Poll of the Week: Predict the Vikings’ Final Record

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Dec 16, 2015
Image courtesy of Vikings.com

What’s the difference between an 8-5 record and a 6-7 record? The simple answer would be two wins. Two games separate the Vikings, who are currently 8-5, from a pack of 6-7 teams “in the hunt” for the NFC’s sixth playoff spot. But two games also separate the Vikings from a familiar face — their 2014 counterparts.

At this time last year, the Vikings were 6-7 and eliminated from playoff contention. They’d go on to lose two of their final three games and finish the season at 7-9. Respectable, given the year-long absence of Adrian Peterson and the arrival of first-year coach Mike Zimmer, but not enough to push them into January. It was a season that, despite a losing record, inspired hope in the Minnesota fanbase and promised future success.

This season, the Vikings have built on what made them successful in 2014 and sit firmly entrenched in the NFC playoff picture. Two more wins through 13 games may not seem like a major leap, but these Vikings are a much improved team for a number of reasons. From the emergence of the defense to the return of Peterson, Minnesota has a chance to finish the year with 11 wins and play their first meaningful postseason football since 2012. Will they hit double digits in the win column, or will they flounder to end the season as they did last year?

Right now, the Vikings have a 73 percent chance to beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based models, the Vikings are favored in two of their final three games. If they were to win both of those (home) games, they’d finish the year at 10-6 and almost guarantee themselves a position in the playoffs. Before they even take the field on Sunday, though, the website gives Minnesota a 92 percent probability to make the playoffs. Vikings fans are in luck — they’ll most likely get to see their favorite team play after the conclusion of the regular season.

Yesterday, I tweeted my final regular season predictions, and I’m sticking by those as I write today. I fully expect the Vikings to beat the Chicago Bears and New York Giants before losing at Lambeau Field to the Green Bay Packers in Week 17:

The Vikings beat the Bears 23-20 in Week 8 thanks in large part to Adrian Peterson and Blair Walsh. Peterson rushed for 103 yards and Walsh booted the last-second field goal to clinch the victory. It was Minnesota’s first win at Soldier Field since 2007 and a statement that they’d quickly become legitimate contenders in the NFC North. Chicago is headed to TCF Bank Stadium on a two-game losing streak and assuredly out of playoff contention. Jay Cutler, though, always seems to play well against the Vikings. And with “nothing to lose,” Chicago could easily steal a game in Minnesota this week.

I don’t see it happening, though. If any team can surprise the Vikings, it’s the New York Giants. They’re not a historically great team, and at 6-7, only have a shot at the playoffs because their division is so awful. But they’ve shown the can score points in bunches, most recently beating the Miami Dolphins 31-24 on Monday Night. Eli Manning threw four touchdowns, and Xavier Rhodes will have his hands full trying to cover Odell Beckham Jr., who caught nine passes for 166 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Outside of Beckham, the Giants are thin at almost every other position on offense and field one of the league’s worst defenses.

And finally, the Green Bay Packers. Those terrible, rotten Green Bay Packers. The Vikings lost the first meeting 13-30 in November, and FiveThirtyEight gives Minnesota just a 27 percent chance to win in Week 17. Although the Packers have won two straight, they play two road games against the Oakland Raiders and Arizona Cardinals before the final matchup. Their final game may very well decide the fate of the NFC North, and if the Vikings win, they’d move to 11-5 to end the season.

The Vikings are a solid team with a bright future. They’ve already eclipsed their win total from 2014 and could very well win out to end the season. Their remaining games aren’t “walks in the park,” but the Vikings have an excellent chance to win two, if not three of their remaining matchups this year. If they do, they’ll most likely finish as the NFC’s third seed and NFC North Division champs. No matter the outcome, this season has been a success, and the outlook is even brighter in 2016 and beyond.

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