The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 4

Don’t Expect a Gimme as Vikings Host Da Bears
Sep 25, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints.

FiveThirty Eight = 67%

Change from Last Week = +9.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com

FiveThirtyEight decided after the Vikings win over the Detroit Lions that Minnesota was the 11th-best team in football with the 9th most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings needed to win against Detroit to keep pace with the rest of the NFC North, of which all teams are 2-1 — besides the Lions.

Football Outsiders = 66.1%

Change from Last Week = +11.5%

Image Courtesy of FooutballOutsiders.com

If you want to know how crucial the Vikings win was in Week 3, look no further than the Lions 9.5% dip. The Vikings would’ve cratered akin to that.

But Minnesota also beat Green Bay in Week 1, so that helps, too. The Packers could’ve done the Vikings a favor by losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but Green Bay has no interest in doing Minnesota favors.

Sportsbooks = 71.4%

Change from Last Week = 3.6%

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason decreased a smidgen after Week 3, probably because the Packers beat the Buccanneers, and the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Arizona Cardinals.

The dip was not substantial, and 71.4% isn’t too shabby.

PlayoffStatus.com = 55%

Change from Last Week = +11.0%

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. However, it finally came around to recognize the Vikings as playoff contenders. It considers Minnesota the 12th-most-likely franchise to play meaningful January football.

The Vikings take on the Saints in Week 4 at Tottenham Hotspur in London.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).