Sep 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith (22) before the game against the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
The Minnesota Vikings are now the eighth-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl in February, with +1700 odds.
When the season began 22 days ago, Minnesota had a +8000 moneyline to win its first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.
The team has started white hot out of the gate, defeating the New York Giants by 22, the San Francisco 49ers by six, the Houston Texans by 27, and surviving a late advance from the Green Bay Packers on Sunday while winning by two.
The perk of a 4-0 start? Respect around the league.
Quarterback Sam Darnold has totally revived his career through four games in Minnesota, leading the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and ranking third leaguewide per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. He’s played masterfully, keeping the Vikings in front of the scoreboard for all but three minutes of the 2024 season.
Meanwhile, Brian Flrores’ defense is cooking, somehow allowing gobs of yards, stiffening when it matters, forcing turnovers, and emulating a “bend but don’t break defense” — that never feels like a “bend but don’t break defense.” Minnesota ranks 23rd in yards allowed to opposing teams but still has the NFL’s second-best defense per EPA/Play.
Moreover, opposing offensive coordinators throw the ball 71% of the time, by far the most in the league. They run 29% of the time, which ranks as the fewest.
Overall, this is the NFL’s current pecking order per Super Bowl odds:
The next test — or question from fans — is sustainability. In 2016, Minnesota started the season like gangbusters, sprinting to a 5-0 record before utterly collapsing after the team’s bye. It finished 8-8 following the unblemished 5-0 start and missed the postseason.
Twenty-one years ago, the Vikings started the season 6-0, with visions of Super Bowl grandeur, but missed the playoffs thanks to a godforsaken finish at the Arizona Cardinals. Only because it’s happened twice in the last two decades are Vikings fans a little hesitant to fully invest in the Super Bowl dream.
Still, this team has very few players from 2016 and none from 2003. Oddsmakers are suddenly buying into Minnesota, a remarkable transition after they picked the purple team to win 6.5 games before the season began.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.