Brian Flores Could Be Vikings Hero against Regression
No matter what happens in free agency, the 2023 NFL Draft, OTAs, training camp, or preseason, the Minnesota Vikings will eventually be a consensus pick to regress next season — if they aren’t that pick already.
Why? Well, Minnesota won 13 games in 2022 but finished the season with a -3 point differential. Opposing teams scored more points than the Vikings, yet Minnesota showcased a 13-4 record and an NFC North title. It became the first team in NFL history to win 13+ games in a single season, with an underwater point differential.
Brian Flores Could Be Vikings Hero against Regression
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How did this happen? Simple, actually. The Vikings registered a spotless 11-0 record in one-score games and were creamed by the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers. The loss to Philadelphia in Week 2, 24-7, didn’t help either. In that regard, it was a perfect storm for the pesky point differential stat.
NFL Network’s Kyle Brandt aptly described the 2022 Vikings in December. He said on Good Morning Football, “Are the Vikings a huge fraud, or are they a genuinely special team? The answer is: yes.”
After that, one might ask — why do we even bother picking teams that will regress? a) It happens in sports all the time b) The NFL’s playoff-participant field turns over by 50% nearly every season. Half the teams that reached the postseason in 2021 didn’t get to the playoffs in 2022. The working theory suggests about seven teams from this playoff tournament won’t reach it again next year. And so forth.
When those conversations begin — who will miss the postseason in 2023 that made it in 2022? — you can bet your last dollar that the Vikings will be front and center.
However, thanks to the hire of Brian Flores on Monday, Minnesota might avoid the nasty automatic regression.
The Vikings have one year — maybe two — to shoot for the stars with Flores. He should be a head coach in the NFL right now, probably with the Miami Dolphins, but the Dolphins brass had other [possibly nefarious] plans. NFL analyst and writer Aaron Wilson tweeted Tuesday, one day after the Flores hire, “On new Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores withdrawing from Cardinals head coaching search, several league sources emphasized how many potential head coaching jobs will be open in 2024 and was a consideration for former Dolphins head coach.”
Flores will be a head coach soon, but his stop before that catapult is Minnesota. The Vikings ranked 27th per defense DVOA in 2022, 30th in points allowed, and 31st in yards allowed. Those statistics are pitiful and unbecoming of a 13-4 team. It’s the reason everyone called the purple team fraudulent in the first place. Flores “won’t have to do much” to improve the Vikings defense.
O’Connell proved his team could win 13 games with a poor defense — imagine the possibilities with a good defense led by Flores? See, Flores can be the regression hero. His tutelage on his side of the ball alone can whisk the Vikings to anti-regression and perhaps guide the team back to the postseason. Minnesota hasn’t reached the playoffs in back-to-back years since 2008-2009. They’re due.
Replicating 13 wins is tricky for any team not employing a Patrick Mahomes-type QB1, so the Vikings face an uphill battle regardless. But hiring Flores and his acumen for seemingly guaranteed results perhaps hedges the bet to tally an 11-6 or 12-5 record. Without Flores and if the Vikings took a flyer on a first-time defensive coordinator, the national court of public opinion would tab the team for around a nine-win season.
Flores running the defense reduces the regression fear.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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