Sep 8, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) carries the ball as New York Giants defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches (93) pursues during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images.
Back in my NFL exec years, I had a love-hate relationship with Thursday games. I loved the mini-bye that followed to get a weekend off during the long season. And I always liked having our teams on Thursday national TV games. I did not like the short week our team had to prepare for a game, and it was worse when we had to travel, as I felt the Thursday game at home was a big advantage for our opponent.
That’s the case this week for the Vikings, who must bounce back from the close loss to the Lions and travel to Los Angeles for a meeting with the up-and-down Rams. Even at 2-4, they’re a dangerous team, and QB Matthew Stafford will have his favorite target — Cooper Kupp — back in the lineup after missing the last four games with an ankle injury.
The Vikings need to win to keep pace with the Lions, who should easily handle Tennessee. The Packers and Bears are also in the race, with Green Bay at 5-2 and Chicago at 4-2.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Rams on Thursday night:
1. Clean up the penalty issues, especially the pre-snap variety, which were costly against the Lions and have hampered the offense to a certain extent all season. Courtesy of the StarTribune’s Mark Craig, he wrote this week that the Vikings have the third-most offensive pre-snap penalties (21), which have contributed to nine stalled drives.
Conversely, the Rams lead the NFL in fewest penalties (33) while the Vikings rank 13th with 53.
2. Outrush the Rams: This strategy worked the first five games when the Vikings outrushed their opponents and won, and it almost worked against Detroit, which had only five more rushing yards on Sunday.
This is a good week to pound it on the ground against the Rams’ 30th-ranked run defense. Let Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler, and the offensive line, with help from C.J. Ham and the tight ends (which may finally include T.J. Hockenson) and wide receivers, run it more than Sam Darnold passes against a defense that just had three interceptions of Gardner Minshew in the 20-15 win over the Raiders.
Jones looked good against the Lions, with 116 combined yards rushing and receiving. He said he came out of the game feeling fine, so it’s a big positive that his hamstring injury didn’t flare up.
The Rams’ rushing attack led by Kyren Williams ranks 26th, but he does have eight rushing TDs to tie Derrick Henry for the NFL lead. The Vikings’ No. 2 run defense should be able to shut down Williams and the Rams on the ground, even though it’s a big concern that leading tackler Blake Cashman—who was sorely missed in the Lions game against the run and pass—is unlikely to return until Week 9 against the Colts due to his turf toe injury.
2. Pressure Stafford and force turnovers: The Vikings’ defense has 24 sacks (third-ranked), and Stafford has been sacked 17 times (10th most). If the Vikings can stop the run and make the Rams one-dimensional, it helps their chances to get to Stafford and force a couple of interceptions or fumbles. Stafford has thrown only three touchdown passes with four interceptions this season. The Vikings lead the league with 11 picks but didn’t force any from the hot Jared Goff.
After matching wits with Lions OC Ben Johnson, it’s another fascinating chess match between Vikings DC Brian Flores and Rams Coach Sean McVay, who calls the plays for the Rams’ offense. It will be an exciting night for Kevin O’Connell as he has his first matchup as a head coach against McVay, whom he coached under as Offensive Coordinator of the Rams’ Super Bowl champion team in 2021.
3. Cover Kupp: when he’s in the lineup, Stafford generally looks his way, and the Vikings defenders have to be better than they were against the Lions’ top WR—Amon-Ra St. Brown (eight catches, 112 yards, one TD when Goff beat the blitz for a 35-yard TD toss).
The Vikings’ corners must be better than they were on Sunday, and the Vikings’ best corner—Stephon Gilmore—can’t have a second shaky game in a row. But the Rams will surely test Byron Murphy as the weaker link in the secondary, and the Vikings’ linebackers have to do a better job on Williams out of the backfield than they did against the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (who is a superior back, but Williams has 14 receptions this season).
4. Give Darnold time to hit Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor and target JJ more. Plus, Darnold must be better in key moments: The Jets and Lions both had four sacks of Darnold. He needs time to find his receivers and not force throws (he now has five interceptions this season).
Jefferson must have double-digit targets (he says he’s “definitely sick of 80, 90-yard games” as he has only one 100+ yard game this season (vs. San Francisco). He had 10 games with over 100 receiving yards in 2022 when he was Offensive Player of the Year.
Darnold must make better decisions and be more accurate than he was on the missed two-point conversion and 3rd-and-4 overthrow of Jefferson late in the Lions game. He played so well the first four weeks, struggled against the Jets’ elite pass defense, and was up and down against Detroit. He needs to get back to his early level of play, which was excellent.
5. Get Hockenson in the lineup: He says he’s 100%, so get him in there to give Darnold another excellent, Pro Bowl-caliber target. Johnny Mundt did not get it done against Detroit, and the Vikings need Hockenson, which will also take some pressure off Jefferson and open things up for J.J./Jets, Addison, and Nailor.
6. Win or even in the turnover battle: This is very simple, and it is always a key, which the Vikings have done in every game this season.
7. The amazing Will Reichard stays hot: Wouldn’t it have been exciting to see the Vikings’ perfect kicker (30 for 30, including 4 for 4 from 50+) have a shot from 68 yards to beat the Lions? I think he would’ve made it, but it’s ridiculous that the Vikings couldn’t get lined up right and were penalized five yards for illegal formation. It’s just as bad that Darnold was sacked before he could throw a Hail Mary on the final play.
The Vikings should have an edge with Reichard over a fellow sixth-round rookie kicker–Joshua Karty–who has missed two field goals and two extra points. Also, on special teams, the Rams have a pair of good returners—Blake Corum on kickoffs (28.2-yard average) and Xavier Smith on punts (15.8 yards per return). So Reichard needs to boot his kickoffs too deep to return, as he has done most of the season, and Ryan Wright needs his punts to be at the sideline or high enough to force fair catches.
8. Crowd noise shouldn’t be a big problem at L.A.’s SoFi Stadium, where many Vikings fans will be in the house.
Predicting the outcome: The Vikings are the better team on offense and defense and should win this game if they recover from a physical and draining game with Detroit. The short week and the travel are issues, but I think the Vikings will be determined to get back on the winning track, which is necessary in the tight NFC North race.
I think the Vikings win 27-17.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 7:
1. The Bears have the toughest test in Week 8 among NFC North teams when they go to Washington to take on the NFC East-leading Commanders (at 5-2 coming off a 40-7 demolition of lowly Carolina). If Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is out with a rib injury, I think the Bears will beat backup Marcus Mariota. If Daniels can play effectively, Washington should win.
Detroit — at home — will take care of 1-5 Tennessee. The Packers have a possible trap game at 2-5 Jacksonville if Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence has a big game and if the Pack is looking ahead to next week’s huge divisional game at Lambeau against the Lions. But Green Bay will win this week and improve to 6-2.
2. The Chiefs should stay unbeaten by winning in Las Vegas. 4-2 Philadelphia at 3-4 Cincinnati is a close matchup, and I’m picking Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Tampa Bay is reeling from injuries to star receivers Chris Godwin (out for the year with a dislocated ankle) and Mike Evans (likely out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring). Atlanta played poorly in losing at home to Seattle on Sunday, but I think the Falcons will beat the Bucs in this battle of division co-leaders to get the season sweep and a big leg up in the NFC South.
The Sunday night game features two teams that have been battling injury issues and are off to shaky starts. It’s 3-3 Dallas at 3-4 San Francisco. The Niners hammered the Cowboys 42-10 last year at home, and I think it won’t be as easy this time, but they’ll get another win.
The 5-2 Steelers and revived Russell Wilson, along with a stout D, will further sink the 2-5 Jets and the Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams duo when they meet on Monday night in Pittsburgh.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl