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Adam New’s NFC North Predictions

By Adam New

The NFC North looks set to be a fiercely competitive division in 2024: the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, who should be harboring Super Bowl ambitions; the Chicago Bears, with their number one pick rookie quarterback and a roster that looks as strong as it has been for a while, and the Minnesota Vikings, who will be looking to spring a surprise and believe in themselves while outside forces may not.

Adam New’s NFC North Predictions

Last season, the four teams of the NFC North combined for 38 wins — including playoffs — a number bettered only by the powerful AFC North (44). The division should be strong again. I used a predictor to determine the outcome of every regular-season game to make my final predictions for the division. I had the teams combining for 37 wins — one less than last season — and a new division champion.

1st Place – Green Bay Packers

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Win-Loss Record: 11-6

Key Additions:  RB Josh Jacobs, S Xavier McKinney, G Jordan Morgan, S Javon Bullard.

The Packers have been the dominant force in the division recently, being crowned champions in eight of the last 13 seasons. Failing to win the division this year would see them go without a division title over three years for the first time since 2010 – the year they last won the Super Bowl. Green Bay was three games back from Detroit last season, but I expect things to be much closer this season. It was a difficult start to life with Jordan Love as the new quarterback, as the Packers lost six of their first nine games. 

As Love seemed to find his feet, Green Bay won six of the last eight games and a playoff game. If Love can maintain the form of last season’s second half, the Packers have the strength across the rest of the roster to be a real force this season. They hope that Josh Jacobs’ signing will boost their run game. The Packers’ success will be built on their strong defense and ability to top the division. It will be close; I have the Packers winning two more games than last year and edging it on the division record.

2nd Place – Detroit Lions

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

Win-Loss Record: 11-6

Key Additions: NT DJ Reader, DE Marcus Davenport, CB Amik Robertson, G Kevin Zeitler, CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

The Lions have looked to strengthen their defense in two areas to retain their division title. The defensive line has the additions of DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport, and the cornerback has the additions of Amik Robertson, first-round rookie Terrion Arnold, and second-round rookie Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The expectation is for the Lions to be strong again, but I believe they will struggle to match last year’s success and win one less game than last season.

I expect them to make the playoffs, where they will be a problem for whichever team they face. A big thing to watch this season will be the development of the two rookie corners. If they continue in the same vein as Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, and Brian Branch, then the Lions’ defense will have a nucleus of young talent to build a strong future.

3rd Place – Chicago Bears

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports.

Win-Loss Record: 9-8

Key Additions: QB Caleb Williams, WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze, RB D’Andre Swift, S Kevin Byard.

All eyes are on Caleb Williams, the rookie QB that so much is expected of. The Bears have done a good job surrounding him with talent, adding veteran Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze to DJ Moore to make an exciting trio of WRs. I have some concerns over the offensive line, and while Williams certainly can escape the pocket and make magic happen, you don’t want him to be forced into that consistently.

The Bears will win two more games than last season and move up a spot in the division. That’s not enough for the playoffs this year, but it would be a promising start to life under Williams and something for Chicago and their new quarterback to build upon. Williams is the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I fancy that to be a pretty safe bet.

4th Place – Minnesota Vikings

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Win-Loss Record: 7-10

Key Additions: QB Sam Darnold, QB JJ McCarthy, OLB Jonathan Greenard, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, OLB Dallas Turner, LB Blake Cashman, CB Stephen Gilmore, RB Aaron Jones.

I have the Vikings finishing with the same record as last season, which might not be the unmistakable sign of progression some would hope for. Minnesota was dealt a huge blow by losing their rookie quarterback for the season after the first preseason game. Any hopes of JJ McCarthy being introduced at some point this season have been dashed, which leaves the Vikings’ hopes for the season on the shoulders of Sam Darnold.

Expect the Vikings to be competitive in every game they play this year, but it’s hard for me to trust Darnold to lead them to enough wins to make them a playoff team. I do believe Kevin O’Connell can unlock the best we’ve seen from Darnold. Along with the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ offense will be dangerous, but my question mark is trusting Darnold to deliver in the big moments.

Brian Flores has plenty of new talent at his disposal and will hope he can avoid the severe drop-off in play the defense saw last season this time. The mix of a much improved Darnold and a more consistent defense could see the Vikings better my seven-win prediction, but I need to see it to believe it.


Adam New

Proud UK Viking. Family Man. Enjoy writing about my team. Away from football an advocate for autism acceptance.

Tags: Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers minnesota vikings NFC North