Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports.
If you believe the Minnesota Vikings have a reasonable shot at making the 2023 season special and akin to the 2017 campaign, sportsbooks do not agree.
The Vikings suddenly possess a 6-4 record, not far removed from a miserable 1-4 mark after the season’s first five games.
And while Vikings fans and local media might be high on the club after winning five straight games, oddsmakers are not.
A set of examples suggest that sportsbooks believe the Vikings recent success is fool’s good, backed up by longshot moneylines and point spreads. Here’s the evidence.
The Vikings are about 16th in line to win the Super Bowl heading into Week 11. When the season began, Kevin O’Connell’s team owned +4,000 Super Bowl odds, so the likelihood of an overdue Lombardi Trophy in Minneapolis is less than when the season started.
Of course, the Vikings did themselves no favors by starting 1-4, and losing Kirk Cousins to injury assuredly didn’t help the Vegas math.
Yet, for now, with seven games to go in the regular season, Vegas believes the Vikings are basically the Houston Texans as a Super Bowl bedfellow. The Texans also have +7,000 odds to win the chip.
Well, the AFC is so crowded with contenders. That must drive the Vikings Super Bowl stock down, right?
Nope.
Minnesota ranks seventh at the moment, with a +3,500 moneyline to win the NFC Championship. The seventh-place odds directly align with the Vikings current NFC playoff placement — the seventh seed. Even though the Vikings toppled the New Orleans Saints last weekend, oddsmakers still consider New Orleans a safer bet to represent the NFC in February. The Saints have a +3,000 moneyline to win the NFC title game.
Vegas believes Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas, Detroit, Seattle, and New Orleans are likelier to play football in February than Josh Dobbs’ Vikings.
Need more evidence? We’ve got it.
The Denver Broncos hold a 4-5 record after Week 10, squeaking out a victory over the suddenly hapless Buffalo Bills, a team that gift-wrapped Denver a win on Monday Night Football courtesy of four turnovers.
And, yes, this is the football team that surrendered 70 points in a single game to the Miami Dolphins in September.
Even at 6-4, the Vikings taking on a 4-5 team in primetime does not invoke confidence for sportsbooks. By a field goal or so, Vegas pegs the Broncos for a win over the Vikings.
Here’s how wacky that is, at least as a point spread: The Vikings have an 86.0% chance of reaching the playoffs per ESPN’s Power Football Index (FPI). The Broncos have a 5.9% FPI playoff probability.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.