Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) shown on the field prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports.
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 15 win over the Chicago Bears. All playoff math for this version is provided by DVOA.
The Vikings have clinched a playoff spot that cannot be removed, no matter what.
As a very worst-case scenario, Minnesota would bounce into the postseason as the No. 7 seed, assuming it lost its next three games and the Washington Commanders won out.
In this scenario, Minnesota would catch the Lions from behind for the NFC North crown, but the Philadelphia Eagles would finish the season with the same record (or better) as Minnesota and take the No. 1 seed.
Oddsmakers basically don’t believe the Vikings can catch up to the Lions, resulting in the No. 2 seed.
This is the Holy Grail plan.
Enter Week 18 with the same record as the Lions. Beat the Lions. Earn homefield advantage throughout.
If one assumes Minnesota can win its remaining three games, the purple team will earn homefield advantage throughout the postseason tournament. It’s right there in front of them, with “control your own destiny” stakes.
Here, Minnesota would likely lose this weekend at Seattle and again at home versus the Green Bay Packers.
The cheese team would leapfrog Minnesota, seizing the No. 5 seed and leaving the Vikings to battle the Washington Commanders for sixth place in the conference.
Minnesota has a two-game cushion on the Packers through 15 weeks, and if that lead remains, the fifth-seeded Vikings are coming to a playoff bracket near you.
This is the most logical landing spot for Kevin O’Connell’s team if one assumes Minnesota will lose just one or two more games from here on out while Green Bay does not run the table.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.