Vikings Face Toughest Remaining Challenge of Season. Yes, from Them.
Jeff Diamond
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Vikings Insider, The GM’s View
The Vikings can clinch the NFC North title on Sunday in Detroit, but I think there’s a good chance they’ll have to wait until the following Saturday when they host the lowly Colts.
The Lions have won four of their last five games, with their only defeat a three-point loss to Buffalo. They are coming off a 40-14 demolition of Jacksonville in which Detroit scored on all eight possessions (other than the end-of-game kneeldown). Meanwhile, the 10-2 Vikings beat a feisty Jets team 27-22 in another down-to-the-wire finish.
Lions QB Jared Goff is hot with seven TD passes and only one interception in his last five games. It’s a tough matchup for a 32nd-ranked Vikings pass defense against the No. 8 passing offense, but then again, the Lions defense ranks dead last (although they’ve played better lately).
The Vikings overcame 14-0 and 24-14 deficits to beat the Lions 28-24 in September on Kirk Cousins’ 28-yard TD pass to K.J. Osborn with 45 seconds remaining. That was an early indication that Kevin O’Connell would be an aggressive coach who didn’t play for the tying field goal and take his chances in overtime. It was the first of six comeback wins this season by the Purple.
I see this game in Detroit as Minnesota’s toughest remaining regular season game. Next up after the Lions are two very winnable home games, first against the 4-8-1 Colts, who are reeling after giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter in a 54-19 loss at Dallas last week. Then, it’s the Giants who have to travel on Christmas week, and they are looking shaky despite their 7-4-1 record (that could well be 7-6-1 by the time they face the Vikings since they are home vs. Philly and at Washington the next two weeks).
In the final two games, the Vikings are likely to face a Packers team with Jordan Love starting by then (after they will likely be officially eliminated from playoff contention in Miami in Week 16). There’s a good chance many, if not all, the Vikings starters will sit out the regular season finale in Chicago on January 8 if their playoff seed is locked in.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Lions:
1. Pressure Goff: the Vikings had no sacks of Detroit’s QB in the Week 3 matchup, and they must put the heat on him, or he could pick apart Minnesota’s pass defense as teams have been doing lately. Za’Darius Smith is sackless over his last three games as he’s battled a knee issue. He and Danielle Hunter, along with D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones, need to play well this week and at least force Goff to throw on the move and not sit in the pocket. A few timely blitzes by Harrison Smith also will help. It won’t be easy against one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
2. Limit the explosive plays, be strong again on third down and in the red zone and continue forcing turnovers: the Jets had a ridiculous seven plays of 20 or more yards against the Vikings D but were ineffective on third down and in the red zone, and Mike White threw two interceptions. The Lions put up 416 total yards last time against the Vikings D but went 3 of 16 on third down. They are loaded with playmakers led by wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (76 receptions for 830 yards and 6 TDs), who made the game-winning catch in front of Cam Dantzler in Detroit last season.
Dantzler is expected to return on Sunday from his ankle injury, and the Vikings need the good version of Cam (who has played better this season) after teams have been picking on his replacements for the past four weeks. D.J. Chark also has come on lately at wide receiver (5 catches for 98 yards last week). First-round pick Jameson Williams is now active (off his ACL injury) and is a deep threat who must be well covered.
The Vikings need to stop the run against excellent backs Jamaal Williams (league-leading 14 rushing TDs) and D’Andre Swift, who combined for 118 yards in the last meeting. Having Dalvin Tomlinson back is a big help in run D, as we saw last week on the goal line stands against the Jets.
After the two key interceptions last week, the Vikings have 20 takeaways to rank third. They’ll probably need a couple and not turn it over on offense to win this game.
3. Run the ball to control TOP: The Lions had eight more minutes in time of possession in the earlier meeting. Dalvin Cook ran for 96 yards and a TD, and he has had some big games against the Lions. Running the ball and hitting on short passes to control time of possession will help keep the explosive Lions offense off the field.
4. Big plays in passing game: this starts with Cousins being more consistent throughout the game compared to his uncharacteristically high number of off-target throws last week. Cousins needs to spread the ball around but get Justin Jefferson involved early and often. J.J. had only six targets in the last Lions game, with his lowest output of the season—three catches for 14 yards. The Lions blanketed him with corner Jeff Okudah and safety help, but getting Jefferson in motion and coming out of the backfield will help free him up. And, of course, Cousins needs to give him contested catch opportunities. Jefferson did have 11 receptions for 182 yards and 1 TD in Detroit last year, but Okudah didn’t play.
If tackle Christian Darrisaw is held out again due to recovery from concussions, the Vikings will need to help Blake Brandel when he faces the Lions top sacker in Aidan Hutchinson, and James Houston has three sacks in the last two games, so he’s a threat, too.
5. Let T.J. embarrass the Lions: it’s still hard to believe Hockenson was traded within the division from the team that drafted him No. 8 overall in 2019. He’d love a big game against his former team, and O’Connell and Cousins should give him plenty of opportunities.
6. Win the special teams battles: Greg Joseph had a 5 for 5 kicking day last week, and Ryan Wright has had an excellent rookie season. They need to have good games along with the coverage units and the return men when they have opportunities.
7. Get rid of the virus hitting the team: things were better on Thursday with only Hunter and C.J. Ham out of practice after five players were absent Wednesday. But the Lions also are dealing with illness as three players have been absent this week, including top corner Okudah and a fine punt returner and third receiver in Kalif Raymond.
Jeff’s Prediction: The Lions have good memories from last year’s last-second win, and they’re playing hard and with confidence for their energetic coach Dan Campbell. This is clearly a more clutch Vikings team starting with confidence in Cousins to lead late game-winning drives and a defense that gives up a lot of yards but usually comes up with a big takeaway to close a game (as they did vs. Detroit in Week 3 with Josh Metellus’ late pick).
The Lions are favored by 2 ½, a bit of a slap at the Vikings, who have five more victories this season, but it’s a reflection of the Lions’ fine play of late and being at home. Detroit needs a win to stay in the wildcard hunt, so they may play with a bit more urgency than the Vikings, who can win the division this week or in a future week.
I see a close, high-scoring game, and I’m picking the hot Lions at home 30-27, but I won’t be a bit surprised if the Vikings emerge victorious.
Around the NFL Observations:
1. Biggest games this Sunday include the Jets at Bills, Eagles at Giants, and Bucs at 49ers. I like the Bills to avenge an earlier road loss to the Jets. The Eagles—led by Jalen Hurts–have too much for the Giants. And the Bucs-49ers game is interesting after Tom Brady led a late rally to beat the Saints, and the Niners will start rookie Brock Purdy at quarterback due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot. It’s a bad matchup for Tampa Bay’s O-line against Nick Bosa and San Fran’s stout pass rush, so I’m picking the 49ers to win their sixth straight and keep the heat on the Vikings for the No. 2 seed.
2. Joe Burrow has never beaten the Browns, but here’s hoping he and his Bengals crush Deshaun Watson and Cleveland.
3. The Cowboys sent Odell Beckham on his way without signing him after his visit this week due to their concern that his ACL injury hasn’t fully healed. That’s good news for any potential Dallas playoff opponents, including the Vikings.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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