Great summary of what makes Bridgewater so good. Also love the work in showing how he can be expected to fit into Turner's scheme.
...
Particularly like the point about Jennings. His first season in MN was widely panned, but most of the blame for that belongs to Ponder. Jennings' production in the games where Cassel played was solid --
55 targets, 41 catches (74.5%), 491 yards (12.0 YPC), 4 TDs in the 7 games where Cassel played most of the game
vs
46 targets, 27 catches (58.7%), 313 yards (11.6 YPC), 0 TDs in 8 games where Ponder or Freeman played most of the game (Jennings was hurt for the Seattle game)
Extrapolating Jennings' numbers in the Cassel-dominated games to a 15 game season (allowing 1 week off for injury): 118 targets, 88 catches, 1052 yards, 8-9 TDs. That would have put him top 12-20 in the league for receptions, yards and TDs, despite missing a game for injury.
I bet Jennings will put together a 1000 yard season if Bridgewater plays all year.
The notion that Bridgewater, or any college prospect, rises and falls "over the course of a year" is specious. Where a prospect is "supposed" to go is nothing more than than media conjecture. But the media doesn't get to sit in on interviews, nor do they speak with their high school coaches or have access to background checks. Matter of fact, the media doesn't even have access to a college's "coaches tape", i.e., All-22 footage. That's why every draft consists of prospects that go "earlier" and "later" than they were supposed to.
As Greg Cosell wrote:
"Many in the media pegged Bridgewater as the consensus best quarterback as the college bowl season ended in early January. The phrase 'most NFL ready' was often attached to his name. However, Bridgewater's high standing seems to have changed over the past few weeks. The reason is the nature of the process, not the meaningless concept of "rising" and "falling" that permeates the airwaves. Keep in mind that for the majority of NFL coaches, the NFL scouting combine in late February is their initial introduction to college players. It's often the first time they see them. Then, they start evaluating the film in depth, and draw conclusions based on comparative study and research."
You guys are going a bit overboard with your love for T-Bridge. He's a better prospect than Ponder ever was; but, of course, that's not saying a lot. Football Outsiders determined awhile back that one out of every, like, 14 QB's drafted -- regardless of what round they go in -- ever go on to be considered even servicable QB's in the NFL (it has the highest 'bust percentage' of any position... and it's not even close). Based on those odds and the fact that so many teams in desperate need of a QB (whom employ people who make evaluating prospects their livelihood) passed on Bridgewater, I'd say there exists legitimate concerns that drop him far from the Guaranteed Success Zone.
I don't subscribe to the "other teams didn't like what they saw, so there must be nothing there" philosophy. Also, Bridgewater having a late first/early second grade from execs doesn't change my opinion of him at all. I did not pour hours into my evaluation of the player in order to be swayed that easily. I will readily admit there are things I don't have access to (all-22, interviews, etc...) but I've put what I see from what I can get my hands on out there and we'll have to see how things end up.
irstound QBs (Bridgewater pick have a way higher success rate. If you evaluate % based on 1st round and QB friendly system (O-coordinator + some offensive talent) The % increases even more dramatically. So in conclusion: Bridgewater Rd 1 pick + Norv Turner OC + Quality Offensive talent = Bridgewater with a very good chance of developing into a successful starting QB. "AND Yes" - It is no guarantee of success - But I think 1 in 14odds based on any QB taken any round by any staff is a nonsense stat.
How can the fact that any number of teams passed on a given player ever be used as an argument against that player's prospects?
The later a player is drafted, the less likely he is to pan out, but that is a different argument.
Right now, as a late first rounder, Bridgewater has a certain statistical likelihood of success (better than your 1 in 14, which includes 7th rounders, right?).
At least anecdotally, that probability seems bettered by factoring in Norv Turner (given his past success, but also the demonstrable difference between him and Bill Musgrave). To me, the Vikings look much better with Bridgewater than they did three weeks ago.
Really great analysis. I'm going to go back and read it at least a couple more times because you really laid out Bridgewater's fit with the NT's likely scheme and the WRs, it'll give me something else to look for when the season kicks off.
Thank you, for all the work!
Wow, that was a great article. Good work!
Great article! The GIFs and play descriptions did a very good job furthering my basic understanding of offensive schemes and what is required of the players.
Somewhat related: Arif, you mentioned Blood, Sweat, and Chalk is a worthwhile read - have you ever put together a list & description of good football related books to read? You seem to be fairly well read given that you talk a good bit about books in your articles/podcast, and an article like this could give some people (me) something to do over the summer with a bit more direction.
I know you didn't ask me, but I have a comment. Blood, Sweat and Chalk or The Essential Smart Football are good books to start with. BS&C has a little bit more storytelling to it with a focus on where systems came from. Essiential Smart Football gets a little bit more into specific x's and o's, but it's not too dissimilar.
I loved Essential Smart Football, was my summer read last year. I just bought BS&C from the link above (I hope that helps somehow) and am looking forward to another good read!
Thanks for the response - I should have opened the question up for anyone. After I finish Collision Low Crossers (very good thus far), I will likely be reading those two.
Cassel, Norv, Ponder, Teddy and receivers and AD all gather in a room and look at this.
Ponder ponders to himself, "Dang so that is how you play QB, how does he do that?"
Cassel thinks to himself "Dang I wish I was that good."
Norv smiles and says, "It is going to be a fair competition for #1 QB"
Teddy says, "Hey lets get to work."
(Oh and AD and all the receivers are just smiling and looking at ____.) Well you fill in the blank.
Great article and good to paste it again when Teddy is the # QB in the third preseason game and 1st regular season game. Cassel # 2 Ponder 3 but they are looking at other teams cuts.
Darren -
Made an account just for this. Great write up, and I'm happy to see your name popping up years after I stopped posting at MVN. Your Anthony Barr write-up was great as well.
Looking forward to more awesome contributions,
- ET
Loved the article! Thanks for the great anaylsis. Also loved the Barr article, keep it up!
i wish i was there - you guys in the area have a great opportunity. bud grant is having a 3 day garage sale
one of my brothers lives in bloom., near bud's house, so i just called my bro and told him to get his butt over to bud's house for bud's garage sale, and he says, "i just got back", he bought a rifle, some other hunting gear and a bunch of other stuff, his gf got a couple of jerseys and stuff, too. he's said he's been there before to other garage sales bud has had, and he's talked to bud quite a bit. man, i wish i was there! my bro is going back and i told him to get me some vikings stuff and see if bud would talk to me on the phone. i'll let everybody know how it works out
ok, so my bro went back and got some more stuff, and got me a shirt, but he said it was crazy busy this time, so no chance to talk to bud this time. then he stopped at another sale in the neighborhood and it turned out to be at chuck foreman's ex-wife's place
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This is beautiful, I'm drooling a bit.
Great summary of what makes Bridgewater so good. Also love the work in showing how he can be expected to fit into Turner's scheme.
...
Particularly like the point about Jennings. His first season in MN was widely panned, but most of the blame for that belongs to Ponder. Jennings' production in the games where Cassel played was solid --
55 targets, 41 catches (74.5%), 491 yards (12.0 YPC), 4 TDs in the 7 games where Cassel played most of the game
vs
46 targets, 27 catches (58.7%), 313 yards (11.6 YPC), 0 TDs in 8 games where Ponder or Freeman played most of the game (Jennings was hurt for the Seattle game)
Extrapolating Jennings' numbers in the Cassel-dominated games to a 15 game season (allowing 1 week off for injury): 118 targets, 88 catches, 1052 yards, 8-9 TDs. That would have put him top 12-20 in the league for receptions, yards and TDs, despite missing a game for injury.
I bet Jennings will put together a 1000 yard season if Bridgewater plays all year.
The notion that Bridgewater, or any college prospect, rises and falls "over the course of a year" is specious. Where a prospect is "supposed" to go is nothing more than than media conjecture. But the media doesn't get to sit in on interviews, nor do they speak with their high school coaches or have access to background checks. Matter of fact, the media doesn't even have access to a college's "coaches tape", i.e., All-22 footage. That's why every draft consists of prospects that go "earlier" and "later" than they were supposed to.
As Greg Cosell wrote:
"Many in the media pegged Bridgewater as the consensus best quarterback as the college bowl season ended in early January. The phrase 'most NFL ready' was often attached to his name. However, Bridgewater's high standing seems to have changed over the past few weeks. The reason is the nature of the process, not the meaningless concept of "rising" and "falling" that permeates the airwaves. Keep in mind that for the majority of NFL coaches, the NFL scouting combine in late February is their initial introduction to college players. It's often the first time they see them. Then, they start evaluating the film in depth, and draw conclusions based on comparative study and research."
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/blake-bortles--teddy-bridgewater-raising-concern-over-basic-skills-191421367-nfl.html
Phil Savage had Bridgewater pegged as a late-first/early-second round prospect when the media evaluators all had him going first overall (see https://twitter.com/SeniorBowlPhil/status/461594299327844352).
You guys are going a bit overboard with your love for T-Bridge. He's a better prospect than Ponder ever was; but, of course, that's not saying a lot. Football Outsiders determined awhile back that one out of every, like, 14 QB's drafted -- regardless of what round they go in -- ever go on to be considered even servicable QB's in the NFL (it has the highest 'bust percentage' of any position... and it's not even close). Based on those odds and the fact that so many teams in desperate need of a QB (whom employ people who make evaluating prospects their livelihood) passed on Bridgewater, I'd say there exists legitimate concerns that drop him far from the Guaranteed Success Zone.
I don't subscribe to the "other teams didn't like what they saw, so there must be nothing there" philosophy. Also, Bridgewater having a late first/early second grade from execs doesn't change my opinion of him at all. I did not pour hours into my evaluation of the player in order to be swayed that easily. I will readily admit there are things I don't have access to (all-22, interviews, etc...) but I've put what I see from what I can get my hands on out there and we'll have to see how things end up.
irstound QBs (Bridgewater pick have a way higher success rate. If you evaluate % based on 1st round and QB friendly system (O-coordinator + some offensive talent) The % increases even more dramatically. So in conclusion: Bridgewater Rd 1 pick + Norv Turner OC + Quality Offensive talent = Bridgewater with a very good chance of developing into a successful starting QB. "AND Yes" - It is no guarantee of success - But I think 1 in 14odds based on any QB taken any round by any staff is a nonsense stat.
How can the fact that any number of teams passed on a given player ever be used as an argument against that player's prospects?
The later a player is drafted, the less likely he is to pan out, but that is a different argument.
Right now, as a late first rounder, Bridgewater has a certain statistical likelihood of success (better than your 1 in 14, which includes 7th rounders, right?).
At least anecdotally, that probability seems bettered by factoring in Norv Turner (given his past success, but also the demonstrable difference between him and Bill Musgrave). To me, the Vikings look much better with Bridgewater than they did three weeks ago.
Really great analysis. I'm going to go back and read it at least a couple more times because you really laid out Bridgewater's fit with the NT's likely scheme and the WRs, it'll give me something else to look for when the season kicks off.
Thank you, for all the work!
Wow, that was a great article. Good work!
Great article! The GIFs and play descriptions did a very good job furthering my basic understanding of offensive schemes and what is required of the players.
Somewhat related: Arif, you mentioned Blood, Sweat, and Chalk is a worthwhile read - have you ever put together a list & description of good football related books to read? You seem to be fairly well read given that you talk a good bit about books in your articles/podcast, and an article like this could give some people (me) something to do over the summer with a bit more direction.
I know you didn't ask me, but I have a comment. Blood, Sweat and Chalk or The Essential Smart Football are good books to start with. BS&C has a little bit more storytelling to it with a focus on where systems came from. Essiential Smart Football gets a little bit more into specific x's and o's, but it's not too dissimilar.
I loved Essential Smart Football, was my summer read last year. I just bought BS&C from the link above (I hope that helps somehow) and am looking forward to another good read!
Thanks for the response - I should have opened the question up for anyone. After I finish Collision Low Crossers (very good thus far), I will likely be reading those two.
Cassel, Norv, Ponder, Teddy and receivers and AD all gather in a room and look at this.
Ponder ponders to himself, "Dang so that is how you play QB, how does he do that?"
Cassel thinks to himself "Dang I wish I was that good."
Norv smiles and says, "It is going to be a fair competition for #1 QB"
Teddy says, "Hey lets get to work."
(Oh and AD and all the receivers are just smiling and looking at ____.) Well you fill in the blank.
Great article and good to paste it again when Teddy is the # QB in the third preseason game and 1st regular season game. Cassel # 2 Ponder 3 but they are looking at other teams cuts.
Darren -
Made an account just for this. Great write up, and I'm happy to see your name popping up years after I stopped posting at MVN. Your Anthony Barr write-up was great as well.
Looking forward to more awesome contributions,
- ET
Loved the article! Thanks for the great anaylsis. Also loved the Barr article, keep it up!
i wish i was there - you guys in the area have a great opportunity. bud grant is having a 3 day garage sale
http://gsalr.com/bud-grants-sale-bloomington-mn-20081190.html
one of my brothers lives in bloom., near bud's house, so i just called my bro and told him to get his butt over to bud's house for bud's garage sale, and he says, "i just got back", he bought a rifle, some other hunting gear and a bunch of other stuff, his gf got a couple of jerseys and stuff, too. he's said he's been there before to other garage sales bud has had, and he's talked to bud quite a bit. man, i wish i was there! my bro is going back and i told him to get me some vikings stuff and see if bud would talk to me on the phone. i'll let everybody know how it works out
ok, so my bro went back and got some more stuff, and got me a shirt, but he said it was crazy busy this time, so no chance to talk to bud this time. then he stopped at another sale in the neighborhood and it turned out to be at chuck foreman's ex-wife's place
fun read, good job
i see dead phackers