The Minnesota Vikings Have a First Down Problem…
AJ Mansour
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With the late afternoon, road game out on the West Coast this last weekend for the Vikings, I was afforded a little down-time before my coverage started to tune into some of the other games around the league. I spent some time with the Dolphins/Panthers game, flipped over to see a bit of the Giants/Eagles matchup and caught the tail-end of the Buccaneers topping the Colts.
It was in that game where something discussed between Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen stuck out to me like the sorest of thumbs. Discussing one of the things that makes that Bucs such a dangerous team, the pairing hit on their first down efficiency and how their success on first down plays leads them to an advantage on second down, and third down and ultimately allows them to move the ball up and down the field at relative will.
I’m paraphrasing here, but essentially what they were saying was that by gaining chunk yardage on first down, let’s call it 5 or more yards, it opens up the entirety of the team’s playbook for them on second down. In turn, that puts the offense at an advantage against a defense that has to then prepare for a pass play, a run play, a play-action and more. With manageable yardage faced on second down, the entirety of the play book is on the table for the Buccaneers. Then it all trickles down from there.
Immediately I thought of the main frustration shared by Vikings fans on a weekly basis. The predictable run plays or dump off pass plays on first down that set them up for a disadvantaged situation on second down.
So I dug through the official gamebooks for the past month’s worth of Vikings games and low and behold, look what I found.
On average, the Vikings are facing 9.2 yards to go on second down situations.
In much the same way that the Buccaneers create an advantage for themselves heading into second down, the Minnesota Vikings are creating a disadvantage for themselves with long yardage to go on second down. With more than 9 yards to go on average, you’re almost assuredly passing on second down and the defense knows it.
So what goes into the struggles on first down? If you ask Twitter it’s almost assuredly poor play-calling by first year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and there’s something to that, but it goes deeper.
It’s about a struggling offensive line’s inability to open run lanes for the running back. How many times have we seen Dalvin bounce around looking for a whole or Alexander Mattison run into the back of his offensive line?
It’s about that same offensive lines struggles against the pass rush forcing an immobile quarterback to flush the pocket, rush a throw or throw it away.
It’s about Kirk’s tendency to rush through reads and fall back on the dump off. That’s some on Kirk and it’s some on the play-calling mentioned above. We’ve heard them talk about long-developing plays that simply don’t have the time to fully play out.
And it’s about penalties, sloppy play and self-inflicted wounds setting yourselves back and forcing unfavorable situations on your team.
If we’re describing this season’s struggles in a nutshell, those four previous paragraphs are a good place to start. That’s the perfect recipe to lose winnable games in which opportunities to triumph once existed.
So let’s go back to that 9.2 yards to go faced on second down. I mentioned that it tips your hand a bit that you’re likely to pass. When the defense knows that, they are able to do a few things in an attempt to thwart your efforts. Namely, they’ll double up either Thielen or Jefferson, pressure the quarterback and leave that enticing safety valve open for Kirk to take for a 2 yard gain…now the Vikings are facing third and long and again, tipping their hand to a likely passing scenario.
See the problem?
And when you look at it this way, diagnosing some of the struggles we’ve seen play out on the field, it’s clear as day.
So how can you combat this?
The easiest way would be to call more quick strike plays on first down early in the game. The short slants, the bubble screens, anything to get the ball out of Kirk’s hands and into the hands of your play makers before the offensive line can fold. Establish these chunk yardage plays early and then open it up more later in the game with the defense tired and looking for the quick plays. Get four, five, maybe six yards on first down and open up the rest of the play book.
It’s clearly not quite as easy as I’ve laid it out above, but they need to do something to find more manageable situations on second down or we’re going to continue to see much of the same with games slipping through your grasp due to negative situations playing out on the field.