No, the Vikings Don’t Play Down to Competition
Dustin Baker
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Much like the globe, 2020 has been a peculiar year for the Minnesota Vikings. The team flatulated repeatedly during the first six weeks with a win at Houston as the sole spot of accomplishment. Even that game was a whirlwind of ebb and flow. The Vikings performance was astute in select spots (first half at Seattle, chunks of the Titans game) but downright nasty in others (first half of Week 1 vs. Green Bay, at Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta). It was a team unbecoming of the product customarily exhibited by head coach Mike Zimmer.
That was all in the first portion of the 2020 season. Minnesota published that worthless novel following the Falcons embarrassment and began writing a new story during the Week 7 bye.
This book is a significantly better read.
Since the team’s bye week, the Vikings have won 83% of their games, the quarterback was the NFL’s top passer in November, and the running back won Offensive Player of the Month honors.
Suddenly, the Vikings are slated to play a road playoff game in January. Once underneath a 1-5 record and barreling toward a top 10 draft pick in April, Minnesota now controls its destiny to reach the playoffs.
Still, some have lambasted the Vikings for sloppy wins against the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars. “Zimmer plays down to the competition” has morphed into the new talking point. Rather than proclaiming excitement for a season revitalization, the nitpickers found a new narrative.
But it’s false.
Beat Losing Teams 80% of the Time Under Zimmer
Disproving the notion that Mike Zimmer’s coaching style is one that “plays downs to the competition” is as straightforward as it gets. Put simply – his team doesn’t habitually do it. The false narrative is likely derived from a bad loss to the Buffalo Bills in 2018 or a slaughter courtesy of the Colts in 2016. It is fair to mention those games as low points of the Zimmer Era, but it is outlandishly irresponsible to assert that Zimmer routinely gets in the mud with bad teams.
Why? Because the numbers stare you in the face. Since Zimmer took over the franchise in 2014, the Vikings own a record of 49-12-1 (.798) against teams that finished the season with a losing record. For this metric and in this timeframe, this is the fourth-best in the NFL. Only the Chiefs, Patriots, and Packers are better in this regard.
One cannot state as a fact that a coach “plays down to competition” when that same coach wins 80% of such ballgames, to the tune of fourth-best in the industry. Or – the proclaimer of this falsehood must admit that fourth-best in the metric is still not enough for their personal liking. In that scenario, a realm of ignoring basic logic and reason is created.
3rd-Most Wins by 10+ Points Against Losing Teams
A seductive counterpoint may be “Well, he doesn’t blow out those bad teams as he should.”
Nope, wrong again. Zimmer does that, too. In the same period (since 2014), the Vikings have defeated teams that finished the season with a losing record by 10 or more points – 30 times. That is, in 30 games, the Vikings snuffed out opponents by 10+ points when said team had a losing record (at the conclusion of the season).
This is the third-most such wins in the league since 2014. Only the Patriots (32 wins) and Chiefs (30 wins) have beaten bad teams by 10+ points more than the Vikings. For more context, a team like the Tennessee Titans have 11 wins with these parameters since 2014. Minnesota has 30 – nearly triple that of the Titans.
Why Did the Narrative Change?
What the hell happened to the old narrative? The knock before 2020 was that Zimmer couldn’t take the heat versus teams with winning records and built a reputation on beating bad teams. Where did that talking point go? Although it, too, was seriously flawed, it was closer to the truth than “playing down to competition.”
Perhaps this is immediacy bias or “what have they done for me lately.” Indeed, the Vikings have struggled against several opponents in 2020 – good and bad ones. But that is self-evident. Minnesota is without its starting DE1, NT, SLB, CB1 – two of which are Pro Bowlers. Losing Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Anthony Barr, and Mike Hughes is a colossal ordeal to counteract. Next-man-up is a sexy catchphrase, but it does not mandate that the next man up will be anywhere near as good as the fallen Pro Bowler. Of course, the Vikings are playing games tighter than usual – the red meat of their defense is on the sidelines or at home.
It’s more than acceptable to be frustrated that 2020 has been topsy-turvy. But to suggest that Zimmer doesn’t routinely beat bad teams (or always wins squeakers against them) is exorbitantly false.