Sep 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (26) in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
In Minnesota’s ideal world, Justin Jefferson finishes his career with the Vikings.
Only 25, Jefferson has proven to be a magnificent talent, someone who is more important than ever after Kirk Cousins departed. Something that’s notable, though, is that Minnesota will have some options as his deal progresses. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, a shrewd GM, built in an escape hatch for the final pair of seasons.
Before too long, Justin Jefferson is going to be commanding cap hits that are nearly on par with top quarterbacks.
Before getting there, though, things will be pretty modest. The upcoming season features #18 commanding less than $10 million from the salary cap pie, an encouraging reality given that there’s so much dead money. More specifically, Jefferson will only carry a $8,612,600 into the year.
Before too long, though, things start jumping.
Consider how the deal is structured. The initial seasons involve relatively modest cap hits and (potentially) huge dead money charges for a cut. As things progress, the ratios flip. The cap charges get larger but the potential cap savings grow larger if a cut ever needed to occur.
Keep in mind that part of what’s keeping the cost down is a $6 million dead money charge in 2029 even though #18 isn’t under contract for that season. Void year shenanigans, as per tradition with Mr. Adofo-Mensah.
The first couple seasons are modest for cap hits. A touch beyond $8.6 million and roughly $15.2 million for Jefferson in those years is tremendous. The team will not be cutting him in either of these two seasons, but if they did the cap hit for Jefferson would swell to taking up more than $80 million.
Where things really start to change is in 2026.
At that point, Jefferson is making QB money, at least in terms of his portion of the cap. He comes in a touch under $39 million in that season before seeing consecutive years beyond $40 million.
Major money, but keep in mind that Jefferson is walking in lockstep with J.J. McCarthy. As long as the young passer can provide QB1 play while on his rookie deal, then the Vikings will be just fine. Everything balances out since the QB would be providing tremendous value.
Of course, the possibility exists that a cut could occur after three or four seasons, as unlikely as that seems right about now. Five years is an eternity in the NFL and a lot can happen within that time. If Randy Moss can leave the Vikings, then Justin Jefferson can leave the Vikings.
The current vantage point, though, suggests that letting those years of huge cap hits hit the books is more likely. Plus, the deal is likely to see some adjustments. Quite possibly, Minnesota will keep kicking the can down the road, extending Jefferson yet again to avoid seeing those monstrous cap hits officially become a reality.
Jefferson is a team captain and in his mid 20s. He has never been held to less than 1,000 yards since entering the NFL.
Editor’s Note: Information from Over the Cap helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.