Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The Minnesota Vikings’ recent trade with the Houston Texans fell out of the sky four days ago, handing the purple team more 1st-Round ammunition in April’s draft than any quarterback-needy team.
Most expect general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s trade to be accompanied by a second trade, though no one is too sure if that will happen before the draft or during. Stay tuned.
For starters, this was the deal:
Vikings Receive:
No. 23
No. 232
Texans Receive:
No. 42
No. 188
2025 2nd-Round pick
Most trade calculators tabulated the advantage in favor of Houston, mainly because the numbers say two 2nd-Rounders are better than one 1st-Rounder. Put bluntly, however, trade calculators don’t account for a franchise seeking an organically drafted quarterback for the first time in about 50 years.
Thankfully, NFL data analyst Michael Lopez used the X app a few days ago to summarize the trade’s outcome perfectly. He tweeted Saturday, “Every draft value chart paints the HOU/MIN trade as yielding excess value for HOU. If you look at the trade as a ‘Probability of drafting a stud,’ it’s actually a win for MIN.”
Here’s a visual of the tweet:
The easy way to think of this? It’s a win-win. Both clubs should consider themselves victors. The Texans will draft and implement two impact players instead of one. They’ve got the QB1 position all figured out, thanks to C.J. Stroud’s rapid emergence to stardom as a rookie. Hell, Stroud and the Texans even reached the AFC’s Divisional Round last season, Stroud’s first in charge. Everything is trending up in Houston, and with main foundational roster pieces set, it can afford to build out the roster with multiple 2nd-Round picks.
Conversely, Minnesota is seeking its version of Stroud, and to get there, it needed more trade ammunition. One basically operates under the pretense that two 1st-Rounders are better than one — more attractive bait to a team like the Washington Commanders or New England Patriots, clubs that could be willing to trade down from the No. 2 or No. 3 spots and perhaps do business with the Vikings.
It’s easier for Adofo-Mensah to call the Commanders or Patriots GM and say, “Hey, I’ve got two 1st-Rounders this year just for you,” than “We’ll just pay you later.”
Therefore, if Friday’s trade winner is adjudicated by sheer assets, yes, Houston might’ve got the more profitable end of the stick. However, if the Vikings wanted a realistic shot at drafting Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy — and the goal is to obtain a franchise quarterback — the trade swung in the Vikings’ favor.
Like the Stefon Diggs trade four years ago, both participating teams may end up happy.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.