Why a Sam Darnold Trade Is Unlikely
The Minnesota Vikings have three realistic options regarding quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason.
Why a Sam Darnold Trade Is Unlikely
They can:
- Extend Him.
- Franchise tag-and-trade him.
- Let him hit the open market.
And while some Vikings-themed writers, aggregators, podcast hosts, and social media accounts have vociferously talked the talk of a Darnold trade, here’s why the Vikings probably won’t walk the walk.
Trade Value vs. Compensatory Pick Value
From a couch, it’s easy to say, “The Vikings should trade Darnold for a 1st- or 2nd-Round pick. That’s why I’d do.”
In the real world, however, Darnold’s trade value may not be far from his would-be compensatory draft pick value. When Kirk Cousins left in free agency last year, the Vikings received a 3rd-Rounder in this year’s draft.
Something similar could accompany Darnold’s possible free-agent exit.
And only the Vikings’ front office knows the variance between his realistic trade value and the compensatory skinny. It could be miniature.
Darnold’s Collapse
Darnold played dreadfully in the season’s final two games last year — in front of two humongous nationally-televised audiences.
To imagine that on-looking general managers would’ve watched Darnold’s faceplant and say, “I want to give up my 1st-Round draft pick for that on top of paying him $120 million over three years” — just feels like wishful thinking. And lunacy.
The Risk of Getting Stuck with Darnold
If Minnesota franchise tags Darnold, attempts to trade him, and then no team coughs up draft picks, well, it would be stuck with Darnold at $41 million and virtually no money to spend on free-agent newcomers.
The risk is intense, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would be playing with fire, especially because he has about 48 hours, starting on March 10th, to land the NFL’s top free agents.
Do you really want to glance down at your smartphone on Wednesday, March 12th, and think, “Oh, yeah. The Vikings couldn’t sign any free agents this year because they franchise-tagged Darnold, but now nobody wants him.”
Talking Something into Existence
Some Vikings-themed voices and fans really want a Darnold trade to happen. Therefore, they spread the word about the trade plausibility, laughably comparing Darnold to the September 2016 version of the Sam Bradford trade or Deshaun Watson in 2022.
Neither of those players were mere days from free agency.
Ultimately, folks want to talk a Darnold trade into existence — that perhaps isn’t rooted in reality. Reality and rah rah don’t jibe.
A Culture of Player Empowerment
Players despise the franchise tag, and Minnesota hasn’t used it in five years.
Tagging Darnold would end his NFL freedom, allowing the Vikings to dictate his future. Generally speaking, that doesn’t sound like this brand of Vikings, who have boasted team culture and player empowerment for four consecutive offseasons.
O’Connell’s Words
Kevin O’Connell appeared to predict Darnold’s free agency shortly before the Super Bowl.
“To be sitting here today, Sam Darnold, 14 wins later, his best season of his career by far. He deserves all the credit for that. We had belief in him and he earned it with his teammates on a daily basis. But then also to have J.J. McCarthy now healthy, gonna have a full offseason, I think it’s going to be really exciting. We’ll see how the free agency process works out for Sam,” O’Connell said on February 7th.
A day after, O’Connell also spoke candidly about his team’s quarterback plan in the next few months. “We drafted him 10th overall for a reason,” O’Connell told CBS Sports on Saturday, February 8th, about J.J. McCarthy, his 22-year-old passer.
O’Connell added, “I believe Sam has played himself into being kind of the marquee free-agent quarterback available. I do believe that his teammates and coaches and, our front office, and myself would love to have Sam back in Minnesota. But at the same time we do feel very confident in J.J. McCarthy. He’s healthy.”
Those comments sound like the antithesis of a Darnold trade.
A Vikings Dream Will Finally Come True
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.