Vikings To the Super Bowl? Analytics-Driven Playoff Picks
Austin Belisle
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This post was guest-written by Luke Braun, a contributor at Purple PTSD and longtime friend of the site. Follow him on Twitter at @spokenflow22.
Every year, I engage in the exercise of picking the entire playoffs before the postseason starts. Think of it like a mini March Madness — mostly just for fun. This year, there’s no reason not to share and explain my reasoning to the world.
Wild Card Round
Titans at Chiefs
The Titans seem completely overmatched by every other team in this tournament. Their run game is putrid; over the last four weeks, they’ve only had 3.2 yards per carry and only one run over 15 yards. Marcus Mariota’s passing offense has been the most aggressive of any playoff team, but to a dismal end with only three touchdowns, as many picks, a YPA under six, and a passer rating under 90.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have regained their early season consistency. In the same span, Alex Smith has competently managed an above average passing game, while Kareem Hunt has driven a run game with over a full yard per carry more than the Titans. Defensively, Tennessee is equipped to handle the run. Kansas City has allowed teams to run on them, but the Titans seem wholly unequipped to take advantage of that.
Winner: Chiefs
Rams at Falcons
This is an incredibly tough game to pick. Both the Rams and Falcons have had incredibly successful and balanced offensive attacks, with defenses worth their salt. The Falcons are the best team in the playoffs at preventing explosive runs, which should go a long way toward slowing down Todd Gurley. Unfortunately, they give up passing success at the worst rate in the playoffs.
Jared Goff should be able to function against the Falcons, and Gurley’s impact will be in the passing game. Matt Ryan has struggled under pressure in recent weeks (and has been under pressure a lot). Aaron Donald is poised to make an impact in this one. Devonta Freeman should be able to keep pace with Gurley, even against this Rams defense, but I’m giving the edge to the Rams and their ability to prevent explosive pass plays with Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner having lights out seasons.
Winner: Rams
Bills at Jaguars
This game is closer than many think. If the Bills can get LeSean McCoy back, they’re not the “lamb to the slaughter” that many fans may assume. That said, Blake Bortles isn’t the laughingstock we got used to in 2016, either. Buffalo’s defense has out-produced Jacksonville’s in recent weeks and Tyrod Taylor has been consistent as both a passer and a runner.
But without McCoy, the whole gameplan falls apart. This game is going to look a lot different than everyone anticipates. I’m taking Tyrod to will his team past Doug Marrone. Jacksonville has quietly allowed production from mobile QBs.
Winner: Bills
Panthers at Saints
The Saints swept Carolina this year, and it’s easy to tell why. Drew Brees and the Saints’ passing offense has been consistent and explosive, while Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have produced on the ground. New Orleans’ best running days may be behind them, but the offense is still lights out. Cam Newton has struggled to throw in recent weeks, but has kept Carolina in games on the ground.
The Saints have allowed some scrambles recently, which is where Cam’s hopes lie. Carolina’s run game has been exceptional down the stretch, and the Saints might not have the juice left in their banged up defense to make it a blowout. Still, Carolina’s defense has struggled similarly, and they’re coming in ice cold.
Winner: Saints
Divisional Round
Saints at Eagles
The schedule gods would make the Saints turn around and fly east in six days, but their firepower could be too much for a descending Philly defense. Brees operates well under pressure, which could be the Eagles’ only hope. While New Orleans hasn’t been the juggernaut on defense they were earlier in the year, they only need to produce so much to stymie Nick Foles and an Eagles offense that seems to have nothing going for it.
Foles is being asked to do Wentz’s job, and the gap between the two is clear. Philadelphia’s only chance is to dial back the aDOT and hope Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey can win with YAC. That’s not the toughest test the Saints have faced.
Winner: Saints
Bills at Patriots
The Bills are better than you think, and the Patriots aren’t the best iteration of the Patriots we’ve seen in the last decade. Still, expect Tom Brady to level up a bit like he does every January. Buffalo’s defense is respectable, and their cornerbacks should be able to stymie Cooks and Hogan. The Bills can run, and the Patriots have allowed plenty of run production recently.
The Bills have a chance. But Tyrod doesn’t quite have the arsenal to compete with the Pats pass defense, which is peaking at the right time. Tyrod can keep up, but Tom Brady can beat his division rival a third time for an easy AFC Championship berth. This isn’t a blowout, though.
Winner: Patriots
Chiefs at Steelers
The Chiefs may be the 3rd best team in the AFC, and much like last year, the Steelers are the second. Kansas City has some firepower in the run game, and Pittsburgh has allowed some success there, memorably against New England at Heinz Field. But Ben Roethlisberger may be the hottest quarterback in football right now.
The Chiefs defense has been okay, but is there a win anywhere on the field? Their star corner will have to match up (hopefully) with Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster should be able to feast on the other side of the field. The Steelers offensive line has been solid, and Le’Veon Bell is as good as ever. It’s hard to see the Chiefs slowing the Steelers down.
Winner: Steelers
Rams at Vikings
Much like in their first playoff game, the Rams’ vaunted rushing attack might not be the way to go. The Vikings boast the best rush defense in football right now, and are much better than Atlanta at preventing YAC and passing success in general. Keenum has been subjected to more pressure in recent weeks than Matt Ryan, but has performed better statistically.
Aside from that, however, the Rams will have an easier time on defense than they did against Atlanta. The bar will be lower for Minnesota, however, since Los Angeles will have to leverage the weaknesses on their offense to even hope to move the ball. They simply don’t have the kind of offense that can beat Minnesota.
Winner: Vikings
Championships
Steelers at Patriots
The Patriots have the muscle on defense to slow down Big Ben, if anyone does. Their run success rate bodes well against the Steelers, who have a suspect run defense as of late. But the same thing exists on the other side of the ball, with ‘Lev’ Bell and a Patriots D that had an up-and-down season. Ultimately, it comes down to having more trust in the Patriots’ pass D than the Steelers’ pass D in a game that will be decided not by a few explosive plays, but by consistency in the unremarkable.
Winner: Patriots
Saints at Vikings
These aren’t the Week 1 Saints, but a banged up run defense and secondary could give Case Keenum the room he needs to succeed. Kamara and Ingram are tough to stop, but if anyone can do it, it’s Minnesota. Brees has relied on consistent success over explosiveness to win, but Minnesota should be able to force Brees to win games like he used to earlier in his career, and that becomes a game that Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith, and a surging Trae Waynes can take over.
I’d expect aggressiveness to lead to turnovers in a slugfest of an NFC championship, but ultimately, the Saints are more flawed and worn out than public perception suggests. This game should exhibit some exciting explosive plays, most of which going the Vikings’ way.
Winner: Vikings
Super Bowl
Patriots vs. Vikings
A home super bowl would be a dream, but New England’s defense will be difficult to pass on. This game will again come down to Murray and McKinnon and their ability to generate explosive plays and move the ball consistently; that’s how Keenum’s job becomes manageable.
New England can attack Minnesota’s defense any way they want, but at US Bank Stadium, nothing works. The Vikings haven’t given up more than 20 at home in the regular season. The Vikings can grind out a Super Bowl win against a Patriots team that has more reputation than horsepower.
Winner: Vikings
Yes, I’ve taken the homer route and picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. But at this very moment, no team has fewer fatal flaws than the Vikings, and no team has a hotter defense. Sure, you could be worried about Case Keenum, a spotty run game, or offensive line injury, but we’ll worry less than the Saints worry about their run defense, or the Jaguars about their defensive decline in recent weeks.
Thanks for reading!