Jan 7, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) during warmups prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports.
Arguably the most significant domino of the NFL’s 2024 offseason involves the Chicago Bears and their decision to keep or sell the No. 1 overall pick in April.
Because the Bears traded the 1st overall pick last year, they own the Carolina Panthers’ pick this year, which just so happens to be No. 1.
Chicago must decide to re-up with Justin Fields for a massive contract extension or trade him elsewhere while presumably selecting Caleb Williams (USC) or Drake Maye (North Carolina) with the draft’s top pick.
And if the Bears retain the precious pick, trading Fields might become inevitable.
Unbelievably, the Minnesota Vikings actually have decent sportsbook odds of ending up with the mobile quarterback. Illinois Bet published odds last week, “Overall, the Falcons come in at +475 to land Fields via a trade, beating out the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders (at +900 apiece). The Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers follow, tied at +1200. There’s also a 40% (+150) chance that Fields and the Bears ink a long-term extension.”
Here’s a clean look at the theoretical odds if Fields ventures to a new team:
The trade pricetag for Fields is debatable and to be determined. Realistically, the Bears will probably land a 2nd-Round pick and spare change for the Ohio State alumnus, although ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper claimed this week that Chicago could grab a 1st-Rounder for Fields.
“If you trade Justin Fields to Atlanta, you could get the eighth pick overall,” Kiper said Monday.
Part of the thrill in swinging a trade for Fields, at least in theory, is the trade price. Most believe he’s gettable for a non-1st-Round pick, so if it were the Vikings, they’d hypothetically acquire him for a 2nd-Rounder or so while keeping their organic No. 11 pick in April’s draft. But Kiper’s theory jeopardizes that assumption.
There’s also the matter of Fields’ performance ceiling.
Per DVOA in 2023, Fields ranked 28th of 32 qualifying quarterbacks; only Mac Jones (Patriots), Sam Howell (Commanders), Zach Wilson (Jets), and Bryce Young (Panthers) played worse per the metric. According to EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric adjudicating Expected Wins Added, Fields ranked 22nd of 32 this season.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles said last week about the team’s impending choice about trading Fields or choosing a new quarterback with the 1st overall pick, “I’ve got to stay open-minded about it. Not to use the same quote, but when I say, ‘I need to be blown away,’ it’s the same setup because seeing the things that Justin did this year, his ability to make plays … keeping his eyes down the field, taking less sacks, you see a lot of growth there where he can continue to get better. So I’ll have the same mindset.”
The Vikings were allegedly interested in trading up the draftboard for Fields during the 2021 NFL Draft, but that theory was unconfirmed.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.