Dec 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Theo Jackson (26, second from right) leads a dance with cornerback Shaquill Griffin (1), safety Camryn Bynum (24), safety Josh Metellus (44), defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (97) and cornerback Dwight McGlothern (29) following his interception against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
The No. 1 question from Minnesota Vikings fans to VikingsTerritory writers right now is this: Do the Vikings have to beat the Green Bay Packers to continue the trek toward homefield advantage — or can they afford a loss in Week 17 and hope to keep the dream alive?
The answer is mostly yes — Minnesota must defeat Green Bay to keep homefield advantage hopes alive. Otherwise, the purple team will need help.
The Vikings have the cliche “control your own fate” narrative in play and would surrender it with a loss to the Packers.
Here’s the skinny.
The Vikings control everything at the moment — with no exceptions.
If they beat the Packers in Week 17 and do the same at Detroit on the final day of the regular season, every eligible NFC playoff game will transpire at U.S. Bank Stadium.
This scenario cannot be erased by anything other than a Vikings loss.
Win + and in + homefield throughout. Plain as day.
Folks are asking the “what if they lose to the Packers” question because it’s a reasonable fear. It would be on brand for the Vikings-Packers rivalry to play spoiler.
If Minnesota loses at home to Green Bay, it will require a Lions loss on Monday Night Football — next Monday, December 30th — to win the NFC.
Should the 49ers help the Vikings out, the Week 18 contest at Detroit would determine the winner of the NFC North, who probably plays the Washington Commanders in the Wildcard Round, and of course, a home game to start the postseason (likely against the Commanders).
But losing to the Packers while asking the 49ers to topple the Lions would ruin homefield-throughout-the-playoffs aspirations because of the Eagles.
If:
Then:
The Eagles must lose one of these two contests for the Vikings to grab the No. 1 seed with a Week 18 win at Detroit:
And this can be perceived as an Eagles-Cowboys stipulation, as the Giants are in utter disarray.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.