Aug 19, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; The line of scrimmage between the Minnesota Vikings and the Tennessee Titans during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The Minnesota Vikings will take on the Titans in Tennessee on Sunday, already winning back-to-back games against the Titans’ rivals, the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.
And when the ball snaps this weekend, the Vikings will experience a rather weird tendency of the Titans — a break-but-don’t-bend defense. Yes, one of those. You might want to re-read that.
Here’s the deal.
It’s the damnedest thing.
Tennessee ranks at the top of the NFL per yards allowed. No team surrenders fewer yards than Brian Callahan’s group. Not one. The other teams sharing space with the Titans include the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, and Kansas City Chiefs — also known as teams verifiably heading to the postseason in January with few debates.
Yet, the Titans are 2-7. They’re nearing mathematical elimination from the playoffs. The team with the fewest yards allowed — some people would call that the league’s “best defense” by the numbers — isn’t even remotely flirting with a winning record.
Allowing just 273 yards per game has gained Tennessee nothing.
Why? Well, Callahan’s group still allows too many points.
The Titans hand opponents 26.7 points per contest, ranking 29th in the NFL, just ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, and Carolina Panthers. Unlike the example above with the Eagles, Texans, and Chiefs, those clubs are not heading to the postseason tournament.
Tennessee has this very bizarre dichotomy where it allows an unusually advantageous amount of yardage to opponents … but then ranks at a bottom-four clip per points surrendered.
Make it make sense, right?
Two items create this strange variance.
Foremost, the Titans turn the ball over on offense way too frequently. They gift-wrap their opponents the rock 1.9 times per game, which ranks 30th in the business. Third-worst. When the defense cooks — not allowing many yards — Will Levis and friends get rid of the ball on offense. Often clumsily.
Then, the redzone defense is suspect. Opponents score touchdowns 64% of the time when they enter the Titans’ redzone. Again, it’s the ultimate break-but-don’t-bend operation.
That slogan — the inverse — is famous (or infamous) for “bend-but-don’t-break,” but Tennessee does it the other way around.
Overall, the Titans rank 15th leaguewide per EPA/Play per defensive efficiency, which might explain or accommodate the yards and points madness.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.