Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) escapes from Green Bay Packers defensive end Kingsley Enagbare (55) on Sunday, September 29, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Vikings won the game, 31-29. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
The Minnesota Vikings may or may not keep QB1 Sam Darnold in 2025 and beyond, a discussion that will grow white-hot in January, February, and March.
Minnesota employs rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, drafted with the 10th overall pick six months ago but since shelved for the season with a meniscus tear.
And according to Spotrac, Darnold will ultimately land with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025, a team currently showcasing a one-two combo at quarterback of Garnder Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Sizing up landing spots for free agents-to-be in 2025, managing editor of Sportrac Mike Ginnitti declared about Darnold’s next employer: “Four years, $160 million to the Las Vegas Raiders. It’s cap-adjusted Baker Mayfield.”
Minnesota signed Darnold for one year and $10 million in March, on deck for “patchover quarterback” duty with a passer to be named later, which turned out to be McCarthy.
Then, the 2024 regular season arrived, and the Vikings have the league’s best record as of October 6th, 5-0 out of the gate and possessing honest-to-goodness Super Bowl odds. Some fans, in fact, are already claiming they’d rather retain Darnold for 2025 while McCarthy simply watches and learns, a la the Green Bay Packers’ system from the last two decades.
Not long ago, Darnold was linked to the Tennessee Titans in the way-too-early 2025 free-agent sweepstakes. “Maybe Will Levis proves he deserves another shot next season. Maybe he doesn’t. Either way, the Titans should be prepared to at least add a veteran who could compete for the job. Sam Darnold is on pace to become the latest signal-caller to enjoy a post-hype breakout as a serviceable starter,” BR’s collective staff wrote in September.
Darnold ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes exiting Week 5 and 10th per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added, notably outpacing signal-callers like Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott.
“If the Vikings want to transition to J.J. McCarthy next season, then Darnold could be a surprisingly in-demand free agent,” BR also wrote about the concept of Darnold to Tennessee.
For Darnold and the Raiders, a long-term deal is certainly realistic. Las Vegas parted ways with Derek Carr a couple of years ago and has not used high-round draft capital on a replacement, instead settling on a sandwich of Minshew and 7th-Round selection from 2023, Aidan O’Connell. Should the Raiders finish with a Top 15 pick or so in the 2025 NFL Draft, they may explore the rookie candidacies of quarterbacks like Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, or Quinn Ewers, to name a few.
When Darnold free-agent chats emerge in February, the element of money will be vital, as well. McCarthy lives on the Vikings’ budget with a rookie contract, no matter what. Darnold’s current 37-touchdown pace will earn the veteran passer at least $40 million somewhere, almost as a starting price for negotiations. While Vikings fans may want Darnold back as a 2025 insurance policy, he won’t be gettable for his 2024 price of $10 million.
Darnold turned 27 in June.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.