Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars helmets on the sidelines against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images.
It probably won’t be Trevor Lawrence who the Minnesota Vikings face this weekend.
All signs suddenly point to Jacksonville Jaguars QB2 Mac Jones earning the nod for Week 10 — not Lawrence. The once-promising quarterback of the future for Jacksonville is battling a shoulder injury.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport tweeted Thursday, just three days before Jaguars-Vikings: “As Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) continues to get treatment and weigh options for the future, sources say he’s considered unlikely to play Sunday vs the Vikings. Lawrence was limited in practice yesterday & coach Doug Pederson was noncommittal about his status.”
Conflicting reports accompanied the Lawrence revelation, too, as former NFL head coach Jay Gruden chimed in via social media that Lawrence would need shoulder surgery. “Sources say surgery for Trevor. Damn. Get well man! Hope sources are wrong,” Gruden tweeted.
Comically, the same Rapoport immediately clapped back at the notion of surgery, slapping down the Gruden tweet, “No surgery scheduled, Jay. There are several options immediate and down the road. That’s one of them. He’s considered day-to-day with a left shoulder. But as he considers these options, Trevor Lawrence will likely not play Sunday. Mac Jones is the backup,” Rapoport added.
Lawrence ranks 20th of 33 qualifying quarterbacks through Week 9, per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. Once considered the Jaguars’ primary savior, Lawrence has fallen on harsh times amid the last two seasons, with some even starting to nibble at “bust” conversations for the underperforming signal-caller.
In Jones, well, the Vikings would face another former 1st-Rounder, though nobody classified him as a can’t-miss prospect like Lawrence. Minnesota actually lined up against Jones in a Thanksgiving primetime game in 2022 when he shredded the Vikings’ defense, then led by coordinator Ed Donatell, while Minnesota held on for a win, mostly due to a Kene Nwangwu kick return touchdown.
With Lawrence in the lineup, Jacksonville ranked 17th on offense per EPA/Play, a decent ranking but nothing to write home about. Its defense, on the other hand, is horrendous by the numbers, ranking dead last per the same EPA/Play metric.
On Thursday morning, before the Lawrence injury declaration, the Vikings were favored to prevail Sunday by four points. The point spread immediately shifted to 6.5 points after the Rapoport tweet.
Minnesota has won five straight games against Jacksonville, a win streak spanning 23 years.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.