Sep 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Chargers safety Alohi Gilman (32) is tackled after his fumble recovery by Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
The Minnesota Vikings have some milestones ahead: four days before training camp, 24 days until the preseason, and 53 separate the team between now and Week 1 at the New York Giants.
The purple team is slated to win about seven games in 2024, not a playoff or Super Bowl contender by oddsmakers’ estimations.
And there are reasons for the underwhelming forecast. Ranked in ascending order, these are five problems facing the Vikings in 2024 (No. 1 = top problem).
Tight end T.J. Hockenson probably won’t be ready to start the regular season after a December ACL tear courtesy of Hockenson’s former team, the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, Vikings fans await more details on Jordan Addison’s arrest last weekend, and if the worst materializes, he could be suspended in September.
If both come to fruition, Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy would toss the rock to Justin Jefferson, Brandon Powell, and Robert Tonyan — not Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, as has been forecasted for a few months.
Not ideal.
Minnesota ranked near the bottom of the NFL per offensive giveaways in 2023, meaning it handed opponents the pigskin too often via fumbles and interceptions.
Then, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed the aforementioned Darnold in March. His primary weakness? Turnovers. That’s right — the Vikings hope to rectify a turnover plague with a turnover-happy quarterback.
Remember this stat.
It’s five 2023 playoff teams in the first seven games, plus Aaron Rodgers’ team. That’s Minnesota’s assignment out of the gate for the 2024 Vikings. Yikes.
Week 1 — at New York Giants
Week 2 — vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 — vs. Houston Texans
Week 4 — at Green Bay Packers
Week 5 — vs. New York Jets (London)
Week 6 — Bye
Week 7 — vs. Detroit Lions
Week 8 — at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
This facet of the schedule will not be easy, but thankfully, the back half of the schedule lightens up, at least on paper. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Minnesota has the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule on the whole, which is a raw deal for a team that finished in third place last year inside its division. It seems like a third-place finish for the 2023 squad afforded no schedule-strength justice.
Minnesota had a plethora of opportunities to upgrade the spot next to Harrison Phillips, including free agents like Christian Wilkins, Arik Armstead, D.J. Reader, Grover Stewart, Leonard Williams, Sheldon Rankins, and Maurice Hurst, among others. It reportedly made a push for Wilkins, but he latched onto the Las Vegas Raiders’ roster for megabucks.
After that, the draft shook out, and the Vikings didn’t find a high-profile DT there, either. Adofo-Mensah wound up with “Prospect X” late-rounder Levi Drake Rodriguez. The last best hope this offseason at defensive tackle is exploring a trade for Washington Commander DT Jonathan Allen, for example.
Otherwise, this is the group:
After Phillips, the mixture isn’t becoming of a playoff contender, which Minnesota may not be anyway in 2024.
It’s wonderful that Minnesota took the plunge for a rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy and the bridge passer, Darnold. But at least for a year, it’ll be lucky if either man or both combined produce Kirk Cousins’ usual 4,000 passing yards and 30+ touchdowns.
Most are enthusiastic about it, but launching life without Cousins is uncharted territory — that will probably result in a plunge in passing yards and touchdowns at the league’s most important position.
In fact, considering Brian Flores’ defensive improvement in Miami from 2019 to 2020 — 32nd in the NFL to 7th per EPA/Play in one year — the Vikings might reinvent themselves into a defense-first organization for an undetermined period.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.