Soon you’ll notice a “fantasy projections” page now at Vikings Territory at the top (UPDATE: It’s up at the top now!), which is my attempt to provide preseason predictions for every relevant fantasy player in the league. As with most projections out there, there’s a strong statistical approach with rigor and history applied, followed by completely subjective modifications that ruin the whole point of rigorous statistics. Even more precariously, the statistical approach is relatively untested and openly experimental.
I wouldn’t necessarily stake my fantasy league on these projections if I were you, but I think it’s a good experiment to see if a game script-centric approach is one worth pursuing. If you don’t want to read the thoughts behind the process, just take a look at the projections for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends directly. They should change as the offseason progresses. There’s going to be some interesting numbers in there. If anything seems off, it’s probably misperception on my part, but I’ll just blame the model.