Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings fan reacts during the third quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
Sam Darnold began the 2024 regular season at a breakneck pace and wiggled into the NFL’s MVP race.
Fast forward to mid-November, and Darnold’s pursuit of the award is in peril.
Through four weeks of NFL action — when the Vikings cruised through September and early October — Darnold possessed Top 3 MVP odds, and onlookers stood in awe of his budding reclamation story. His team is 8-2 through 11 weeks and still prospering, but his personal production has slowed.
ESPN sized up the MVP race this week and determined Darnold’s stock was down to win the award. “Yes, Darnold rebounded in a big way against the Titans on Sunday after throwing three interceptions and no touchdown passes versus Jacksonville in Week 10, but he has still cooled down after a hot start,” Brooke Pryor wrote.
Darnold has +3000 odds to win MVP, which ranks 12th in the business at the moment.
Pryor added, “Since Oct. 20, he has thrown eight touchdown passes to six interceptions. In the five games prior, he threw 11 touchdown passes and had four picks.”
She also determined (in order) that Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), and Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) are the frontrunners to snag the coveted award.
Darnold ranks 11th per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added among all qualifying quarterbacks. The guy utterly dazzled through the season’s first three games, only cooling off pretty hardcore in a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars nine days ago. Darnold did, however, rebound nicely at Tennessee, delivering 3 touchdowns to one questionable turnover that should’ve been credited to Aaron Jones.
He currently inhabits MVP space with C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans, +2800) and Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles, +4000).
Darnold is on track for 4,058 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. If he can clean up the final part of that stat line, he’ll be in good shape. He’ll basically have to avoid interceptions for the next seven games. Or at least minimize them.
In other award-related matters for the Vikings, wide receiver Justin Jefferson ranks fifth per oddsmakers for the Offensive Player of the Year trophy. And head coach Kevin O’Connell is third in line for Coach of the Year behind Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions).
Darnold will have a chance to resurrect his MVP resume this Sunday at Soldier Field, a venue where Minnesota tends to produce sloppy wins as of late.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.