Kirk Cousins / Dalvin Cook
This is a sensitive topic because some Minnesota Vikings loyalists maintain faith the 2021 season can be rectified. Minnesota is 3-4 through eight weeks with a daunting schedule afoot.
If the next several games jet to the loss column, the franchise is heading toward a reset involving the head coach and perhaps the general manager. Anything not resulting in the playoffs for the 2021 Vikings will almost assuredly lead to Mike Zimmer’s exodus. And then the verdict is still out on general manager Rick Spielman.
In the event Spielman was terminated, the Vikings could be on the cusp of a full rebuild. These are the players who might be jettisoned in a sell-off of assets if the new hypothetical regime sought a fresh start.
Cook is one of the most popularly discussed chopping block names, chiefly because a new general manager may not believe in “paying running backs.” While that may be true, a trade of Cook next offseason would result in roughly $18 million in dead cap money for the Vikings. Would that be worth it to start fresh and wipe the rest of Cook’s salary off the books? Maybe. It all depends on the mindset of the new bossman.
The Vikings are also moderately deep at running back with Alexander Mattison and rookie Kene Nwangwu. And to be sure, usually when full rebuilds transpire, big-name halfbacks are vamoosed. Keep that in mind.
An expensive tailback sticking around amid a rip-it-to-studs rebuild feels counterproductive.
Kendricks would be easier to move because trading him would “only” slap the Vikings with an $8 million dead cap hit. He’ll be 30 in February — and thirtysomethings typically don’t partake in rebuilding ceremonies.
The UCLA alumnus is one of the best middle linebackers in the world, and Kendrick’s abilities would be squandered inside of a rags-to-maybe-riches rebuild. Kendricks has a few years left to perform at the Superman level he showcases each week, so he should probably head to a contender if Minnesota chooses not to be in that conversation for a few years. Hell, he might even snatch All-Pro honors this season.
What a gut punch, huh?
Rebuilds don’t discriminate. If the Vikings, in theory, want to start over, it is a no-brainer Mr. Minnesota would travel elsewhere for pass-catching services. Thielen is still playing tremendously, but at his age (32 next year), his talents will diminish in the next few years. It’s just the way it goes.
Thielen is another player, if traded, who would ding the Vikings front office for a big dead cap figure. Before his next free agency — in 2025 — Minnesota would be on the hook for about $20 million in dead cap carnage. Sometimes, though, those penalties are lesser important during a rebuilding phase.
Because of his bootstrap levitation story, Thielen might opt to remain a Vikings lifer. Yet, if he wants a Super Bowl ring while he’s a Top 15 wide receiver, he should leave the team should it embark on segue to full-scale change.
Rebuild or no rebuild, Hunter’s contractual status is totally up in the air. He “bet on himself” in 2021, but his pectoral muscle had other plans. Hunter was lost for the rest of 2021 less than a week ago.
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Last summer, Hunter was the subject of all Vikings contractual news. Minnesota’s brass compromised by moving money up for Hunter’s wallet in 2021, pushing the decision on his long-term future to this spring. The Vikings, as they scripted it, have a decision to make on Hunter in about four months.
Hunter is freakishly good but will have missed 1.5 seasons in the last two years due to injury. Spielman — or some other guy or gal — will have to decide on his Vikings future.
And the theorized rebuild muddies that conversation even more.
The one you came here to see.
When a rebuild is the choice, the incumbent quarterback is the first commodity to exit (well, after the coach and general manager). Plus, controversy on whether Cousins is good or not-so-good dominates media circles on a weekly basis anyway.
Cousins has an infamous $45 million cap hit heading into 2022. Thus, the new general manager must be creative in trading him to a Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston, etc. franchise. All of the $45 million in 2022 is fully guaranteed, dead cap mayhem.
If Spielman stays in charge, the most likely plan for the offseason is a Zimmer exit and Cousins mini-extension as the Vikings groom Kellen Mond or a 2022 rookie quarterback for Cousins’ departure after 2022.
But if the general manager is not named Spielman and he or she wants a brand new look, Cousins is gone. That person will just have to find a method to trade him away from the Vikings. That will be a mammoth undertaking.
Harrison Smith was not mentioned in this analysis because of his recent extension. He genuinely seems like a player who could remain with the franchise for the entirety of his career — a la Chad Greenway. But if you don’t buy it, toss him on this list, too.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).