The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 3

Vikings May Not Have Been as Locked Down as Stats Showed on Monday
Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni meets with Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 3 against the Detroit Lions.

FiveThirty Eight = 58%

Change from Last Week = 15.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com

FiveThirtyEight decided after the Vikings loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that Minnesota was the 13th-best team in football with the 10th most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings performance from Week 1 to Week 2 was truly Jekyll and Hyde, and most of the next five days will be spent by fans determining which brand of Vikings is closer to the real version.

Football Outsiders = 54.6%

Change from Last Week = 17.7%

Image Courtesy of FootballOutsiders

With the snap of two fingers, the Green Bay Packers assumed presumptive control of the NFC North per Football Outsiders. The Vikings egg-laying was so vivid that it allowed the Packers to soar past Minnesota after Green Bay handled the Chicago Bears with ease on Sunday Night Football.

Folks knew the Packers would be back — in a hurry — but not many believed the Vikings would play so poorly under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.

Sportsbooks = 75.0%

Change from Last Week = +5.8%

The Vikings Top Offensive Performers at Eagles, per PFF
Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports.

Minnesota’s odds of reaching the postseason increased after Week 2, an incredible occurrence after the Vikings were shellacked by the Eagles. The Vikings are technically in first place via NFC North standings, and no team besides the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants, or Philadelphia Eagles has taken the NFC by stranglehold.

Oddsmakers still like the Vikings to play meaningful January football.

PlayoffStatus.com = 44%

Change from Last Week = 13.0%

12 Snap Reactions after Eagles-Vikings
Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) scores on a 26-yard touchdown run against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson (7) and safety Camryn Bynum. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports.

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. Therefore, because of the Week 2 loss, the Vikings dropped below the equator for playoff probability.

The Vikings take on the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 3.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).

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