Aug 19, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell looks on during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
It’s always a strange week for me when my two former teams — the Vikings and Titans — meet, whether it’s in Minneapolis or in Nashville, which is the case on Sunday.
My purple blood runs deeper than any Columbia blue blood in my system based on 23 years spent in the Vikings organization vs. five years with the Titans. I was fortunate to make it to the Super Bowl in my first year with each team, but unfortunately, we came up short in the big game in 1977, when the Raiders beat the Vikings handily, and in 2000, when the Titans ended the game a half-yard short of forcing OT in our loss to the Rams.
This season, it will be a meeting of two teams on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Vikings are 7-2, one game behind the Lions in the NFC North, and should be a first or second Wildcard team if they can’t catch Detroit. The Titans are bottom feeders in the AFC South at 2-7 and have already lost to the other three NFC North teams.
Kevin O’Connell will be seeking better play from quarterback Sam Darnold after his five interceptions over the last two weeks. The Colts and Jaguars games were both wins, mostly due to the defense forcing five turnovers combined.
The play of the two quarterbacks — Darnold and Tennessee’s Will Levis — and who wins the turnover battle are the main keys, but plenty of other factors will determine whether the Vikings win their third straight game (sweeping the AFC South in the process) and improve to 8-2.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Titans:
1. Darnold has to be more careful and accurate with his throws and follow the old cliché — take what the defense gives you. I think it’s great to target Justin Jefferson often, even if he’s doubled, but Darnold has to be more accurate than on his last two interceptions against the Jags, when he threw behind and short of Jefferson.
Jefferson and Jordan Addison also benefit from the Titans’ top corner, L’Jarius Sneed, missing his fifth straight game due to a quad injury (he did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday). Starting nickel corner Roger McCreary is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play.
If the Titans and future opponents copy Jacksonville’s game plan on D with shell coverage and two high safeties 90% of the time, then Darnold has to be ready to throw short and intermediate passes to the tight ends and check downs to the running backs.
It was positive that Darnold completed 12 passes to the tight ends last week (eight to T.J. Hockenson and four to Josh Oliver) and 3 passes to the backs. But Jefferson and Addison have to be involved, even if on wide receiver screens and quick slants.
The Vikings need to better protect Darnold, who has been sacked 26 times, the sixth-most in the league. The Titans have only 18 sacks (ranked 27th), but they have several strong pass rushers, including edge players Harold Landry (5 sacks) and Arden Key (four sacks but battling a back injury), along with DT Jeffery Simmons inside (three sacks).
It will be another challenging game for Brian O’Neill (who is having an excellent season) and Cam Robinson, who knows the Titans well from his many years playing for Jacksonville in the same division.
2. Run the ball: Along with completing short and intermediate passes, another great way to get defenses out of shell coverage is to run it effectively. The Vikings did so in Jacksonville even though the Jads didn’t adjust their shell coverage, with 169 rushing yards, including 88 by Aaron Jones, 38 from Cam Akers, 18 from Ty Chandler, and 28 yards on seven scrambles by Darnold.
The Chargers rushed for 145 yards in their 27-17 win over the Titans last week, with Justin Herbert throwing only 18 passes (completing 14 for 164 yards, one TD, and no interceptions). I expect O’Connell to follow that blueprint in an attempt to avoid Darnold turnovers on offense, control time of possession (which was so dominant last week for the Vikings — 42 minutes to 18), and let his defense dominate Levis and the Titans’ 27th-ranked offense.
3. Double teams on Simmons: The Vikings’ interior O-line has faced many elite defensive tackles this season, and the two-time Pro Bowler Simmons is another one. He’s Tennessee’s best defensive player, who O’Connell talked about in his media session this week. Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, and Blake Brandel will have an exceedingly difficult time blocking him one-on-one on run or pass plays, so double teams will be needed.
4. Win the turnover battle: This is a mismatch going in with the Vikings plus 4 in turnover margin (ninth best) and the Titans minus 11 (second worst). The Vikings lead the league with 20 takeaways and 15 interceptions. The Titans have 17 giveaways (third most), 11 interceptions, and only six takeaways (third fewest).
The turnover margin has killed the Titans this season. That’s obvious when the Tennessee defense is No. 1 in fewest yards allowed but 29th in scoring defense, as opposing offenses have often benefited from short fields caused by turnovers.
5. Stop the run and set up a big day for the Vikings pass rushers: The Titans made a big mistake letting NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry leave in free agency, but ex-Cowboy Tony Pollard is a solid back (666 rushing yards), and Tyjae Spears is a good No. 2. The Titans’ No. 10 running game against the Vikings’ No. 2 run defense is a huge matchup in this game, as Titans Coach Brian Callahan will try to establish the run to take pressure off Levis.
Tennessee has given up 28 sacks (eighth most), and the Chargers sacked Levis seven times last week. Right tackle has been a trouble spot where Leroy Watson (who has missed practice this week with a back injury) and John Ojukwa rotated last week. So it sets up well for Andrew Van Ginkel (six sacks) rushing from that side. And Titans left tackle JC Latham is a rookie first-rounder who gave up a couple of sacks against the Chargers, so Jonathan Greenard—the team leader with seven sacks and among the league leaders in pressures—could have a big game.
The Vikings’ other D-linemen, edge players, and blitzers, such as Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace, and Josh Metellus, along with Harrison Phillips inside, should also be able to sack Levis.
Dallas Turner had an excellent game last week with six pressures in his 24 snaps. Perhaps he’s ready to play a bigger role in the second half of the season and make another big impact in Sunday’s game.
This is another week for DC Brian Flores to rattle a young quarterback in the second-year man Levis with defensive unpredictability, as he did last week to Mac Jones and previously this season to the likes of Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love.
6. John Parker Romo stay hot, and special teams play well: Romo is coming off his 4 for 4 field goal day. He also kicked off well with four of five deep in the end zone. Punter Ryan Wright and the Vikings’ coverage units have been solid most of the season, and that needs to continue, along with getting more from Brandon Powell on punt returns.
7. Be better penalty-wise: there were four more pre-snap penalties last week (after none vs. Indy), which has been a problem this season and must be fixed down the stretch and in any postseason games.
Predicting the outcome: I think O’Connell will play conservatively this week with his play calls on offense. Darnold will play better in Tennessee with help from a decent rushing attack and a defense that will give him a couple of short fields via turnovers. Jefferson will take advantage of a banged-up secondary with several big plays, and Hockenson and Oliver will be effective on short and intermediate routes.
Brian Flores will confuse Levis, and the Vikings will sack him five times, forcing a strip sack by Greenard or Van Ginkel and a couple of interceptions.
The Titans will keep it fairly close and low-scoring, but I pick the Vikings 23-17. They improve to 8-2 and stay one game back of the Lions, who should crush Jacksonville in Detroit.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 11:
1. The Lions and Jared Goff had their wake-up call in Houston last week, and they’ll trounce the Jags, who will start Jones again in Trevor Lawrence’s absence.
The Bears either can’t protect Caleb Williams, or when they do, he holds the ball too long (thus, nine sacks by the Patriots in a dismal loss for Chicago last week). Shane Waldron was fired as OC, and Thomas Brown took over. It won’t help against the 6-3 Packers coming off their bye, but they’re looking for Jordan Love to stop throwing picks (10 this season, tied for the league lead with Darnold and Geno Smith). The Packers will beat the Bears by 10.
2. Baltimore is at Pittsburgh, with first place in the AFC North on the line. It’s a shame this is a noon start, as it’s worthy of prime time (much more than Houston at Dallas on Monday night). I’ll take the Ravens in a close game with Lamar Jackson outplaying Rusell Wilson.
3. The other big game this weekend is unbeaten Kansas City at 8-2 Buffalo in a matchup of the top two teams in the AFC. The Chiefs are the Bills’ nemesis team, having knocked them out of the playoffs three of the last four years. Buffalo has won five straight, and the Chiefs have had several narrow escapes, including their win on a walk-off blocked field goal against Denver last week. I think it’s a bigger game for Buffalo to prove they can beat the Chiefs, and I think they will do that in the doubleheader game on Sunday.
4. In other interesting Week 11 games, I think the 5-4 49ers will win at home over the Seahawks to tie the idle Cardinals for first place in the NFC West; 5-5 Denver’s defense will lead the way in knocking off Kirk Cousins and the 6-4 Falcons, and the 6-3 Chargers with the league’s top scoring defense will beat Joe Burrow and the 4-6 Bengals in a matchup of $50 million-plus per year QBs in Burrow and Justin Herbert who are trying to lead their teams to AFC wildcard berths.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl