Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings fans react during the game against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
Indeed, the Minnesota Vikings will be without left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the rest of 2024, and indeed, Sam Darnold’s Week 1-3 superstardom has faded.
But neither of those items are the Vikings’ main problem entering November.
It’s the pass rush — as of late.
Minnesota’s defense barnstormed the NFL out of the gate, ranking first per EPA/Play and DVOA. For the most part, that’s why the Vikings tabulated the NFL’s best record with relative ease, leading the sport in point differential, too, through five games.
Then, however, the defense descended to the depths of hell. These are the numbers:
Vikings Defense,
NFL Ranking,
per EPA/Play:
Week 1-5: 1st
Week 6-8: 28th
The problem? The pass rush. A lack of pressure on Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) and Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) has caused the passing defense to plunge — from first to worst in a hurry.
Vikings Defense,
NFL Ranking,
per DEF Passing EPA/Play:
First 5 Games: 1st
Last 2 Games: 32nd
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert noted the Vikings’ pass rush as the biggest hole in the gameplan during Minnesota’s loss at Los Angeles. “The Vikings couldn’t find a way to get to Rams QB Matthew Stafford. They pressured him on only three of his 34 dropbacks; that 9% pressure rate was their lowest in a game since 2020,” he wrote.
“And even then, Stafford completed a pass against all three of those pressures, including a 7-yard touchdown pass to WR Cooper Kupp after eluding DT Harrison Phillips and LB Jonathan Greenard. The pass rush had been key to the Vikings’ hot start this season, and before Thursday they had posted at least a 24.6% pressure rate in every game.”
It’s also worth noting that the Rams’ offensive line was not known for dominance, making the pass-rushing woes in Week 8 more suspicious and confounding. Struggling against the Lions’ offensive trenches made sense — Detroit owns the NFL’s top OL. Los Angeles does not.
Thankfully for the Vikings sake, the following four quarterbacks on the agenda are either inexperienced, poor, or mediocre: Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars), Will Levis or Mason Rudolph (Tennessee Titans), and Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears).
None quite have the pocket efficiency of Goff or Stafford, and it will sure help if defensive coordinator Brian Flores snaps his group’s pass-rushing follies into shape.
Otherwise, Minnesota would be on the brink of a 2016-style collapse.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.