Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
When the Vikings commenced their current three-game road swing, I thought winning two of three in Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago would be a good result to bring the season record to 8-3. Now that they’ve won the first two games, a win in Chicago to reach 9-2 would be a great accomplishment, even though all three teams have losing records. It’s just ever easy to win on the road in the NFL.
The Vikings have a mixed history of success and failure at Soldier Field. I remember well in my second season back in 1977 when Hall of Famer Walter Payton set a then-NFL record with 275 rushing yards in a 10-7 Bears win as our Vikings were coming off a Super Bowl season. I saw Archie Manning get sacked 11 times in 1984 against the Bears’ great defense led by HOFers Dan Hampton and Mike Singletary.
I also have positive memories in Chicago, such as the 1992 game when Jack Del Rio intercepted a Jim Harbaugh pass and returned it 84 yards for a Pick-6 in our 38-10 win, which helped us on the way to a division title.
The Bears are a desperate team entering Sunday’s game. They’ve lost four straight games, including on Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary in Washington and last week when the Packers blocked Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt to end the game. Chicago is 4-6 with a Thanksgiving Day trip to Detroit against the hot Lions as their next game. There were playoff hopes when the Bears started the season 4-2, and now their season and the future of Coach Matt Eberflus are on the brink.
This is another advantageous matchup for Brian Flores and his defense against a rookie QB in first overall pick Caleb Williams, who has had a mostly down season (he ranks 28th in passer rating) in part due to his poor protection, and he often holds the ball too long. The Bears’ defense is solid, so it’s a game the Vikings can win if the defense dominates and forces turnovers. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and the offense protect the ball and do just enough to win. Kicking in Chicago is always a challenge in the latter part of the season with the wind and cold.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over Da Bears:
1. Grab an early lead: the Bears have allowed their opponents to score first in all 10 games this season. If the Vikings can get ahead, it will turn the home crowd into a negative force for the Bears and put more pressure on Williams.
2. Defense confuse and rattle Williams while dominating a shaky O-line: Follow the script that has worked so well against other young QBs this season, including Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love (in the first half of the Week 4 win), Mac Jones, and Will Levis.
Whether it’s blitzes or fake blitzes and sending four, the Vikings’ pass rushers should have a field day against a team that has allowed 41 sacks, second most, while the Vikings’ D ranks third with 35 sacks, led by edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel (eight sacks to rank fifth in the league), Jonathan Greenard and Pat Jones (seven sacks each). Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace (three sacks each) also have had a lot of success blitzing.
The Patriots sacked Williams nine times in their 19-3 upset win over the Bears in Chicago two weeks ago. The Bears were better with only three sacks allowed last week vs. the Pack (but Williams had to scramble a lot). I think the Vikings will take Williams down at least five times.
Here’s a good stat on Brian Flores’ resume: rookie QBs are 1-7 in games against Flores as a DC in New England and Minnesota and Head Coach in Miami.
3. Stop the run and the quick passing game: To help take the pressure off Williams, I expect the Bears to try to establish the run with D’Andre Swift and with Williams on the move (he had 70 yards on the ground against the Packers last week). I don’t think they’ll have success running it against the Vikings, who lead the NFL in rush defense (74 yards per game allowed, and they held Tennessee to 33 yards last week).
I also think Chicago’s new OC, Thomas Brown (who replaced the fired Shane Waldron last week), will follow the Rams’ script and call a lot of wide receiver screens and short passes to an excellent trio of receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze while also getting a good tight end Cole Kmet plenty of targets on short and intermediate throws. This is where Cashman, Pace, and the secondary are so important in fighting off blocks and tackling well.
4. Cashman and Pace are keys to stopping Williams’ scrambles. The Vikings’ defense is so much better with Cashman in the lineup. The Minnesota defense has allowed more than 17 points in only one game he’s started (Green Bay in Week 4), and the team is 7-0 when he’s been in the lineup.
5. Secondary must play better than last week: The defense held the Titans to 13 points and had five sacks and an interception by Harrison Smith to close out the game, but there were several long pass completions, including the 98-yard TD. That can’t happen, especially during playoff time when the Vikings will likely face quality quarterbacks such as Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts. And they face Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins (who has been up and down) in home games after the Bears.
6. Run the ball better than last week: Granted, the Vikings were facing the league’s top D in yards allowed, but the Titans held Aaron Jones to 39 yards on 15 carries (2.6-yard average), and the team as a whole to 82 yards on the ground (2.5 average).
The Bears rank 23rd against the run and ninth against the pass, so it behooves the Vikings to be better runners. If tight end and ace run blocker Josh Oliver can’t play with his wrist/ankle injuries, it will be a tougher task. The Vikings need a decent running game to set up play action.
7. Darnold protect the ball and O-line protect him: The Vikings QB is coming off an excellent game in which he scrambled effectively to evade sacks and buy time for down-field completions. He must play like that moving forward, and the offensive line must protect against a Bears pass rush in the middle of the pack with 25 sacks. Montez Sweat had 12.5 sacks last season and gave the Vikings problems in the Bears’ 12-10 win in Minnesota in Week 12 with 1.5 sacks. His production is down this season, with only 3.5 sacks, but he’s still a threat.
8. Make safe throws to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson: This is probably not the week to throw downfield a lot, although some deep throws are always needed to keep the defense from creeping up in coverage.
Jaylon Johnson is a Pro Bowl corner, and it will be interesting to see if he follows Jefferson and gives the Vikings a chance to go after him if he’s in single coverage on Jefferson, who ranks second in the league in receiving yards (912) but hasn’t reached the end zone in the last four games (he has five TDs this season).
I think Johnson will be on Jefferson a lot and have safety help, but this is a fun matchup to watch. Here’s Johnson’s statement this week on Darnold: “I feel like he hasn’t been consistent. He started out hot, and he’s had a lot of turnovers lately.” Well, that wasn’t the case last week, and we’ll see if Darnold can play error-free on Sunday and make Johnson eat his words.
9. Win the turnover and penalty battles: The Vikings are plus 4 in turnover margin (ninth) and are league leaders in takeaways (21) and interceptions (16). The Bears don’t give it away a lot (only 8, fourth fewest), and they have 17 takeaways (7th) for a plus 9 margin (third best). This will be key, as always, along with the Vikings staying relatively penalty-free as they did against the Titans (only 3 for 35 yards compared to Tennessee’s 13 for 91 yards).
10. Romo has to kick well: The Chicago D has allowed TDs in the red zone at a 40.6% rate, which is a league-low. That means it’s likely Parker Romo will have several field goal attempts in the usually windy Soldier Field, and he needs to convert them. He’s made all five field goal attempts in his two games since replacing the injured Will Reichard, but he did miss an extra point last week.
Ryan Wright must punt well, and the kick coverage units have to be solid against a good kickoff and punt returner in DeAndre Carter (31.3-yard average on kickoff returns and 10.2 on punt returns).
Predicting the outcome: I think this is a repeat of the Tennessee game, with the Vikings’ defense holding the Bears offense under 17 points with five or more sacks of Williams and containing the running of Williams and Swift. The Vikings will continue to have trouble running the ball against the Bears D, but Darnold will be efficient.
The Bears will keep it fairly close and low-scoring, but I pick the Vikings 23-17 (the exact score I predicted last week; I was right: the Vikings scored 23, with the Titans scoring 13).
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 12:
1. 9-1 Detroit may get tested by a 5-6 Indianapolis team that badly needs to win as they try to stay in the AFC playoff race, and young QB Anthony Richardson is coming off a great game in last week’s win over the Jets. But the Lions are hot (eight straight wins), and they’ll beat the Colts behind Jared Goff and his talented supporting cast. So the Vikings need to win to stay one game back.
2. San Francisco is a disappointing 5-5, one game back of the surprising Cardinals. The Niners are tied with the Rams and Seahawks in the tight NFC West. The 49ers have a daunting schedule down the stretch compared to their divisional foes, and I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs.
The 49ers head to Green Bay on Sunday for a game with significant playoff implications for both teams, and there are injury concerns surrounding three of San Fran’s best players — QB Brock Purdy (right shoulder), TE George Kittle (hamstring), and DE Nick Bosa (oblique) who are all Pro Bowlers. The 49ers already have lost two key players for the season — WR Brandon Aiyuk (ACL/MCL) and DT Javon Hargrave (triceps). I think the Packers will beat the 49ers and add to their misery.
3. In other big Week 12 games affecting the NFC West, the Cardinals are at Seattle (I pick the Seahawks coming off their last-minute win over the 49ers), and the Rams host the Eagles on Sunday night. The Eagles have won six straight games, and I think they’ll win this big road game.
It’s the Harbaugh Bowl with the Ravens at the Chargers on Monday night. The last time John and Jim’s teams met was in the Super Bowl 12 years ago when John’s Ravens beat Jim’s 49ers. It will be a close game in L.A., with big brother John emerging victorious again.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl