The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 10

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Nov 6, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell gestures against the Washington Commanders during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 10, with a road contest at the Buffalo Bills up next. In Week 9, Kevin O’Connell’s team won its seventh game of 2022, beating the Washington Commanders, 20-17.

FiveThirty Eight = 99%

Change from Last Week = +3.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 9 that Minnesota was the 5th-best team in football with the 2nd most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since 2017. The Green Bay Packers have seized the division in every season since 2019. However, now, Minnesota has a 4.5-game lead on Green Bay, plus the temporary tiebreaker from defeating the Packers in Week 1.

Football Outsiders = 96.1%

Change from Last Week = +4.4%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The Packers loss in Detroit aided the Vikings playoff probability. Green Bay has lost five consecutive games. It also enhanced Minnesota’s odds of winning the NFC North. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers playoffs hopes are fading — probably in an irreversible manner.

Too, the Lions are the only non-Vikings team from the NFC North to win a game in the last two weeks. A foundational, historic collapse would be needed for the Vikings not to win the division.

Sportsbooks = 99.0%

Change from Last Week = +2.3%

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason increased after Week 9, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North while Green Bay shot itself in the foot for a fifth straight week. The Packers simply are not the same as in years past.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -10000. = 99%

Change from Last Week = +2.0%

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings sure-fire playoff participants. According to the site, the Vikings are the second most-likely franchise to reach the postseason. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Bills in Week 10 at Highmark Stadium and are 7.5-point underdogs.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).