NFL Week 9 Picks and Statistical Power Rankings
Another week, another set of power rankings. Like always, we start with point differential. All of the power rankings below the jump, as well as picks against the spread and the general record each statistical system has against the Vegas spread thus far.
Spoilers: beating the worst team in the NFL (at least according to the models) didn’t help the Vikings all that much, who still look like they are a poor team.
Opponent Adjusted Point Differential | ||
---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Opponent-Adjusted Point Differential |
1 | Denver Broncos | 13.72 |
2 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.14 |
3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.41 |
4 | San Diego Chargers | 8.07 |
5 | Indianapolis Colts | 6.88 |
6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5.64 |
7 | New England Patriots | 5.54 |
8 | Seattle Seahawks | 5.17 |
9 | Arizona Cardinals | 4.84 |
10 | Dallas Cowboys | 4.23 |
11 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.34 |
12 | Miami Dolphins | 2.30 |
13 | Green Bay Packers | 1.60 |
14 | Houston Texans | 1.54 |
15 | Buffalo Bills | 1.16 |
16 | Detroit Lions | 0.96 |
17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.47 |
18 | Cleveland Browns | 0.27 |
19 | New Orleans Saints | -0.56 |
20 | New York Giants | -1.40 |
21 | San Francisco 49ers | -1.61 |
22 | Washington Redskins | -2.84 |
23 | Carolina Panthers | -4.93 |
24 | St. Louis Rams | -6.04 |
25 | Tennessee Titans | -6.44 |
26 | Minnesota Vikings | -6.44 |
27 | Chicago Bears | -7.09 |
28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -7.33 |
29 | New York Jets | -8.60 |
30 | Oakland Raiders | -8.78 |
31 | Atlanta Falcons | -9.14 |
32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -11.07 |
The Tennessee Titans edge out the Vikings by a few hundredths of a point, so you may consider that a tie. Despite adding six points to their overall differential (and 0.75 per game), they should have done more against a bad Bucs team, and therefore dropped from 25th to 26th. That should be disappointing, as the Titans dropped as well with a loss to the Texans by 14 (1.75 points a game). A lot of teams in that area dropped overall, so the Vikings should have increased in their ranking by more—but the Bucs are so bad, the Vikings simply should have done more.
Nevertheless, things are looking up despite a slight decrease in the rank.
The next logical set of rankings are the Game Script rankings, which seek to minimize the effect of garbage time and looks at the point differential over the course of the entire game. I’ve converted them into expected point differential, to get a good idea of how they translate.
Game Scripts | ||
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Rank | Team | Expected Point Differential |
1 | Denver Broncos | 14.41 |
2 | Indianapolis Colts | 12.05 |
3 | Baltimore Ravens | 8.73 |
5 | San Diego Chargers | 7.21 |
5 | New England Patriots | 7.21 |
6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.79 |
7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5.49 |
8 | Green Bay Packers | 4.00 |
9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3.62 |
10 | Arizona Cardinals | 3.36 |
11 | Miami Dolphins | 3.04 |
12 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.63 |
13 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.34 |
14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.22 |
15 | Houston Texans | 0.94 |
16 | Detroit Lions | 0.22 |
17 | Cleveland Browns | -0.16 |
18 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.69 |
19 | Atlanta Falcons | -1.05 |
20 | Buffalo Bills | -1.50 |
21 | New Orleans Saints | -1.93 |
22 | Washington Redskins | -2.63 |
23 | New York Giants | -3.20 |
24 | Tennessee Titans | -4.54 |
25 | St. Louis Rams | -5.07 |
26 | Chicago Bears | -6.16 |
27 | Oakland Raiders | -7.01 |
28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -7.03 |
29 | Carolina Panthers | -7.31 |
30 | New York Jets | -7.85 |
31 | Minnesota Vikings | -8.51 |
32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -17.62 |
Man, the Buccaneers are really bad. The Vikings should have done more than a six point win in overtime if they want to prove they are anything other than a bottom-five team, which doesn’t surprise anyone but is still disappointing.
The biggest differences here are for the Atlanta Falcons (disturbingly low in the first set of rankings), the Patriots (who have won a number of games, but they were close—and barely eking out the Jets doesn’t help. The general consensus is that we need to debate over whether or not the Cowboys’ 6-2 record is “real”—which is more a question of the sustainability of their play and whether or not their win total reflects the quality of a six-win team. One could just as easily argue the same of the Patriots, whose close games against inferior teams don’t help (close here doesn’t refer to the final score, but an inability to put away teams until late). That loss against the Chiefs is huge in this system, too.
After that are the Drive Success Rate Differential rankings, which still look odd compared to the other rankings, in part because they treat all turnovers as if they were punts, and do the same with field goals. Still, the ability to achieve and prevent first downs is a priority for teams, and adjusting for opponent creates interesting results in that regard.
Drive Success Rate Differential | |
---|---|
Rank | Team |
1 | Dallas Cowboys |
2 | Miami Dolphins |
3 | Baltimore Ravens |
4 | New York Giants |
5 | Denver Broncos |
6 | Washington Redskins |
7 | Indianapolis Colts |
8 | Detroit Lions |
9 | Seattle Seahawks |
10 | Kansas City Chiefs |
11 | San Francisco 49ers |
12 | Carolina Panthers |
13 | New Orleans Saints |
14 | Cincinnati Bengals |
15 | Chicago Bears |
16 | Atlanta Falcons |
17 | New England Patriots |
18 | Philadelphia Eagles |
19 | Tennessee Titans |
20 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
21 | San Diego Chargers |
22 | Cleveland Browns |
23 | Green Bay Packers |
24 | Houston Texans |
25 | Arizona Cardinals |
26 | Minnesota Vikings |
27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
28 | Buffalo Bills |
29 | St. Louis Rams |
30 | New York Jets |
31 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
32 | Oakland Raiders |
This may explain why AFA is so high on the Miami Dolphins—relatively speaking they do a good job in creating more first downs than they allow. This system in particular, however, is very high on the Giants, Washington, the Falcons, the Bears, the Seahawks and the Panthers. Teams hurt by the system include the Chargers, Cardinals, Bills and Eagles.
This is where we start moving from simple systems like points scored to more complex analytics. For what it’s worth, the homebrew efficiency system hasn’t changed much from last week:
Homebrew Efficiency | ||
---|---|---|
Rank | Team | Effective Point Differential |
1 | Denver Broncos | 10.61 |
2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.14 |
3 | Dallas Cowboys | 5.65 |
4 | Indianapolis Colts | 5.16 |
5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.84 |
6 | Buffalo Bills | 4.28 |
7 | San Diego Chargers | 3.99 |
8 | Green Bay Packers | 3.84 |
9 | New England Patriots | 3.63 |
10 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.42 |
11 | Miami Dolphins | 3.09 |
12 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.38 |
13 | San Francisco 49ers | 1.51 |
14 | New Orleans Saints | 1.41 |
15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.16 |
16 | New York Giants | 1.13 |
17 | Houston Texans | 1.10 |
18 | Detroit Lions | -0.06 |
19 | Washington Redskins | -0.86 |
20 | Atlanta Falcons | -1.21 |
21 | Tennessee Titans | -1.36 |
22 | Chicago Bears | -1.47 |
23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.73 |
24 | Cleveland Browns | -3.25 |
25 | Arizona Cardinals | -3.60 |
26 | Philadelphia Eagles | -3.65 |
27 | Carolina Panthers | -4.75 |
28 | St. Louis Rams | -4.84 |
29 | Minnesota Vikings | -5.53 |
30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -8.80 |
31 | Oakland Raiders | -9.33 |
32 | New York Jets | -11.89 |
Denver is really, really good. It is difficult to emphasize how good they are, but I think this efficiency chart that emphasizes those differences comes close. The obligatory “the difference between first and second is the difference between second and 17th” comparison works here. Though the Vikings are in the bottom five, they are not nearly as bad as any of the three teams at the bottom.
I think it also demonstrates that the national conversation about teams often doesn’t match their performance on the field. A Dallas loss on Monday night drops them far more in power rankings than their previous seven games, and Kansas City is virtually ignored. The Lions have dropped in the rankings over the past two weeks, but they still have a dominant defense.
Speaking of the national conversation, here’s the group power ranking of national media:
Subjective Media Rankings | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | ESPN | NFL.com | B/R | CBS | Yahoo | Fox | NBC | AP | SBN | Avg |
Denver Broncos | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.11 |
New England Patriots | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.22 |
Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4.33 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4.67 |
Detroit Lions | 6 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6.78 |
Green Bay Packers | 7 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8.22 |
San Diego Chargers | 8 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7.89 |
Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 8.78 |
Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 9.56 |
San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12.67 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 11.56 |
Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 11.89 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 13.11 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15.11 |
Buffalo Bills | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15.56 |
New Orleans Saints | 17 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 18.89 |
Miami Dolphins | 18 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 16.89 |
Cleveland Browns | 19 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 18.89 |
Carolina Panthers | 20 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 21.11 |
Houston Texans | 21 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 20.00 |
New York Giants | 22 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 24 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20.67 |
Chicago Bears | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 23.00 |
Washington Redskins | 24 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 23.78 |
Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24.67 |
Atlanta Falcons | 26 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26.44 |
St. Louis Rams | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 26.11 |
Tennessee Titans | 28 | 28 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 28.56 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 30.22 |
New York Jets | 30 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29.44 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 30.22 |
Oakland Raiders | 32 | 32 | 28 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31.56 |
Speaking of figuring out if a team’s record is real, has anyone asked that question of Arizona? They are massively oversold and due for a drop.
We can compare across other systems, like we do every week.
Efficiency Systems | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective Rank | Effective PD | AFA Rank | Effective AFA PD | FO Rank | Effective FO PD | Home Rank | Effective Home PD | Team |
1 | 11.4 | 1 | 11.8 | 1 | 11.7 | 1 | 10.6 | Denver Broncos |
2 | 4.7 | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | 3.7 | 2 | 6.1 | Kansas City Chiefs |
3 | 4.3 | 10 | 2.9 | 2 | 6.4 | 10 | 3.4 | Baltimore Ravens |
4 | 4.2 | 3 | 4.7 | 7 | 2.7 | 4 | 5.2 | Indianapolis Colts |
5 | 4.1 | 2 | 7.1 | 9 | 2.2 | 11 | 3.1 | Miami Dolphins |
6 | 3.9 | 4 | 4.1 | 5 | 3.7 | 8 | 3.8 | Green Bay Packers |
7 | 3.8 | 7 | 3.5 | 11 | 2.1 | 3 | 5.6 | Dallas Cowboys |
8 | 3.5 | 4 | 4.1 | 13 | 1.7 | 5 | 4.8 | Cincinnati Bengals |
9 | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 3 | 4.7 | 12 | 2.4 | Seattle Seahawks |
10 | 2.2 | 15 | 1.1 | 12 | 1.8 | 9 | 3.6 | New England Patriots |
11 | 2.1 | 19 | 0.0 | 9 | 2.2 | 7 | 4.0 | San Diego Chargers |
12 | 1.9 | 16 | 0.6 | 16 | 0.8 | 6 | 4.3 | Buffalo Bills |
13 | 1.5 | 13 | 1.7 | 15 | 1.4 | 14 | 1.4 | New Orleans Saints |
14 | 1.4 | 16 | 0.6 | 8 | 2.5 | 15 | 1.2 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
15 | 1.3 | 11 | 2.3 | 14 | 1.6 | 18 | -0.1 | Detroit Lions |
16 | 1.0 | 11 | 2.3 | 20 | -0.9 | 13 | 1.5 | San Francisco 49ers |
17 | 0.4 | 7 | 3.5 | 23 | -1.6 | 19 | -0.9 | Washington Redskins |
18 | -0.4 | 21 | -1.2 | 22 | -1.1 | 17 | 1.1 | Houston Texans |
19 | -0.5 | 13 | 1.7 | 17 | 0.0 | 24 | -3.2 | Cleveland Browns |
20 | -0.8 | 24 | -2.4 | 21 | -1.1 | 16 | 1.1 | New York Giants |
21 | -0.8 | 23 | -1.8 | 6 | 3.1 | 26 | -3.7 | Philadelphia Eagles |
22 | -1.5 | 20 | -0.6 | 25 | -2.6 | 21 | -1.4 | Tennessee Titans |
23 | -1.6 | 21 | -1.2 | 24 | -2.1 | 22 | -1.5 | Chicago Bears |
24 | -2.5 | 25 | -3.6 | 18 | -0.2 | 25 | -3.6 | Arizona Cardinals |
25 | -2.6 | 16 | 0.6 | 26 | -3.6 | 27 | -4.7 | Carolina Panthers |
26 | -3.2 | 30 | -7.7 | 19 | -0.6 | 20 | -1.2 | Atlanta Falcons |
27 | -4.4 | 26 | -4.2 | 31 | -6.4 | 23 | -2.7 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
28 | -5.6 | 27 | -5.4 | 29 | -6.0 | 29 | -5.5 | Minnesota Vikings |
29 | -5.8 | 29 | -6.6 | 30 | -6.0 | 28 | -4.8 | St. Louis Rams |
30 | -7.3 | 27 | -5.4 | 27 | -4.7 | 32 | -11.9 | New York Jets |
31 | -7.9 | 31 | -9.5 | 28 | -4.7 | 31 | -9.3 | Oakland Raiders |
32 | -10.1 | 32 | -10.7 | 32 | -10.8 | 30 | -8.8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Right now, I’ve got records for all three systems against the Vegas spread. As a reminder, neither AFA nor FO endorse this system of converting their numbers into a point differential, or in using that point differential to make picks against Vegas.
System Picks Against the Spread | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away | Home | AFA (17-13) | FO (13-17) | Home Eff (15-15) | PD (14-16) | Vegas |
OAK | SEA | Seattle by 16 | Seattle by 12.4 | Seattle by 14.7 | Seattle by 8.8 | Seattle by 15 |
JAX | CIN | Cincinnati by 11.3 | Cincinnati by 11.1 | Cincinnati by 10.6 | Cincinnati by 5.9 | Cincinnati by 11.5 |
STL | SFO | San Francisco by 11.9 | San Francisco by 8.2 | San Francisco by 9.4 | San Francisco by 6.6 | San Francisco by 10.0 |
NYJ | KAN | Kansas City by 12.5 | Kansas City by 11.4 | Kansas City by 21.0 | Kansas City by 9.7 | Kansas City by 10.0 |
TAM | CLE | Cleveland by 15.4 | Cleveland by 13.7 | Cleveland by 8.6 | Cleveland by 6.4 | Cleveland by 7.0 |
ARI | DAL | Dallas by 10.1 | Dallas by 5.3 | Dallas by 12.2 | Dallas by 2.4 | Dallas by 4.0 |
SDG | MIA | Miami by 10.1 | Miami by 3.0 | Miami by 2.1 | Miami by 0.1 | Miami by 1.5 |
WAS | MIN | Washington by 5.9 | Washington by 1.4 | Washington by 1.7 | Minnesota by 1.7 | Minnesota by 1.0 |
BAL | PIT | Pittsburgh by 0.6 | Baltimore by 0.9 | Pittsburgh by 0.7 | Pittsburgh by 3.6 | Pick ’em |
PHI | HOU | Houston by 3.6 | Philadelphia by 1.2 | Houston by 7.8 | Houston by 0.0 | Philadelphia by 2.0 |
DEN | NWE | Denver by 7.7 | Denver by 7.0 | Denver by 4.0 | Denver by 0.6 | Denver by 3.0 |
NOR | CAR | Carolina by 1.8 | New Orleans by 2.0 | Carolina by 3.2 | Carolina by 1.3 | New Orleans by 3.0 |
IND | NYG | Indianapolis by 4.1 | Indianapolis by 0.8 | Indianapolis by 1.0 | Indianapolis by 2.1 | Indianapolis by 3.0 |