Image courtesy of Vikings.com
A slimy spot of conversation about the Minnesota Vikings is that of the offensive line. Minnesota’s offensive line has been a point of strategic fragility since about 2009. When the Vikings offensive line is not-terrible, it tends to feel as if that is the franchise gold standard. “Serviceable equals good,” seems to be the motto.
Vikings loyalists have therefore grown accustomed to mediocrity-at-best as the synopsis for the crew upfront. These scribblings will not attempt persuasion to contrary. Instead, the recognizable conclusion is that the Vikings offensive line has been a tender subject for the better part of a decade.
From right to left, the line this season is theorized to looks as follows: Brian O’Neill (RT), Pat Elflein (RG), Garrett Bradbury (C), Dakota Dozier (LG), and Riley Reiff (LT).
It is more than fair to proclaim this group as one that is sans a heap of talent. O’Neill has played quite astutely through his first two campaigns, and center Garrett Bradbury seems to have a robust future ahead of him. The remaining three men could feasibly sprout into formidable players in 2020 or be on different NFL teams altogether in 2021.
That’s what we’re dealing with.
On paper, this is emphatically not a top-five-in-the-NFL bunchin 2020 in terms of talent. Yet, Gary Kubiak’s promotion to offensive coordinator heightens the chances of this group’s potential.
Why? Because he has done it before, routinely.
Image courtesy of Vikings.com
If you considered now-departed Kevin Stefanski the offensive coordinator last year, as you should, Gary Kubiak has been an offensive coordinator in 12 separate seasons with the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. Those teams with Kubiak as offensive coordinator reached the playoffs in eight seasons or 67 percent of the time.
Although Kubiak offenses ultimately run the football to set up the pass, his rushing offenses are consistently stellar. And by “consistently,” it’s 100 percent of the time.
In 12 seasons as offensive coordinator, his teams have ranked in the top 12 of rushing yards every single season. The lowest was 1999 with the Broncos when the team finished 12th in rushing. Moreover, these rushing offenses have finished in the top-fivetier nine times in 12 seasons.
Running the football – especially with a talent like Dalvin Cook – will not be trying endeavor for Kubiak and offensive line coach, Rick Dennison. It’s what they do, and the proof is the numbers.
Using Kubiak’s 12-season sample size once again as a parameter, his offensive lines are exemplary in protecting the quarterback. Back in his heyday as an offensive coordinator (1995-2006), sacks allowed was the primary metric by which to adjudicate quarterback protection. There was no Pro Football Focus or NextGen Stats in the 1990s or 2000s. So, we must rely on sacks allowed as the souce of data for this analysis.
In his dozen campaigns as offensive coordinator, Kubiak-led offensive lines finished in top 12 of sacks allowed (fewest) in nine out of 12 seasons or 75 percent of the time. The chief reason that John Elway and the Broncos escaped Super Bowl-loss hell was that they kept Elway upright and plowed holes for running back Terrell Davis. Those groups included the likes of Mark Schlereth, Tom Nalen, and Garry Zimmerman. Kubiak certainly had talent galore to work with. These 2020 Vikings obviously do not have that sort of satchel to dip into for talent, but those units were among the very best in the NFL in the late 1990s. What the Vikings need from this 2020 crew is something along the lines of a top-10 or top-12 ranking. The defense should be capable of picking up the remainder of the responsibility from a win-loss standpoint.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 4: Peyton Manning (18) of the Denver Broncos passes the ball for a gain of 27 yards in the first quarter. The Denver Broncos played the Minnesota Vikings at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, CO on October 4, 2015. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post)
It’s not singularly applicable that Kubiak offenses are good in the trenches and hope for the best the rest of the way – the offenses are good on the whole.
In 92 percent of seasons that Kubiak has been in charge offensively, his teams have finished in the top 10 of points scored. This ostensible proof of success is not interpretive or negotiable. 11 out of 12 times in freestanding seasons is no accident.
The offensive line may not jell instantaneously, but it should incrementally improve if Kubiak’s history is any indicator. His personnel decisions are not outwardly explained, nor should that occur. However, if the trigger is pulled on a transaction like the release of guard Josh Kline or the shift of Pat Elflien to the other side of the line, there is a reason for it.
Trust the man. He has four Super Bowl rings.