The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 7

Justin Jefferson Has Made His Case. For Now.
Oct 16, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 7 — the bye week. Kevin O’Connell’s team won its fifth game of 2022, beating the Miami Dolphins, 24-16, in Week 6.

FiveThirty Eight = 92%

Change from Last Week = +8.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after the Vikings win over Miami that Minnesota was the 7th-best team in football with the 3rd most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings now seem like a reasonable pick to win the NFC North, which would be their first such triumph since 2017. The Green Bay Packers have seized the division in every season since 2019. However, now, Minnesota has a two-game lead on Green Bay, plus the temporary tiebreaker from defeating the Packers in Week 1.

Football Outsiders = 88.9%

Change from Last Week = +7.9%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

And have a peek at the Packers sizable dip — for even making the postseason. According to Football Outsiders, they’re nearly a longshot to make the January dance.

The Vikings playoff odds rose substantially, and they’re even favored to win the division once again. While some Vikings fans may feel cautious about celebrating prematurely — mainly because of the 2016 meltdown — the purple team is truly in a wonderful spot for postseason positioning.

Sportsbooks = 92.3%

Change from Last Week = +7.7%

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason increased after Week 6, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North, the Packers, Cardinals, and Buccaneers lost, and teams don’t generally fall off a cliff after 5-1 starts.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -1200.

PlayoffStatus.com = 90%

Change from Last Week = +12.0%

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings as honest-to-goodness playoff contenders. According to the site, the Vikings are the third most-likely franchise to reach the postseason. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 at U.S. Bank Stadium — on October 30th.




Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).