What the Vikings Need to Do this Off-Season to Avoid a Blow-Out Hangover/Collapse (Thoughts on the QB/Offensive Coordinator Position(s))
Joe Johnson
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There is some debate out there, at least among the hosts of the purpleJOURNAL Podcast, when it comes to whether or not certain statistics means that the Vikings are doomed to fall apart in 2018-19. Luke Braun, the statistics guru mentioned that certain stats (namely the point made before the Vikings/Eagles NFC Championship that stated that indoor teams playing outside in the NFC Championship were 0-12 because specifically of the fact that they couldn’t play outdoors) were mere coincidences instead of the reason for that statistic. While it’s safe to say that the turf/outdoor venue wasn’t the (at least sole) reason that the Vikings were absolutely destroyed by the Eagles on Sunday, there are certain stats or realities that the Vikings definitely should pay attention to this off-season to ensure that they’re not one of the teams that suffer from a terrible follow up season in 2018-19 thanks to the complete and utter collapse they had in Philadelphia. There’s a few historical stats/realities that aren’t working in the Vikings favor and that’s that there is typically a lot of turnover year-to-year in the NFL in terms of which teams make the playoffs, and when it comes to the Vikings as a whole, how they’ve fared the season after they’ve lost in the NFC Championship game. Neither of those things fare well for them, and while Luke is right that this team is different from those Vikings squads (namely the ’99, ’01 and ’10 teams and namely because of their defensive core) you have to think that the Vikings’ psyche as a defense was at least partially damaged by Dough Pederson and the Eagles.
So, what should the organization do to avoid coming out of the gates wounded in 2018? A season that will see the return of a lot of great players both in the division (Aaron Rodgers), the conference (Ezekiel Elliot is back from his six game suspension, Carson Wentz will be back in Philly) and the league (DeShaun Watson will be back for the Texans, for example) and that will also see the Vikings without their offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur, who left to be the head coach of the New York Giants (after interviewing for multiple head coaching gigs) after he took a Vikings offense that was without their starting quarterback or running back and turned them into one of the better in the league? The most obvious thing they need to do is that they need to replace Shurmur, but there’s also the off-season decision(s) that they need to make at the quarterback position. So, let’s break both of those down to put at least my endorsement for both (one of which I’m sure I can speak for the other hosts of the purpleJOURNAL Podcast/main writers of the site in Joe Oberle and Luke Braun and the other I’m sure I can say they’re not in agreement with/about) and to let you guys know where they’re at and who they’re speaking to (for the offensive coordinator position). While I introduced them a certain way/in a certain order, first I want to cover the quarterback situation (semi)briefly, before delving into it further in subsequent posts throughout the off-season (as we become more aware of what direction the Vikings are going in).
The Vikings enter the offseason with one initial major question: who will start at QB in 2018? They ostensibly have three options,, in Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford, but none are under contract. To remove my own bias I had to step outside of myself and look outside of purplePTSD/VikingsTerritory.com to find what the general populace (of writers at least) was saying about this situation (as we’ll get into my thoughts below). It looks like the consensus is that Keenum is the slight favorite to begin 2018 as the starter, given that he just led Minnesota to its best season since 2009. But Bridgewater is four years younger (25) and, as a former first-round pick, arguably has the higher ceiling according to national sites that cover the team from afar. It would not be overly surprising if management opted to sign “Teddy Two Gloves” instead of Keenum, even though Bridgewater is coming off a knee injury that sidelined him for the better part of two years. The eternally injured Bradford is the only longshot in this race.
That outlook is surprising, if you listened to this week’s purpleJOURNAL Podcast, you’ll hear two different takes from Luke and Joe, one of whom is an unabashed Teddy fan but who has been paying a lot more attention to this than I have (as I honestly took a couple days off from reading about the team after having my heart ripped out Sunday… January 20th of 2010, the date of the Vikings/Saints NFC Championship game!). This is also a great way to show how two people can hear the same comments but come to completely different conclusions in that Luke felt like coach Zimmer was priming everyone for the return of Teddy Bridgewater in 2018-19 and Joe felt like he was doing the same, but for Sam Bradford. Now, I’ve always been more of a Bradford guy than a Bridgewater or even Keenum guy and while I do think that Keenum performed admirably and was perhaps better for the Vikings in 2017-18 than even Bradford, due to his mobility and ability to, sometimes, miraculously avoid sacks but do think that the Vikings will improve their offensive line, even more, this off-season and thus can return to a pure pocket passer in 2018-19. But, as Zimmer said even before the Eagles and Saints games (when he discussing why he was activating Bradford over Teddy), Bradford is the best pure passer on the roster and that’s really why I had liked him in the Teddy vs. Bradford debates that were never that big of a deal because of the injuries to both and while I like him for the future of this franchise over both Teddy and Bradford, assuming that that knee is healthy, which, at this point which all indications say it is (otherwise he wouldn’t have taken that roster spot over Teddy, considering Teddy had played towards the end of the season).
Again, while Keenum had performed admirably in 2017, even during his best games there were times where Keenum missed wide open receivers down the field. It was actually sort of his reputation, that he’d always miss wide-open touchdown down the field (usually to Thielen) at least once a game. It became so apparent that even the national announcers mentioned it during their coverage on Fox and that’s something that you can’t have as it’ll eventually come back to hurt the team in games that come down to less than a touchdown in points. While that didn’t happen during the Vikings 7-1 run from Week Five on, it could next season and it’s something worth mentioning. Beyond that, the Vikings have the best wide receiver corps in the league and with Dalvin Cook returning to run next to Latavius Murray (who was amazing in his expanded role after Cook went down with that ACL tear last season), there’s absolutely no reason that this Vikings offense shouldn’t be the best in the NFL next season. The Vikings could use some help on the defensive line when it comes to free agency and the draft, especially with the end of Sharrif Floyd’s career, but beyond that the Vikings should go all offense in both free agency and the draft, namely on the offensive line. They basically rebuilt the entire line before last season and should continue to do that by bringing in some amazing guards in the draft (or even tackles, depending on how the draft shakes out… Luckily both purplePTSD and VikingsTerritory work with @JReidDraftScout and will have the best draft coverage online this off-season!). They’ll be picking 30th, and with Joe Berger getting up there in years, also, they’ll need some guards and so they definitely need to go guard in what has been already described as a guard-heavy draft (they need to get someone from the Big Ten as well, as the Big Ten is one of the few conferences that develop NFL quality offensive lineman in college these days. The NCAA has far too many teams that run spread offenses (even in the SEC, that far too many people believe is the better conference for drafting NFL quality players. Sure, they’re good at college football, but that doesn’t mean that their players are good NFL players), so they should look at Wisconsin, Ohio State and/or Michigan for that).
If Bradford is healthy, he’s still relatively young enough to really ensure that this offense can be a force for the next few seasons. Now, I’ll say something that some might find crazy, but I do think that the Vikings need to at least look into bringing in Kirk Cousins this off-season as well. Really, the only thing that could/(perhaps) should stop them from bringing him in is that he’ll be expensive, as he could bring in as much as $25-$30 million dollars a year (depending on the bidding war). That may sound crazy to some of you, as a quarterback that expensive shouldn’t be available as a free agent, but the Red Skins are a poorly run team and have been for a long time. That’s true, as Cousins is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. If you need proof of that, look at the 2016-17 season, where he was a hair under 5,000 yards passing and as he’s done consistently, had a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio (he had 25 TDs and only 12 Interceptions that year). He’s also under 30 years old, meaning that he’s got a good near-decade of football left in him, as someone who has started all 16 games in the past three seasons. I’m not alone in my affection for Cousins, either, as it seems that he’s become the darkhorse QB candidate for the Vikings according to a couple other Vikings writers (namely some of my brethren over at our sister site, VikingsTerritory.com).
But, that probably won’t happen, again because of the cost and the fact that the Vikings have three starter-quality quarterbacks to choose from internally. However, the idea of Cousins throwing to Thielen and Stefon Diggs, while handing the ball off to Cook and Murray, behind a line that is healthy and has some young blood from the Big Ten guards that it drafted in the first and second round of this year’s draft… Would be exactly what I’d need to get invested in this team emotionally again and to really believe that they’d be right back in next year’s NFC Championship. Beyond that, while bringing in Cousins would negate a lot of what I’m about to say, should the Vikings also hire Kevin Stefanski, who was their quarterbacks coach last season, I’d also be a lot more excited as well. But, let’s move on from that and talk about the Vikings current search for a replacement to Pat Shurmur at the offensive coordinator position. This is an extremely important move and obviously will dictate the Vikings opportunity to bounce back from the embarrassment that was Philadelphia.
Now, the Vikings have interviewed Darrell Bevell (who was apart of Brad Childress’ coaching staff and also was the offensive coordinator in Seattle) and are planning on interviewing Dan Campbell (assistant head coach of the Saints) as well. Both Joe Oberle and Luke Braun questioned why they’re doing that, when Stefanski is the best fit for the position, knowing all three quarterbacks and the team well. I’m going to steal Luke’s position on this, as he explained how I feel really well on the purpleJOURNAL Podcast (have you heard we have a podcast yet? I know, I need to stop plugging that damn thing) this week. Speaking on the purpleJOURNAL Podcast, purpleJOURNAL Podcast co-host Luke Braun (who is well known because of his role on the purpleJOURNAL Podcast), said that Stefanski (who was mentioned on the purpleJOURNAL Podcast) would be the best fit because beyond his intimate knowledge of the QB’s and Shurmur’s offense, while also being young enough to not really be stuck in his ways like some offensive coordinators can be (think Norv Turner, who was so used to pushing his Air Coryellian plans that he “retired” from the Vikings instead of innovating).
I talk about football with my dad every week and we’ve long talked about the NFL’s coaches as some of the most stubborn people in existence. That’s how things like the Wild Cat take them by surprise, as they are unable to adjust to glitches/flaws in their systems (which Luke Braun actually argued was the case in the Vikings/Eagles NFC North Championship game, as Eagles head coach Doug Pederson found a flaw in Zimmers’ scheme (to be fair, Luke actually said that Zimmer outsmarted himself and attempted to run a defense that would’ve both stopped the Eagle’s offense while also attempting to avoid any chance of the Eagles exploiting any flaws in the Vikings defense which means that Zimmer, at least, is willing to change, even if it backfires to the point that All Pro players like Harrison Smith end up looking like they’re chickens running around with their heads cut off because they’re running a defensive scheme that they’ve never done before in the most important game that everyone involved has ever played in).
Hopefully the Vikings hire Stefanski, as he knows Shurmurs system and can implement some version of it, with his own takes and twists. That could keep the Vikings in the hunt next season (assuming that they’re able to improve through free agency and the draft). The intro to this piece talked about the fact that there is a tremendous amount of turnover year-to-year when it comes to the teams that make the playoffs. However, that typically applies to the bottom four seeds, at least recently, as teams like the Patriots, Seahawks and 49ers (under Harbaugh) have all had significant runs that have meant that they made the playoffs for multiple years in a row (the Vikings under Dennis Green made the playoffs for seven of his eight years as head coach). Those teams are able to do that because they have a sold core of players and also because they continue to build on that core and while the Vikings did completely destroy the hopes and dreams of people in Minnesota this year, the reality is that they do have a core like that that is locked in for the forseeable future. They also have a general manager that has done a great job of building this team and it does feel like they have a really great set up going into 2018-19 that includes having a decent amount of cap space to deal with even outside of the players that they need to extend this off-season (a topic fo another article). That cap space could include money to bring in Kirk Cousins, which would be a move that indicates that they’re not only attempting to go “all in” right now, a la the Favre move, but that they’re attempting to go all in for a dynasty instead of a Super Bowl or perhaps two.
While you have to take into account the fact that they gave up a first, fourth and seventh round pick for Sam Bradford (which did feel like an “all in” move after Teddy got hurt and they had Shaun Hill on the roster), which is something people have to take into account when it comes to whether or not they’ll let him go, there’s also not a ton of opportunities to sign a quarterback who basically threw for 5,000 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in free agency as well. The Vikings in 2017 showed that they didn’t need elite quarterback play to get to the NFC Championship (and go 13-3) this season, however, imagine if they had elite quarterback play, the top wide receiver corps, a massively improved offensive line, one of the better running back groups in Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray/Jerrick McKinnon and an improved defense that includes an improved defensive line (through the draft and signing Ra’Shede Hageman (another off-season dream of mine)). Sam Bradford showed elite play in the first game of the season against the Saints, which was the best game of his career against the Saints and is a big school player who has the capability to play at an elite level consistently. However, that “consistently” (in the former sentence, which in this sentence should be “consistenCy”) is threatened by his ability to stay healthy and because that’s a gigantic question mark… I’d much rather have Kirk Cousins who has been able to stay healthy and play at an elite level despite having to play for a team/organization that really doesn’t respect him very much. While Luke is right that Cousins will cost and arm and a… Knee, he really will only be about $10 million, max, more than Bradford will cost. Even bargain basement QB’s cost a lot, and Bradford will cost about $15-$20 million dollars. So, if Cousins costs $22-$25 million, he’s really not THAT much more than Bradford. Sure, he’s been out for awhile, but he did break the record for completion percentage the year before, but get a load of this jam jam (courtesy of Spotrac.com):
Now, compare that to Cousins:
The question becomes whether or not you think Cousins is worth that much more than Bradford or Bridgewater (assuming that Keenum is out the door, which most people do). He’s obviously better than Teddy (who has said he will be a starter in 2018-19). I do think he’s better than Bradford but beyond that, I also think that his durability is worth the premium amount you’d pay for him as the biggest thing I fear about Bradford is paying him and then needing to pay for an established backup quarterback. So, I really do wish that the Vikings would bring in Cousins as he’s just so good and would bring this offense to another level that Bridgewater wouldn’t. Imagine the hype that’d come with bringing in the “YOU LIKE THAT!” quarterback, the indication that it’d imply from the general manager, who’d basically be saying that the team clearly isn’t satisfied with how things ended this season and while they missed out on the opportunity to play in the Super Bowl in their own stadium, they’re still really going “all-in” in playing the Super Bowl in Atlanta next season.
So, I’m using this article to go on the record to support both Cousins (or in lieu of Cousins, Bradford) and Kevin Stefanski, as that could be the recipe for the Vikings finally overcoming the issues they’ve had in the NFC Championship in my lifetime and finally getting to the Super Bowl and winning the damn thing.
I would, indeed.
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