Feb 1, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; during the Super Bowl 50 host committee press conference at the Moscone Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports.
One year ago, Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd predicted the 2022 Minnesota Vikings would “double their win total” from 2021, implying Minnesota was on deck to finish 16-1.
He later clarified his stance and scheduled the Vikings for “13 or 14 wins” — a forecast that turned out to be accurate, even if it was silly at the time.
Well, Cowherd is at it again, this time pegging Minnesota for a successful season but presumably falling short of the 13- or 14-win prognostication.
Cowherd dropped NFL predictions this week, including playoff participants, and he claimed the Vikings would grab a Wildcard berth while the loved-by-everybody Detroit Lions seize the NFC North for the first time since 1993.
He explained, “I think losing Dalvin Cook is something for Minnesota, and I don’t think they’ll win all those one-score games. Last year, I believe they were 11-0 in those. I’m buying Detroit, but I’m buying Detroit to win 10 games, not like 13. People are going crazy on ’em; it’s still Detroit, but they’ve become a playoff team. Packers slide back to about a seven-win team. Bears [get] 6-7 [wins], whatevs.”
Indeed, the Vikings won every one-score game on their platter last year — until the postseason arrived. Kevin O’Connell’s club ransacked teams in close-game situations during his first season but lost by seven points at home to the New York Giants in the Wildcard Round five months ago. Accordingly, most NFL experts believe the Vikings outlandishly overachieved in 2022 and are destined for regression in 2023.
But not Cowherd, at least not via dropping Minnesota all the way out of the playoffs. He picked the NFC North to look like this:
As of late June, these are the Vegas odds of winning the NFC North:
So, Cowherd’s prediction basically follows the Vegas model, although Minnesota’s +300 forecast probably isn’t good enough for a playoff trip. Sportsbooks nominate the Vikings for 8.5 wins in 2023, a middle-of-the-pack standing.
The Vikings haven’t won back-to-back division titles in 14 years, and the Lions haven’t taken home the NFC North for three decades, so something’s gotta give. The Packers also haven’t experienced a season without Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers since 1991, which is the last time Detroit won a playoff game. Meanwhile, the Bears progression almost singlehandedly depends on Justin Fields’ maturation.
Cowherd picked the Lions, Eagles, Panthers, and 49ers to win their respective divisions, with the Vikings, Saints, and Rams as Wildcard trippers.
NFL training camps kick off in about five weeks.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.