Nov 24, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold signed a one-year deal with the purple team 10 months ago, while general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah drafted Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy six weeks later.
No one is too sure if Darnold will return to the Vikings in 2025 — it’ll be a popular debate topic when the 2024 regular season ends. The fanbase’s enthusiasm has swung toward retaining Darnold because of his 36 touchdowns and the team’s 14-2 record through 17 weeks.
And when the offseason hits, these are the Vikings’ five options for Darnold, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most likely to materialize).
The least likely of all outcomes, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would roll out a three-year, $150 million contract for Darnold, nominating him as the QB1 for the foreseeable future.
Minnesota would have to decide on stashing J.J. McCarthy on the bench or trading him to the highest bidder. Both options would be on the table, for better or worse.
Here, Darnold’s asking price would be too spendy for Minnesota’s brass, and the 27-year-old would hit the open market and probably sign with a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, or Tennessee Titans.
Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell would adhere to the original plan from April — start J.J. McCarthy on four more years of a rookie contract.
Instead of a long-term deal, Minnesota could perhaps sign Darnold for two years and $80 million, for example. The contract would show him the utmost respect and be similar to Baker Mayfield’s extension in Tampa Bay.
The Vikings would then probably sit on McCarthy for two seasons and slow-roll his development like the Green Bay Packers’ model: Brett Favre —> Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Rodgers —> Jordan Love.
The NFL’s franchise tag for quarterback should check in around $40 million in 2025.
With this method, Minnesota could prevent Darnold from leaving and pay his fair market value of $40 million. The Vikings would keep McCarthy close to the QB1 job and have him available if Darnold got hurt.
It’s worth noting that this strategy would also slash most of Minnesota’s 2025 cap space for free agents.
At first glance a couple of months ago, applying the franchise tag on Darnold and trading him felt like shady business, possibly a shrewd and rude maneuver to use on the quarterback.
Now, however, the Vikings might be stupid not to use this method.
There is a chance that Adofo-Mensah can thread the needle of looking out for his franchise while appeasing Darnold simultaneously. Use the franchise tag, and ask Darnold, “Where would you like to be traded?”
Minnesota would then likely receive a 2nd-Round draft pick or something similar for Darnold, paving the way for McCarthy at QB1 in Minnesota.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.