MyBookie’s Head Oddsmaker Shares Betting Insights Heading into Conference Championship Weekend

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 17: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is sacked by outside linebacker Mack Wilson #51 of the Cleveland Browns, Mahomes is injured on the play and leaves in the third quarter of the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 17, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

 Just one more game separate four teams from Super Bowl LV. MyBookie Head Oddsmaker David Strauss expert insights for how to wager this weekend.

NFL Conference Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

Green Bay Packers -3.5

Over/Under: 52 (-115)

Packers Betting Insights

Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers talks to Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins after an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Green Bay, Wis. (MIKE ROEMER – ASSOCIATED PRES FILE)

Green Bay’s games have hit the over in nine out of 16 outings this season (56.2%).
Green Bay has put together a 10-6 record against the spread this season.
The Packers have an ATS record of 6-4 when playing as at least 4.0-point favorites.
The Packers have put an average of 31.8 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 9.6 more than the 22.2 the Buccaneers have surrendered in each contest.
In games where Green Bay score at least 31.8 points this season, they are 8-0 overall and 8-0 against the spread.
When the Tampa Bay defense allows 22.2 points or fewer this year, the Buccaneers have put together a 6-1 overall record and a 6-1 record against the spread.

Buccaneers Betting Insights

Matt Engstrom Vikings Illustrations Vikings Plunder Buccaneers

Vikings Plunder Buccaneers – by Matt Engstrom

 

9 of Tampa Bay’s 16 games this year have gone over the point total (56.2% of its opportunities).
Tampa Bay has a 9-7 record against the spread.
The Buccaneers are 7-4 ATS when playing as at least 4.0-point underdogs.
The Buccaneers, on average, score 7.7 more points per game this season (30.8) than the Packers allow (23.1).
Tampa Bay is 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread when they score at least 30.8 points this season.
When Green Bay allows opposing offenses to put 23.1 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 9-0 overall and 7-2 against the spread.

Total Facts

The Packers and their opponents have combined to score more than this matchup’s point total (50.5 points) in 62.5% of their games this season (10 of 16 opportunities).
The Buccaneers and their opponents have combined to score at least 50.5 points in 56.2% of their games this year (nine of 16 chances).
The two teams average a combined 12.1 more points per game (62.6) than this matchup’s total of 50.5 points.
The Packers and the Buccaneers have seen their opponents average a combined 5.2 less points per game than the over/under of 50.5 set in this outing.
The average point total in Packers games this season is 4.4 more points than the total of 50.5 in this matchup.
The average point total for the Buccaneers this season is 2.4 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Betting Insights: Last Three Games (Both Teams)

The Packers average total over the last three games is 2.2 points fewer than the 50.5 total listed for this matchup.
Green Bay has gone 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall in their last three contests.
Green Bay has hit the over two times in their last three games.
The Buccaneers have averaged a total of 61 combined points over their last three games, 10.5 greater than this game’s over/under of 50.5.
Tampa Bay has been playing up to expectations, going 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 straight up over the last three contests.
Tampa Bay has hit the over two times in their last three contests.

AFC Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills +3

Kansas City Chiefs -3

Over/Under 53.5 (-110)

Chiefs Betting Insights

Nov 22, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid signals against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City has compiled a losing 7-9 record against the spread this season.
The Chiefs are just 5-8 ATS when playing as at least 3.0-point favorites.
Kansas City has played in eight games this year that went over the point total (50% of its outings).
The Chiefs, on average, score 6.2 more points per game this season (29.6) than the Bills allow (23.4).
In games where Kansas City score at least 29.6 points this season, they are 8-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
When the Buffalo defense allows 23.4 points or fewer this year, the Bills have accumulated an 8-0 overall record and a 6-2 record against the spread.

Bills Betting Insights

Matt Engstrom Vikings Illustrations Vikings Wrestle Bills

Vikings Wrestle Bills – by Matt Engstrom

11 of Buffalo’s 16 games this year have gone over the point total (68.8% of its outings).
Buffalo has put together an 11-5 record against the spread this season.
The Bills are 5-4 ATS when playing as at least 3.0-point underdogs.
The Bills have averaged 8.7 more points this season (31.3) than the Chiefs have allowed (22.6).
Buffalo is 6-0 overall and 6-0 against the spread when they score at least 31.3 points this season.
Kansas City is 9-0 overall and 6-3 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 22.6 points.

Total Facts

The Chiefs’ average point total in outings this season is 52.2, 1.3 points below the total in this game.
Bills games this year have averaged an over/under of 54.8 points, 1.3 more than the point total in this matchup.
The Chiefs and their opponents have combined for 53.5 points — this matchup’s over/under — in nine of 16 outings (56.2%) this season.
The Bills have played in eight games this year (out of 16 total matchups — 50% of opportunities) where they and their opponents combined to score more than 53.5 points.
The Chiefs and the Bills combine to average 7.4 more points per game than the total of 53.5 set for this game.
The Chiefs and the Bills have seen their opponents average a combined 7.5 fewer points per game than the over/under of 53.5 set in this outing.

Betting Insights: Last Three Games (Both Teams)

Kansas City is just 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 straight up over their last three contests.
The over has been kind to Kansas City. They have gone over the total two times in their last three outcomes.
The Chiefs have averaged a total of 50.3 combined points over their last three games, 3.2 less than this matchup’s total of 53.5.
Buffalo has been in top form recently, going 3-0 against the spread and 3-0 straight up over their last three contests.
Buffalo has gone over the total two times in their last three games.
The Bills total over the last three games is 11.8 points greater than the 53.5 total given for this matchup.

 

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