The Fair Market Asking Price for Kirk Cousins

Through the first 120 starts of his career, Minnesota Vikings quarterback has tossed the sixth-most touchdown passes (219) in NFL history compared to his historical peers through 120 starts.

Cousins, in those first 120 starts, is accountable for more touchdown passes than Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Montana, and Kurt Warner. Like it or not, the man delivers the ball to the endzone while throwing relatively few interceptions.

Still, the Vikings might veer in a different direction this offseason, opting for the Cincinnati Bengals way of doing things in a quest to find a young, cheap passer like Joe Burrow. The plan would be bold, discarding a prolific quarterback for the hopeful addition of a better one — from a venue like the NFL draft, which is a clockwork crapshoot. Regardless, one can’t hit a target without pulling the trigger.

New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is responsible for the decision, presumably with the consultation of Vikings ownership. And if the Vikings do the deed, trading Cousins elsewhere to a team like the Denver Broncos or Pittsburgh Steelers, they should expect a 1st-Round pick in return, plus a 4th-Rounder or so.

That trade package could vary — more on that later.

Everything pertaining to quarterback trades level-set one year ago with the Mathew Stafford swap. The Detroit Lions received Jared Goff, two 1st-Round draft picks, and an extra 3rd-Rounder for deal sweetener from the Los Angeles Rams. One’s eye test may insist otherwise, but Stafford and Cousins are remarkably similar specimens, according to sports math. In fact, Cousins has even been more productive in the last three years:

Cousins won’t fetch a Stafford-like deal for two reasons: a) Stafford is so damn lovable, and Cousins is, well, not a media darling b) Stafford’s cap hit is “only” $21 million this season.

In 2022, Cousins would charge his hypothetical new team $35 million against the cap while Minnesota eats $10 million in dead cap money. A $35 million capsule is trickier to swallow than a $21 million one. Therefore, because Cousins isn’t as loved as Stafford — and it isn’t even close — plus the monetary entanglement of Cousins’ contract, the Vikings will get less for Cousins than the Lions did for Stafford.

If Cousins is bartered to Denver, the Broncos 9th-overall pick — and probably that only — would be the fair market asking price. Should a better team with a 20-something draft position want Cousins, then the trade package would likely entail that lower Round 1 pick, plus a 4th-Rounder or something in the neighborhood.

This all boils down to how Adofo-Mensah markets his commodity. If he “begs” teams to take Cousins as a favor, the price plummets. But the new general manager won’t do foolish stuff like that.

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Use Stafford’s price tag from 2021. Then, diminish it. That’s the roadmap to determining Cousins’ value.

One can also use the Carson Wentz trade as a barometer — that involved a 1st-Rounder from the Indianapolis Colts, too.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).