The Huddle Report has a similar competition, grading mock drafts as well as top 100s. Draft Board Guru won their competition—their top 100 had the most players actually selected in the top 100. We’ll take a look at other ways to grade that process in a little bit as well.
We’ll take a look at last year’s results, then follow it with a preview of this year’s board. If you want to skip to this year’s board, click here.
In this case, the Gold Standard doesn’t refer to who best ranked the players in terms of how well they’ll do, but whose rankings best captured the feeling of the evaluation community. There are a number of divergence tests to run on this sort of thing, but instead of boring you with process I’ll just let you know that they all came to the same conclusion.
DraftTek’s final board was the best at capturing the thoughts of the evaluation community as a whole, which means that if you only had one board to look at to see what people think of your favorite prospect, you’d check out the one they had at DraftTek. This year, their board is here.
A lot of people take pride in the fact that their evaluations are independent of others, and well they should. Many times, that produces unusual rankings, and gives their boards the best opportunity to surpass others when it’s finally graded—or fall well behind. If you want unique takes on the draft, you want the Odd Duck.
Last year’s Odd Duck didn’t have a close competitor. Kyle Crabbs at NDT Scouting produced the most divergent talent ranking for NFL prospects last year in his guide. The guide is available for purchase for $10.00. It’s thoughtful, well-organized and easy to read. Here’s a sample of 18 pages from this year’s guide, which includes a number of evaluations and an explanation of their methdology.
The Huddle Report’s contest is very good, and a pretty handy reference for figuring out who the players in the top 100 will go. They look at the players in a board’s Top 100, then count up how many of those players actually went in the first 100 picks.
We’ll take it a step further, this time by figuring out how far away a player was actually picked from their spot on the board and adding up all those differences. We’re adjusting for how high a player is picked, so if a player ranked first goes fifth, it means a much bigger penalty than if a player ranked 75 goes 88th.
For this we’ll exclude those boards that had at least 100 players, something we’ll exclude in all phases this year, not just from awards, but input into the rankings. That means the winner, Daniel Jeremiah, doesn’t count because he only ranked 50 players.
The next best predictor was Mike Mayock at the NFL Network, whose score was actually fairly stunning. Despite the fact that he had Jadeveon Clowney as his second-ranked player (one of 11 rankers to do so out of 34), Greg Robinson as his third-ranked player and Blake Bortles as his 15th-ranked player, the rest of his rankings matched the board fairly well.
Instead of calling the opposite award the “Worst Prediction,” we’ll call it Out of Sync, because most of these evaluators aren’t attempting to predict the Top 100 with their list of top 100 players, simply predict the best 100 players. Kyle Crabbs won that award as well, and got there with some bold moves—ranking third overall pick Blake Bortles as his 49th-best player, second-overall pick Greg Robinson as his tenth-ranked player and fourth-overall pick Sammy Watkins as his 16th-ranked player.
Oh, and Mike Evans ranked 123rd.
Last year, we divided the boards into “forecasters” and “evaluators” in order to separate the two approaches that seemed to have developed when ranking draft prospects. The first set of boards come from what some people have started calling “Big Draft,” which is a reflection of dominant media narratives—we usually see them on TV on ESPN or the NFL Network, or online at those places in addition to CBS and on occasion Yahoo!
The idea was that those that are “plugged in” to the league are not necessarily better at evaluating players—although they could be, due to training, access (to coach’s film or scheme) and resources (like former players)—but have information most other sources wouldn’t have, like off-field concerns and injury. They know how a player did in interviews and have some sense of what teams are thinking.
That means their access to the pulse of the NFL will influence their evaluations either implictly or explicitly, and results in a board that is reflective of NFL opinion.
There are a couple of things we could do here. First, we could run the Top 100 test we did above to see if the forecaster (or evaluator) board beat Mike Mayock.
After that, we could take a look at where the evaluator boards diverged with the forecaster boards, and see who was closer to the actual pick. We’ll count up “wins” for those who were closer to the actual pick, and create “winning percentages” for the Top 32, Top 50, Top 100, Top 256.
So, was the forecaster board more accurate than Mayock? Yes, but by the tiniest margin. The average error for Mike Mayock was the magnitude of error that would have the player who was picked 20th was ranked 34th, which is actually pretty good on average.
The average error for the forecaster board was as if that 20th pick was ranked 33rd. It’s a very small difference. A better example comes at the 100th pick. The average error for Mayock would rank the player who ended up going 100 was ranked 141st. For the forecaster board, that player would be ranked 139th.
Either way, the forecaster board is pretty good at predicting the draft from that perspective.
At the end of the day, however, it’s not really what you’re looking for when figuring out where a player will be drafted. If a player is ranked 35th, 38th and 32nd by different groups, there’s not a real controversy. Instead, it’s when a player is highly lauded by one set of draftniks and derided by the other that it’s really interesting.
Yes, I’m talking about Teddy Bridgewater. Sort of.
So, we’ll create win counts for those bigger differences for each group of players: Top 32, Top 50, Top 100 and Top 256. As an example, Teddy Bridgewater was ranked third by the “evaluators” and 18th by the “forecasters.” Bridgewater was drafted 32nd, so the second set of boards “won.”
| Evaluator Wins | Forecaster Wins | Ties | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Top 50 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Top 100 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Top 256 | 9 | 31 | 1 |
The difference is clear. The evaluators didn’t win once in the top 32 or the top 50, which is pretty compelling evidence that the forecasters do indeed forecast.
| Evaluator Win% | Forecaster Win % | |
|---|---|---|
| Top 32 | 16.7 | 83.3 |
| Top 50 | 10 | 90 |
| Top 100 | 13.6 | 86.4 |
| Top 256 | 23.2 | 76.8 |
It’s a landslide. The tie, by the way, was Taylor Lewan—who was ranked 15th by the evaluators and 7th by the forecasters, and ended up going 11th, splitting the difference. There’s a good case for eliminating ties from the win percentage calculation, but there’s not much point: the difference is clear.
I think the best way to see how to evaluate which board best predicts player performance is to take a look a the players who they disagreed on and make a judgment call on that player’s performance vs. the value of the spot he was projected to be in.
Naturally, that would cause a lot of disagreement and is not foolproof. People disagree on what the value of a third-round pick is, and what teams should expect from them. Is a high-quality backup a good pick in the third? A bad starter? Sometimes those two aren’t distinct, but the second is judged more harshly. I would consider, for example, Mason Foster to be in that category.
Perhaps the best way to resolve the evaluative tension behind the value of some of these picks isn’t necessarily to use Approximate Value (my go-to way of answering these questions) but to index Approximate Value against Pro Football Focus scores to see what the expected PFF score for a pick should be. Then, we can use that as a rough guide to see who was closer on some of these controversial players.
That will have to wait, however, as these players get more time in the NFL. For now, let’s make snap judgments on the biggest disagreements.
| Evaluator | Forecaster | Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 16 | 7 | Forecaster |
| Justin Gilbert | 26 | 9 | Evaluator |
| Taylor Lewan | 16 | 6 | Forecaster |
| Calvin Pryor | 32 | 17 | Forecaster |
| Jason Verett | 18 | 37 | Evaluator |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 18 | Evaluator |
| Joel Bitonio | 84 | 42 | Forecaster |
| Derek Carr | 12 | 31 | Evaluator |
| Jeremy Hill | 96 | 54 | Forecaster |
Well, alright then.
Well if you’re here for the big board, here it is. It’s incomplete and needs about five more rankings groups to contribute in order to finish it. Tomorrow we’ll have it updated and complete, along with a complete analysis of the different ways to rank the boards (logarithmic point distributions, medians, means and trimmed means) and the differences between the evaluators and forecasters in this year’s draft.
Two notes before you see it. The first is that we have “roles” and “positions” to designate the likely fit for players to be draft and the likely positions they’ll play. Roles are a narrow grouping than positions, so all 3-technique tackles, 5-technique tackles and nose tackles are “IDL” or interior defensive linemen.
Sometimes, those roles and positions are the same, like for edge rushers and QBs. Here’s a cheatsheet:
I’ll explain the groupings and why they are the way they are tomorrow as well as the analysis of the rankings I mentioned earlier. Remember, Anthony Barr was an “edge” player last year, so the position groupings aren’t ironclad. Still, if you think a player’s role was misdefined, do not hesitate to let me know.
We’ll have a live, complete big board running as part of our draft coverage. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
Here’s the full board (missing a few entrants):
| Rank | Player | School | Role | Role Rk | Position | Pos Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonard Williams | USC | 5T | 1 | IDL | 1 |
| 2 | Jameis Winston | Florida St | QB | 1 | QB | 1 |
| 3 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | QB | 2 | QB | 2 |
| 4 | Amari Cooper | Alabama | FL | 1 | WR | 1 |
| 5 | Dante Fowler Jr. | Florida | EDGE | 1 | EDGE | 1 |
| 6 | Kevin White (WR) | West Virginia | SE | 1 | WR | 2 |
| 7 | Brandon Scherff | Iowa | OT | 1 | OL | 1 |
| 8 | Randy Gregory | Nebraska | EDGE | 2 | EDGE | 2 |
| 9 | Vic Beasley | Clemson | EDGE | 3 | EDGE | 3 |
| 10 | Todd Gurley | Georgia | RBF | 1 | RB | 1 |
| 11 | DeVante Parker | Louisville | SE | 2 | WR | 3 |
| 12 | Alvin Dupree | Kentucky | EDGE | 4 | EDGE | 4 |
| 13 | Trae Waynes | Michigan St | OCB | 1 | CB | 1 |
| 14 | Danny Shelton | Washington | NT | 1 | IDL | 2 |
| 15 | Shane Ray | Missouri | EDGE | 5 | EDGE | 5 |
| 16 | La’el Collins | LSU | OT | 2 | OL | 2 |
| 17 | Landon Collins | Alabama | SS | 1 | S | 1 |
| 18 | Marcus Peters | Washington | OCB | 2 | CB | 2 |
| 19 | Melvin Gordon | Wisconsin | RBF | 2 | RB | 2 |
| 20 | Malcom Brown | Texas | NT | 2 | IDL | 3 |
| 21 | Andrus Peat | Stanford | OT | 3 | OL | 3 |
| 22 | Ereck Flowers | Miami (FL) | OT | 4 | OL | 4 |
| 23 | Eddie Goldman | Florida St | NT | 3 | IDL | 4 |
| 24 | Arik Armstead | Oregon | 5T | 2 | IDL | 5 |
| 25 | Cameron Erving | Florida St | OC | 1 | OL | 5 |
| 26 | D.J. Humphries | Florida | OT | 5 | OL | 6 |
| 27 | Jaelen Strong | Arizona St | FL | 2 | WR | 4 |
| 28 | Eric Kendricks | UCLA | OFOB | 1 | OFB | 1 |
| 29 | Shaq Thompson | Washington | OFOB | 2 | OFB | 2 |
| 30 | Eli Harold | Virginia | EDGE | 6 | EDGE | 6 |
| 31 | Kevin Johnson | Wake Forest | OCB | 3 | CB | 3 |
| 32 | Jake Fisher | Oregon | OT | 6 | OL | 7 |
| 33 | T.J. Clemmings | Pittsburgh | OT | 7 | OL | 8 |
| 34 | Dorial Green-Beckham | Missouri | SE | 3 | WR | 5 |
| 35 | Jalen Collins | LSU | OCB | 4 | CB | 4 |
| 36 | Owamagbe Odighizuwa | UCLA | EDGE | 7 | EDGE | 7 |
| 37 | Maxx Williams | Minnesota | TE | 1 | TE | 1 |
| 38 | Jordan Phillips | Oklahoma | NT | 4 | IDL | 6 |
| 39 | Nelson Agholor | USC | FL | 3 | WR | 6 |
| 40 | Breshad Perriman | Central Florida | SE | 4 | WR | 7 |
| 41 | Michael Bennett (DT) | Ohio St | 3T | 1 | IDL | 7 |
| 42 | Preston Smith | Mississippi St | EDGE | 8 | EDGE | 8 |
| 43 | Byron Jones | Connecticut | OCB | 5 | CB | 5 |
| 44 | Benardrick McKinney | Mississippi St | OFIB | 1 | OFB | 3 |
| 45 | Carl Davis | Iowa | NT | 5 | IDL | 8 |
| 46 | P.J. Williams | Florida St | OCB | 6 | CB | 6 |
| 47 | Devin Funchess | Michigan | SE | 5 | WR | 8 |
| 48 | Cedric Ogbuehi | Texas A&M | OT | 8 | OL | 9 |
| 49 | Jay Ajayi | Boise St | RBF | 3 | RB | 3 |
| 50 | Devin Smith | Ohio State | SE | 6 | WR | 9 |
| 51 | Phillip Dorsett | Miami (FL) | SE | 7 | WR | 10 |
| 52 | Denzel Perryman | Miami (FL) | OFIB | 2 | OFB | 4 |
| 53 | Tevin Coleman | Indiana | RBF | 4 | RB | 4 |
| 54 | Ronald Darby | Florida St | OCB | 7 | CB | 7 |
| 55 | Duke Johnson | Miami (FL) | RBF | 5 | RB | 5 |
| 56 | Paul Dawson | TCU | OFIB | 3 | OFB | 5 |
| 57 | Nate Orchard | Utah | EDGE | 9 | EDGE | 9 |
| 58 | Danielle Hunter | LSU | EDGE | 10 | EDGE | 10 |
| 59 | Quinten Rollins | Miami (OH) | OCB | 8 | CB | 8 |
| 60 | Eric Rowe | Utah | OCB | 9 | CB | 9 |
| 61 | Ameer Abdullah | Nebraska | RBF | 6 | RB | 6 |
| 62 | A.J. Cann | South Carolina | OG | 1 | OL | 10 |
| 63 | Sammie Coates | Auburn | FL | 4 | WR | 11 |
| 64 | Brett Hundley | UCLA | QB | 3 | QB | 3 |
| 65 | Laken Tomlinson | Duke | OG | 2 | OL | 11 |
| 66 | Stephone Anthony | Clemson | OFIB | 4 | OFB | 6 |
| 67 | T.J. Yeldon | Alabama | RBF | 7 | RB | 7 |
| 68 | Alex Carter | Stanford | OCB | 10 | CB | 10 |
| 69 | Clive Walford | Miami (FL) | TE | 2 | TE | 2 |
| 70 | Mario Edwards Jr. | Florida St | EDGE | 11 | EDGE | 11 |
| 71 | Ifo Ekpre-Olomu | Oregon | NCB | 1 | CB | 11 |
| 72 | Hau’oli Kikaha | Washington | EDGE | 12 | EDGE | 12 |
| 73 | Grady Jarrett | Clemson | 3T | 2 | IDL | 9 |
| 74 | Tre’ Jackson | Florida St | OG | 3 | OL | 12 |
| 75 | Xavier Cooper | Washington St | 5T | 3 | IDL | 10 |
| 76 | Rashad Greene | Florida St | FL | 5 | WR | 12 |
| 77 | Tyler Lockett | Kansas St | FL | 6 | WR | 13 |
| 78 | Trey Flowers | Arkansas | EDGE | 13 | EDGE | 13 |
| 79 | Henry Anderson | Stanford | 5T | 4 | IDL | 11 |
| 80 | Ty Sambrailo | Colorado St | OT | 9 | OL | 13 |
| 81 | Donovan Smith | Penn St | OT | 10 | OL | 14 |
| 82 | Damarious Randall | Arizona State | FS | 1 | S | 2 |
| 83 | Ali Marpet | Hobart | OG | 4 | OL | 15 |
| 84 | David Johnson | Northern Iowa | RBC | 1 | RB | 8 |
| 85 | Justin Hardy | East Carolina | FL | 7 | WR | 14 |
| 86 | Lorenzo Mauldin | Louisville | EDGE | 14 | EDGE | 14 |
| 87 | Markus Golden | Missouri | EDGE | 15 | EDGE | 15 |
| 88 | Hroniss Grasu | Oregon | OC | 2 | OL | 16 |
| 89 | D’Joun Smith | Florida Atlantic | NCB | 2 | CB | 12 |
| 90 | David Cobb | Minnesota | RBF | 8 | RB | 9 |
| 91 | Derron Smith | Fresno St | FS | 2 | S | 3 |
| 92 | Senquez Golson | Ole Miss | NCB | 3 | CB | 13 |
| 93 | Jaquiski Tartt | Samford | SS | 2 | S | 4 |
| 94 | Daryl Williams | Oklahoma | OT | 11 | OL | 17 |
| 95 | Mike Davis | South Carolina | RBF | 9 | RB | 10 |
| 96 | Tre McBride | William & Mary | SE | 8 | WR | 15 |
| 97 | Josh Shaw | USC | OCB | 11 | CB | 14 |
| 98 | Doran Grant | Ohio State | OCB | 12 | CB | 15 |
| 99 | Jeff Heuerman | Ohio St | TE | 3 | TE | 3 |
| 100 | Bryce Petty | Baylor | QB | 4 | QB | 4 |
| 101 | Kwon Alexander | LSU | OFIB | 5 | OFB | 7 |
| 102 | Cody Prewitt | Ole Miss | FS | 3 | S | 5 |
| 103 | Jeremiah Poutasi | Utah | OG | 5 | OL | 18 |
| 104 | Za’Darius Smith | Kentucky | EDGE | 16 | EDGE | 16 |
| 105 | Garrett Grayson | Colorado State | QB | 5 | QB | 5 |
| 106 | Kevin White (CB) | TCU | NCB | 4 | CB | 16 |
| 107 | Gabe Wright | Auburn | 3T | 3 | IDL | 12 |
| 108 | Arie Kouandjio | Alabama | OG | 6 | OL | 19 |
| 109 | Jeremy Langford | Michigan St | RBF | 10 | RB | 11 |
| 110 | Jamison Crowder | Duke | SWR | 1 | WR | 16 |
| 111 | Anthony Harris | Virginia | SS | 3 | S | 6 |
| 112 | Marcus Hardison | Arizona St | 3T | 4 | IDL | 13 |
| 113 | Javorius Allen | USC | RBF | 11 | RB | 12 |
| 114 | Gerod Holliman | Louisville | FS | 4 | S | 7 |
| 115 | Rob Havenstein | Wisconsin | OT | 12 | OL | 20 |
| 116 | Tyler Kroft | Rutgers | TE | 4 | TE | 4 |
| 117 | James Sample | Louisville | SS | 4 | S | 8 |
| 118 | Charles Gaines | Louisville | NCB | 5 | CB | 17 |
| 119 | Anthony Chickillo | Miami (FL) | EDGE | 17 | EDGE | 17 |
| 120 | John Miller | Louisville | OG | 7 | OL | 21 |
| 121 | Jacoby Glenn | Central Florida | OCB | 13 | CB | 18 |
| 122 | Jordan Hicks | Texas | OFIB | 6 | OFB | 8 |
| 123 | Ty Montgomery | Stanford | SWR | 2 | WR | 17 |
| 124 | Reese Dismukes | Auburn | OC | 3 | OL | 22 |
| 125 | Chris Conley | Georgia | SE | 9 | WR | 18 |
| 126 | Andy Gallik | Boston College | OC | 4 | OL | 23 |
| 127 | Tony Lippett | Michigan State | FL | 8 | WR | 19 |
| 128 | Josue Matias | Florida St | OG | 8 | OL | 24 |
| 129 | Ben Heeney | Kansas | OFIB | 7 | OFB | 9 |
| 130 | Stefon Diggs | Maryland | SE | 10 | WR | 20 |
| 131 | Kurtis Drummond | Michigan St | FS | 5 | S | 9 |
| 132 | Lorenzo Doss | Tulane | NCB | 6 | CB | 19 |
| 133 | Ben Koyack | Notre Dame | TE | 5 | TE | 5 |
| 134 | Jamil Douglas | Arizona St | OG | 9 | OL | 25 |
| 135 | Christian Covington | Rice | 5T | 5 | IDL | 14 |
| 136 | Tyrus Thompson | Oklahoma | OT | 13 | OL | 26 |
| 137 | Josh Harper | Fresno State | SWR | 3 | WR | 21 |
| 138 | Jarvis Harrison | Texas A&M | OG | 10 | OL | 27 |
| 139 | Ibraheim Campbell | Northwestern | SS | 5 | S | 10 |
| 140 | Max Valles | Virginia | OFOB | 3 | OFB | 10 |
| 141 | Hayes Pullard | USC | OFIB | 8 | OFB | 11 |
| 142 | Ramik Wilson | Georgia | OFIB | 9 | OFB | 12 |
| 143 | Cameron Artis-Payne | Auburn | RBF | 12 | RB | 13 |
| 144 | Chris Hackett | TCU | FS | 6 | S | 11 |
| 145 | Nick O’Leary | Florida St | TE | 6 | TE | 6 |
| 146 | Antwan Goodley | Baylor | SWR | 4 | WR | 22 |
| 147 | Zach Hodges | Harvard | EDGE | 18 | EDGE | 18 |
| 148 | Kenny Bell | Nebraska | FL | 9 | WR | 23 |
| 149 | Durell Eskridge | Syracuse | FS | 7 | S | 12 |
| 150 | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | Southern Miss | NT | 6 | IDL | 15 |
| 151 | Shaquille Mason | Georgia Tech | OC | 5 | OL | 28 |
| 152 | B.J. Finney | Kansas St | OC | 6 | OL | 29 |
| 153 | Corey Robinson | South Carolina | OT | 14 | OL | 30 |
| 154 | Jesse James | Penn State | TE | 7 | TE | 7 |
| 155 | Adrian Amos | Penn St | FS | 8 | S | 13 |
| 156 | Vince Mayle | Washington State | FL | 10 | WR | 24 |
| 157 | Jake Ryan | Michigan | OFIB | 10 | OFB | 13 |
| 158 | Geneo Grissom | Oklahoma | EDGE | 19 | EDGE | 19 |
| 159 | Mike Hull | Penn State | OFIB | 11 | OFB | 14 |
| 160 | Davis Tull | UT-Chattanooga | EDGE | 20 | EDGE | 20 |
| 161 | Ellis McCarthy | UCLA | NT | 7 | IDL | 16 |
| 162 | Quandre Diggs | Texas | NCB | 7 | CB | 20 |
| 163 | Darius Philon | Arkansas | 3T | 5 | IDL | 17 |
| 164 | Dres Anderson | Utah | SE | 11 | WR | 25 |
| 165 | Martrell Spaight | Arkansas | OFOB | 4 | OFB | 15 |
| 166 | Tyeler Davison | Fresno St | NT | 8 | IDL | 18 |
| 167 | Dezmin Lewis | Central Arkansas | SE | 12 | WR | 26 |
| 168 | MyCole Pruitt | Southern Illinois | TE | 8 | TE | 8 |
| 169 | Sean Hickey | Syracuse | OT | 15 | OL | 31 |
| 170 | Cedric Reed | Texas | EDGE | 21 | EDGE | 21 |
| 171 | Mitch Morse | Missouri | OT | 16 | OL | 32 |
| 172 | Sean Mannion | Oregon St | QB | 6 | QB | 6 |
| 173 | Taiwan Jones | Michigan State | OFIB | 12 | OFB | 16 |
| 174 | Lynden Trail | Norfolk St | EDGE | 22 | EDGE | 22 |
| 175 | Blake Bell | Oklahoma | TE | 9 | TE | 9 |
| 176 | Josh Robinson | Mississippi State | RBF | 13 | RB | 14 |
| 177 | Craig Mager | Texas State | OCB | 14 | CB | 21 |
| 178 | Matt Jones | Florida | RBF | 14 | RB | 15 |
| 179 | Frank Clark | Michigan | EDGE | 23 | EDGE | 23 |
| 180 | Clayton Geathers | Central Florida | SS | 6 | S | 14 |
| 181 | Tony Washington | Oregon | OFOB | 5 | OFB | 17 |
| 182 | Malcolm Brown | Texas | RBF | 15 | RB | 16 |
| 183 | Karlos Williams | Florida St | RBF | 16 | RB | 17 |
| 184 | Joey Mbu | Houston | NT | 9 | IDL | 19 |
| 185 | Corey Crawford | Clemson | EDGE | 24 | EDGE | 24 |
| 186 | Ladarius Gunter | Miami FL | OCB | 15 | CB | 22 |
| 187 | JaCorey Shepherd | Kansas | OCB | 16 | CB | 23 |
| 188 | Jalston Fowler | Alabama | FB | 1 | RB | 18 |
| 189 | Titus Davis | Central Michigan | FL | 11 | WR | 27 |
| 190 | Robert Myers | Tennessee State | OG | 11 | OL | 33 |
| 191 | Derrick Lott | Chattanooga | 3T | 6 | IDL | 20 |
| 192 | Nick Marshall | Auburn | OCB | 17 | CB | 24 |
| 193 | Jean Sifrin | Massachusetts | TE | 10 | TE | 10 |
| 194 | Xavier Williams | Northern Iowa | NT | 10 | IDL | 21 |
| 195 | Bryce Hager | Baylor | OFOB | 6 | OFB | 18 |
| 196 | Louis Trinca-Pasat | Iowa | 3T | 7 | IDL | 22 |
| 197 | Max Garcia | Florida | OC | 7 | OL | 34 |
| 198 | Darren Waller | Georgia Tech | SE | 13 | WR | 28 |
| 199 | Justin Coleman | Tennessee | NCB | 8 | CB | 25 |
| 200 | Bobby McCain | Memphis | NCB | 9 | CB | 26 |
| 201 | Wes Saxton | South Alabama | TE | 11 | TE | 11 |
| 202 | Jordan Richards | Stanford | SS | 7 | S | 15 |
| 203 | Kyle Emanuel | North Dakota St | EDGE | 25 | EDGE | 25 |
| 204 | Austin Hill | Arizona | FL | 12 | WR | 29 |
| 205 | Bobby Richardson | Indiana | 3T | 8 | IDL | 23 |
| 206 | Nick Boyle | Delaware | TE | 12 | TE | 12 |
| 207 | Terrence Magee | LSU | RBF | 17 | RB | 19 |
| 208 | E.J. Bibbs | Iowa St | TE | 13 | TE | 13 |
| 209 | Austin Shepherd | Alabama | OG | 12 | OL | 35 |
| 210 | DeAndre Smelter | Georgia Tech | SE | 14 | WR | 30 |
| 211 | Adam Shead | Oklahoma | OG | 13 | OL | 36 |
| 212 | Leterrius Walton | Central Michigan | NT | 11 | IDL | 24 |
| 213 | Xzavier Dickson | Alabama | EDGE | 26 | EDGE | 26 |
| 214 | Mark Glowinski | West Virginia | OG | 14 | OL | 37 |
| 215 | Rannell Hall | UCF | SE | 15 | WR | 31 |
| 216 | Shaquille Riddick | West Virginia | EDGE | 27 | EDGE | 27 |
| 217 | Tyler Varga | Yale | FB | 2 | RB | 20 |
| 218 | Devante Davis | UNLV | SE | 16 | WR | 32 |
| 219 | Damian Swann | Georgia | OCB | 18 | CB | 27 |
| 220 | Jamon Brown | Louisville | OT | 17 | OL | 38 |
| 221 | Deontay Greenberry | Houston | SE | 17 | WR | 33 |
| 222 | Andrew Donnal | Iowa | OT | 18 | OL | 39 |
| 223 | Anthony Jefferson | UCLA | SS | 8 | S | 16 |
| 224 | Amarlo Herrera | Georgia | OFIB | 13 | OFB | 19 |
| 225 | Kaleb Eulls | Mississippi St | 3T | 9 | IDL | 25 |
| 226 | Terry Poole | San Diego St | OT | 19 | OL | 40 |
| 227 | Alani Fua | BYU | OFIB | 14 | OFB | 20 |
| 228 | Trey DePriest | Alabama | OFIB | 15 | OFB | 21 |
| 229 | Shane Carden | East Carolina | QB | 7 | QB | 7 |
| 230 | Deion Barnes | Penn State | EDGE | 28 | EDGE | 28 |
| 231 | Justin Cox | Mississippi St | FS | 9 | S | 17 |
| 232 | Ryan Russell | Purdue | EDGE | 29 | EDGE | 29 |
| 233 | Travis Raciti | San Jose St | 5T | 6 | IDL | 26 |
| 234 | Imoan Claiborne | Northwestern St | NCB | 10 | CB | 28 |
| 235 | Greg Mancz | Toledo | OC | 8 | OL | 41 |
| 236 | Kyshoen Jarrett | Virginia Tech | SS | 9 | S | 18 |
| 237 | John Crockett | North Dakota St | RBF | 18 | RB | 21 |
| 238 | Martin Ifedi | Memphis | EDGE | 30 | EDGE | 30 |
| 239 | Dominique Brown | Louisville | RBF | 19 | RB | 22 |
| 240 | Rory Anderson | South Carolina | TE | 14 | TE | 14 |
| 241 | Mario Alford | West Virginia | SWR | 5 | WR | 34 |
| 242 | Jeff Luc | Cincinnati | OFIB | 16 | OFB | 22 |
| 243 | Trey Williams | Texas A&M | RBC | 2 | RB | 23 |
| 244 | Miles Dieffenbach | Penn St | OG | 15 | OL | 42 |
| 245 | Tayo Fabuluje | TCU | OT | 20 | OL | 43 |
| 246 | Jon Feliciano | Miami (FL) | OG | 16 | OL | 44 |
| 247 | Davaris Daniels | Notre Dame | FL | 13 | WR | 35 |
| 248 | Quinton Spain | West Virginia | OG | 17 | OL | 45 |
| 249 | Chaz Green | Florida | OT | 21 | OL | 46 |
| 250 | Ray Drew | Georgia | 5T | 7 | IDL | 27 |
View Comments
Good work Arif there are some guys who are in there I like that are supposed to go later like Joey Mbu and Xavier Williams I am surprised to see go before Waller but I like it skoll Vikings drink from the skull cap of Rogers
Nice work Arif.The only gripe I have is that you have quoted many of the sources I use in your article.
How am I going to beat Carl in the mock draft competition next year if you are going to expose all my secrets!
;)
http://www.catscratchreader.com/2015/4/27/8495917/dursts-2015-nfl-draft-top-100
1. DE Leonard Williams, USC - Just a notch below Mario Williams and Julius Peppers
2. OLB/DE Vic Beasley, Clemson - top edge-rusher. best chance for double-digit sacks.
3. QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon - needs to be taken by team that will fully embrace Oregon/Eagles philosophy.
4. OLB/DE Shane Ray, Missouri - may drop out of top-20 with news that Ray will require foot surgery.
5. WR Kevin White, WVU - almost always will be bigger, stronger, faster than opponent.
6. WR Amari Cooper, Alabama - rookie of the year candidate regardless of destination.
7. WR DeVante Parker, Louisville - great hands (only two drops), large catch-radius. looks more like a #2.
8. OLB/DE Alvin Dupree, Kentucky - Compared to Jamie Collins, but Dupree is a bigger/more explosive athlete.
9. OLB/DE Dante Fowler, Florida - Competitive, high motor. Not elite pass-rusher or dropping back.
10. T D.J. Humphries, Florida - College tape looked bad due to multiple injuries and playing most of his collegiate career about 275.
11. CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State - Thin-framed, fast. Mind-set, confidence needed for NFL corner.
12. T Andrus Peat, Stanford - Best length of the OTs, and well-coached at Stanford.
13. T La'El Collins, LSU - could be all-pro as rookie at guard, or just-a-guy at OT. Was on-ground too much at LSU.
14. DT Eddie Goldman, FSU - Scheme diverse. Very athletic NT.
15. DL Danny Shelton, Washington - seemed to have difficulty keeping weight down. overrated pass-rush.
16. DL Malcom Brown, Texas - scheme-diverse, but better in penetrating scheme.
17. S Landon Collins, Alabama - Kam Chancelor-type SS. liability in coverage.
18. OLB/DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska - difficulty keeping weight on, and chronic drug-use related?
19. OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa - Just as good as Bulaga/Reiff...above average OT, but all-pro at guard.
20. T Ereck Flowers, Miami - better chance than Scherff/Collins to stay on the outside.
21. T T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh - very raw. very athletic. project, who is NFL-ready as a run-blocker.
22. DL Arik Armstead, Oregon - 3-4 DE. height can be both an asset and a curse. has the look of an underachiever.
23. CB Marcus Peters, Washington - best press-man corner in draft. character concerns.
24. DL Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma - Michael Brokers with back issues.
25. WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State -
26. LB Shaq Thompson, Washington - hybrids on defense necessary due to hybrids on offense.
27. RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin - Why spend a first rounder on RB?
28. G/T Jake Fisher, Oregon - A least as good as Kyle Long. may be better at guard.
29. LB Benardrick McKinney, Miss State - Massive ILB with OLB pass-rush potential.
30. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma - ran slower than I thought. upside is too great for 32 teams to pass.
31.WR Devin Funchess, Michigan - Kelvin Benjamin's success helps salvage his draft stock.
32. C Cameron Erving, FSU - Only two centers in NFL that are better athletes are the Pouncey brothers.
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33. QB Jameis Winston, FSU - Would you give him 20 million or make him the face of the franchise?
34. CB Byron Jones, UConn - Positional versatility, high character, elite athletic skills. chronic shoulder injury.
35. CB Ronald Darby, FSU - sub six-foot, but world-class speed.
36. EDGE Danielle Hunter, LSU - Better length than any of the top-five edge-rushers.
37. EDGE Eli Harold, Virginia - I bet some team has him above Ray (medicals) and Gregory (drugs)
38. TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota -
39. DL Carl Davis, Iowa - Huge, but didn't keep motor on
40. DL Grady Jarrett, Clemson - top 3-tech DT in draft. first round?
41. CB/S Eric Rowe, Utah - cover-two corner is best position, but offers much flexibility.
42. LB Stephone Anthony, Clemson - everything you would want in an ILB, 3-4 or 4-3.
43. LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA - able to move backward better than Perryman.
44. RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana -
45. RB Todd Gurley, Georgia - injured all three seasons at Georgia. Body does not hold-up to his running style.
46. T Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M - considered top-10 if he entered 2014. did a "Clowney" in 2014, then ACL.
47. DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA - major injury concerns. strong/explosive DE
48. DE Preston Smith, Miss State - frame for 4-3 base DE, who can rush from inside.
49. WR Breshad Perriman, UCF - arguably top deep threat in draft. poor hands.
50. DL Mario Edwards Jr., FSU - misused as 3-4 DE at FSU. future could be 3-tech?
51. WR Nelson Agholor, USC - very likely top-50. Caught 76.3% of the passes thrown his way. punt-returner.
52. CB P.J. Williams, FSU - another drama-filled CB with great measureables.
53. CB Jalen Collins, LSU - why did he lose starting job to three different players? Drugs?!
54. DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas - a great 4-3 left DE, with power to set edge against NFL RTs. bull-rush.
55. RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State - knee concern just getting out. Has Matt Forte running/catching skills.
56. WR Devin Smith, Ohio State - best deep ball receiver in draft, but was a "package player" in college.
57. WR Sammie Coates, Auburn - too athletic to drop any further, but worst ball skills of top 25 WRs.
58. OLB Lorenzo Mauldin , Louisville - experienced playing 3-4 OLB, gives him a head-start.
59. CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest - the best off-man corner, but has struggled to keep weight up.
60. S Damarious Randall, Arizona State - The top Safety prospect of Mayock, Cosell, and S.I.'s Doug Faraar.
61. T Donovan Smith, Penn State - I prefer taking slow-footed OTs and making them guards.
62. G Laken Tomlinson, Duke -allowed 4 pressures, 0 knockdowns all season. outstanding at Senior Bowl.
63. G A.J. Cann, South Carolina - arguably best pure guard.
64. RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama - Greg Cosell favorite. IMO makes himself a target by running too tall.
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65. WR Tyler Lockett, Kansas State - smallish, with inconsistent hands. lightning in a bottle. DJack potential.
66. CB Alex Carter, Stanford - underrated. great size without all the drama that comes from most CBs.
67. LB Paul Dawson, TCU - probably going higher, but small/slow/and not liked by teammates and/or coaches?
68. CB Josh Shaw, USC - experienced at safety and corner. Ideal Tampa-two CB.
69. EDGE Nate Orchard, Utah - sack machine got no love by analysts. "average athlete and one year wonder"
70. EDGE Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky - one of only a few with ideal 4-3 frame. still relatively new to the game.
71. LB Denzel Perryman, Miami - undersized. great filling the hole and making the tackle. not great in coverage.
72. DL Michael Bennett, Ohio State - undersized 3-tech.
73. WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami - very fast, but small, and does not win contested catches.
74. CB Quinten Rollins, Miami of Ohio - natural athlete, but can a guy with one year of college ball survive in the NFL?
75. RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska - not a lead back. while ball security improved, pass-blocking did not.
76. RB Duke Johnson, Miami - satellite/space player that goes down on first contact too much. long injury history.
77. DL Henry Anderson, Stanford - top-three 3-4 DE, but NFL does not like Stanford defenders.
78. TE Clive Walford, Miami - second-best TE in a weak class, but Jesse James has more upside.
79. LB Kwon Alexander, LSU - underrated. as a WOLB, there is little difference btw him and Shaq Thompson.
80. OT, Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma - most seem to like Williams better, but I felt Thompson was better.
81. OT, Darryl Williams, Oklahoma
82. RB Karlos Williams, Florida State - very comfortable on third-down, but little running instincts.
83. S Adrian Amos, Penn State - best coverage safety, ideal for team frequently using "big-nickel" (3 safeties)
84. G Arie Kouandjio, Alabama - underrated due to brother's failures, but shares Cyrus' knee concerns.
85. G Jamil Douglas, Arizona State - perfect guard for Shanahan-type zone-based running game
86. T Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State - needs to add strength.
87. WR Rashad Greene, FSU - smooth and refined, but height/weight/speed offer little upside.
88. S, Cody Prewitt, Mississippi - went from highly overrated, to not talked about at all.
89. WR Tre McBride, William & Mary - Poor mans' Perriman
90. G Tre Jackson, FSU -
91. CB Steven Nelson, Oregon State - only CB in nation to not miss a single tackle in 2014.
92. CB Kevin White, TCU - not THAT much difference between him and Jason Verrett.
93. T Corey Robinson, South Carolina - RT only, and not scheme diverse.
94. G Ali Marpet, Hobart - At some point, Marpet will look over his head, but it has not happened yet.
95. S Ibraheim Campbell, Northwestern - can do everything you want a safety to do, but not elite at anything
96. DL Xavier Cooper, Washington State
97. CB Doran Grant, Ohio State - underrated, fast, cover man.
98. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA - someone has to be the third QB, and Hundley is younger and more athletic than Petty
99. QB Bryce Petty, Baylor - someone has to be the third QB, and Petty is a better point-guard QB and passer.
100. DB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon - best CB ball-skills but poor height/weight/speed before tearing his ACL