Nov 10, 2024; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) motions for a first down against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the third quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images.
In early September, oddsmakers assessed the 2024 Minnesota Vikings and said, “Yeah, about 6.5 wins feels right.”
Through 10 games — in real life — Minnesota has won eight, shattering the Vegas projection in early November.
Accordingly, the world has taken notice of the Vikings, especially after the franchise rebounded from a two-game, post-bye losing skid a few weeks ago. In fact, NFL.com perceives Minnesota as a Top 5 squad, ranking the purple team at No. 5 in its latest batch of Power Rankings.
“Sam Darnold was charged with a fumble after his errant pitch on the Vikings’ third play from scrimmage, and there was a sense of here we go again,” NFL.com’s Eric Edholm wrote. “But the win over the Titans ended up being a big bounceback game for the QB, who played pretty darned well for three quarters, until the offense went into a bit of a shell late. Darnold also took a costly fourth-quarter sack that might have been more impactful against a better opponent. Still, the early fumble was his only turnover of the game.”
Minnesota’s defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA and EPA/Play through 11 weeks, while the offense checks in near the middle of the pack.
Edholm added, “The Vikings’ defense did its job by sacking Will Levis five times and limiting the Titans’ scoring chances, even with a few coverage busts. Tennessee ran 55 offensive plays; four of them accounted for 182 yards, and the remaining 51 plays netted just 112 yards. It wasn’t artwork, but the Vikings won by double digits on the road. Now the meat of their schedule lies ahead. The playoffs are well within reach, but they’ll be tested down the stretch.”
SI.com’s Conor Orr ranked the Vikings a bit more modestly at No. 6 in his rankings and explained: “Sam Darnold was the third-best performer against the Titans this season, which doesn’t feel significant until one realizes that the Titans are the second-most zone-heavy team in the NFL. Darnold has shredded man coverage this season but has struggled against teams that play a higher load of zone. Much like we’re talking about Jayden Daniels seeing a lot of deep coverage looks, teams adjusted to Darnold, caused a bit of a squeeze statistically, and now we see him coming out the other side like good quarterbacks do.”
Across the board, the Vikings rank as high as fifth and as low as eighth in various power rankings.
The team will also be heading to the postseason in January, barring a colossal collapse. Minnesota’s probability of making the postseason is 94.8%, per DVOA.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.