Nov 17, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball warms up before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images.
The Minnesota Vikings have a 95.0% chance of reaching the postseason, according to oddsmakers, an impressive feat for a team scheduled to win six or seven games this season by the same source.
The club owns an 8-2 record and tentatively eyes a Wildcard spot in the playoff tournament.
But on the whole, organizations like ESPN are skeptical of the purple team, mainly because Minnesota hasn’t utterly dominated an opponent since the first half of a Week 4 game at Lambeau Field. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell sized up playoff-contending teams after Week 11 and was not bullish on the Vikings.
“From the 1,000-yard view, the Vikings look great. They’re 8-2, and one of those two losses is a two-point defeat to the Lions that required a game-winning field goal with 19 seconds left. They have the league’s fifth-best point differential and ranked fourth in DVOA heading into their trip to Nashville. Brian Flores’ defense has been excellent,” he wrote.
“The Vikings are one of the league’s best teams. Does it really feel that way watching them on a week-to-week basis? I’m not so sure.”
Minnesota’s defense ranks tops in the NFL through 11 weeks per EPA/Play and DVOA. The offense ranks around 13th.
Barnwell explained his purple hesitance: “Perhaps it’s latent skepticism toward Darnold, whose results have gotten worse as the season has progressed. The Vikings turned the ball over three times in back-to-back wins over the Colts and Jaguars, and while he didn’t throw an interception in the Tennessee game, the Vikings did lose a fumble on a botched pitch to Aaron Jones.”
The “easy” segment of Minnesota’s schedule is over, and it did not thoroughly crush the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, or Tennessee Titans. Some believe a Super Bowl-caliber team should spank such franchises — as the Detroit Lions habitually do — but the Vikings did not.
Barnwell concluded, “The Vikings will almost surely need to beat the Lions in their Week 18 rematch if O’Connell & Co. want to have any hope of winning the division, let alone landing the top seed in the NFC. With a 3-2 record in the conference so far, the Vikings also aren’t in great tiebreaker shape relative to their competition, given that the Lions are 6-1 and the Eagles are 5-2.”
“With two games against the Bears and matchups against the Lions and Packers still to come, they probably need to sweep their NFC North games to have a shot at the top seed.”
Most don’t expect Minnesota to catch Detroit for the NFC North crown, though the Week 18 showdown at Ford Field could be fascinating if the teams stay neck and neck. And on skepticism regarding the 8-2 record, well, most fans didn’t expect the Vikings to be this good in the first place, affording Minnesota a bit of house-money grace.
The Vikings next take on the Bears in Chicago are early 3.5-points favorites.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.