2014 NFL Cuts—Cutdown Analysis and Intriguing Players

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Aug 30, 2014

The cut list is still up and running, and as of midnight on Friday is completely up to date, barring a rumor about an offensive tackle battle in San Diego. As a result, we can begin to do some analysis of the cutdowns. Some teams have not done them as of this posting (Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, both New Yorks and San Francisco), and no one has a complete list done, though Jacksonville seems closest. The fact that some players have not been cut yet from every team is a critical flaw in any real analysis, but this was a quick outgrowth of the work I was already doing, and seemed interesting enough.

 

First, some intriguing players—they may not specifically be interesting to the Vikings, but are certainly worth following and may get picked up by someone else on Sunday (waiver claims on Friday and Saturday are processed on Sunday). On the list are players that either had a good preseason, per Pro Football Focus, are recognizable names, or were high-round picks:

Player Position Notes
Champ Bailey Cornerback I’ve listed him as a cornerback, but the future Hall-of-Famer may want to end his career like Charles Woodson, as a safety. Despite Bailey’s recent injury history (which is overblown; 2013 wasn’t great but he was only “out” for four games, mostly missing more at Denver’s discretion than true injury—he didn’t have any reported injuries in 2012 and was pretty clean in 2011), he’s worth a shot at safety, which may be better from an injury perspective anyway. Bailey was an elite corner who’s lost a step but may have the ability to attune his high-level instincts in a position that doesn’t require as much athletic prowess. He still feels like he can play and is a free agent. Obviously, his representation feel he’s healthy to go—but the Vikings will conduct a medical just to be sure in the even they’re interested.
Jordan Mabin Cornerback He has been with four different teams since going undrafted in 2012, and with the Montreal Alouettes twice. He played a preseason in Atlanta that was marginal (5 snaps). Still, a very good 2014 preseason is worth scrutinizing.
Jordan Sullen Cornerback Projected as a safety at the next level, Washington decided to keep him at cornerback before cutting him. He did very well in the preseason, all things considered, without a single game that stands out as skewing PFF’s sample. He was in pass coverage 51 times and only thrown at three of those times, for no completions. He’s not particularly athletic, but he did flash agility and plays physically. Improved every year at Tulane. Needs to accelerate and tackle better. Instincts will be his selling point.
Brandon Harris Cornerback A second-round pick for Houston, Harris has had one season as an acceptable backup, with the rest of them being poor at best. He did not have a very good preseason, either. He would not help the Vikings figure out their cornerback issues. Harris hasn’t found a scheme to work well in, but the specific brand of Cover 2 he did the worst with in Houston (before they switched) was closer to Zimmer’s Cover-1/3 setup than Fraziers’ Tampa 2. It does not seem like a good fit or investment.
Marcus Benard Defensive End Productive but undrafted out of Jackson State in 2009, Benard is an edge rusher who has been on three squads, though only an offseason member with the Patriots in 2013. He had a pretty terrible preseason for them, but Arizona did not mind his regular season contributions. He may be too undersized for the Vikings, but the Patriots thought they could get DE talent out of him. Even though they were wrong, something may be there.
Israel Idonije Defensive End Familiar mostly because of his time in Chicago (and then Detroit), Idonije attempted to fulfill the role that Michael Bennett currently does with the Seahawks as a pass-rushing specialist who can work on the edge or inside. It’s been 11 years, though, and it will be difficult to catch on again. He was backup quality in Detroit and died down over the season (and had a limited snap count). Still, he was effective in those limited snaps (ranking 16th of 52 4-3 DEs in Pass Rusher Productivity), so someone else will kick the tires. Vikings may like Trattou more, though no one would begrudge them either decision.
Larry English Defensive End Larry English has failed to perform in both of his stops, and is the highest pick to be cut so far. He hasn’t disappointed as much as his “bust” reputation suggests, and should be a good backup somewhere as a pass-rusher. The issue, of course, is that he doesn’t have the on-field athleticism or strength to rush the passer, or the technique to overcome it, though he still strikes home on occasion. Against the run, his hands are fine, but his functional strength is not. He can tackle well. Still, the Vikings have enough depth at DE to move on, and English wouldn’t be the first look anyway (if the Vikings needed pass rusher depth, there’s a lot to be had).
Quentin Groves Defensive End May not have the size to transition to defensive end. He was a second-round pick for the Jaguars, but never put it together. He transitioned from edge rush linebacker to interior DL/DE for them, with nothing happening before being cut. After that, he went to Oakland to be a traditional linebacker, where he was an OK backup. After two years there, he was an iffy edge rusher at Arizona, then in 2013, Cleveland. Houston just cut him. If he can become a 4-3 LB again, he could perhaps be worth something, but teams did not like what he put together. Besides, Minnesota has depth at LB, just not starters.
Landon Cohen Defensive Tackle Top score by a longshot, earning a PFF grade of +10.7. Good grades in four of five games, with the fifth grade a result of penalty. He was drafted by Detroit in the 7th round of 2008, and saw the field extensively in 2009, where he was mediocre. He was cut in 2010, and played for Jacksonville and New England. In the 2011 offseason, he was at Seahawks camp and went back to New England. In 2012, he was with two teams in the offseason, but didn’t make either’s active roster. He signed with Dallas in 2013, and was cut three games in, but played immediately for Chicago later that week that season. It was not good. That’s when he signed with the Bills before this latest cut. His showing may make for another roster, but he may not be worth it.
Sione Fua Defensive Tackle Once again, the veteran nose tackle had a good if inconsistent preseason, and once again it comes on the heels of a disappointing regular season. Fua has only been around three years, but it’s telling that Fua has been cut by two teams now. Complicating things, however, is the fact that both of the teams he was cut from showcased incredible depth at his position. Denver has three other defensive tackles that can play the nose, and some of them are better pass rushers. The Panthers, when they cut him, had just drafted Lotulelei. Fua is backup-quality. While Fua may be a better talent than Tom Johnson, Johnson had a great camp and preseason, so we may not see movement there.
Chigbo Anunoby Defensive Tackle Despite bouncing around colleges a lot, he entered the NFL pretty young. He didn’t get much done on the all-star circuit in his final offseason, but his upper body strength has always intrigued. Unlikely that he would provide help, though, as he hasn’t developed much in his time in the NFL. Chicago has surprisingly put together a lot of depth at DT after Melton’s exit, so Anunoby’s cut may be more due to crowding out than talent (they have added Jay Ratliff, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, two more rookies and a vet FA). Still, his slow progress may get him kicked out of the NFL despite a good preseason.
Isaac Sopoaga Defensive Tackle Isaac Sopoaga may never have had a good season in the NFL, but his name is familiar and he’s been on the same team as some pretty good defenses, so he tends to get massively overrated. All in all, he’s a rosterable player, but probably shouldn’t even be the primary backup at nose tackle. But with so few nose tackles in the league, he gets chances. With teams using fewer and fewer NTs, he may be the biggest name without a team and that’s OK with me.
Tyler Shatley Guard Shatley is more of a project than a player. He spent two years on the other side of the ball at Clemson before transferring, and like Anthony Barr thrived there. Unlike Barr, he is not an athletic phenom nor did he take to the position like fish to water, but with enough technique coaching, he can get it done (which is likely why with the Jaguars he did better than he did at Clemson). His upper body strength is phenomenal, but he needs to anchor a little better.
Adam Replogle Guard A surprising name to see on the offensive line, Replogle was extremely productive at Indiana as a three-technique DT. He had five sacks and *70* tackles his senior year. His career numbers are equally staggering for a DT and was a sleeper pick for a number of draft analysts. He’s very strong, even for his size, and that may be what encouraged the transition to guard.
Pat Angerer Off-ball Linebacker A second-round pick for Indianapolis, IDP fantasy players know Angerer well. Despite not catching on in Atlanta, Angerer offers real backup value and could even start for a few teams. Still, I would recommend against any team to rely on him, even though he did get better every year he was in the NFL—his growth curve is too slow. He’s been a better pass defender than run defender despite his high tackle total, but that doesn’t mean he was a great coverage linebacker. With a good preseason in Atlanta, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the first free agent off the street to be called up after a Week 2 injury somewhere.
Xavius Boyd Off-ball Linebacker Boyd’s high rating comes about in large part due to the last game, which is a bit discouraging in terms of total evaluation. He doesn’t test well as an athlete, but his speed on tape is intriguing, something he needs to cultivate at only 239 pounds. He’s a classic cover LB who has a lot of issues against the run, but is rangy enough for the passing game.
Eric Winston Offensive Tackle Winston will turn 31 during the season, but it’s impossible to ignore his phenomenal 2012 showing with Kansas City. His 2013 with Arizona was terrible, but it’s surprising to see a top-tier right tackle degrade that quickly. If the issue is scheme fit, then there are reasons for both the Seahawks and Vikings to turn away (and it sounds like that’s the case), but if not, he’s worth kicking the tires because he would very probably be an upgrade over Austin Wentworth (if the Vikings weren’t high on Antonio Richardson).
J’Marcus Webb Offensive Tackle If the Vikings are not feeling confident in Austin Wentworth as an offensive tackle, then they could get Webb again, who was just cut by the Chiefs. He’s familiar with the language and techniques in a Jeff Davidson offensive line and the Vikings may feel better working with the devil they know. He’s a massive man that flamed out in Chicago as a starter but figures to have a productive role as a backup for some time. He’s still weak against pass protection, but a great run blocker and a much better “sixth offensive linemen” to have in heavy sets, which is how the Vikings used him on occasion last year.
Kasey Redfern Punter The Vikings aren’t giving up on their punter this year, no matter how poorly he performed in the preseason. But if they do, Redfern is worth a look. Jacksonville is and should be happy with Bryan Anger. Redfern had one demonstrably bad punt in 15 recorded punts. His average get-off time (1.26 seconds) and median get-off time (1.3 seconds) are both fantastic and his hang time average (4.6) and median (4.7) were both very good, too. He displayed both accuracy and power, with a few corner punts and solid work to keep the ball away from the end zone. The one touchback he had was not his fault (ball hit the 8-yard line with a high bounce, but Atlanta’s STs baited the unit away from the ball).With ALL of that, he was a very good kickoff specialist and a solid field goal kicker in the preseason as well. He should probably not kick field goals regularly, but he would be spectacular as an option to add flexibility.
Lache Seastrunk Running Back Seastrunk’s cut had more to do with the absurd running back talent in Washington than his own talent, though it’s clear he hasn’t lived up to his college preseason hype. Not a power back, his lack of receiving production at Baylor is a red flag for a back who requires space to operate. He may be a zone-runner only.He wasn’t decisive at Baylor and too often bounced outside, especially because he was not good between the tackles. Still, he has quick feet, great acceleration and very good change-of-direction. If he can gain muscle, he’d be an extremely good backup. For all his decisiveness and power issues, I would not be upset to see an argument that he’s better than Matt Asiata.
Chase Coffman Tight End Chase Coffman was a well-regarded draft prospect who fell (to the 3rd round) due to injury concerns, which manifested themselves early for the Bengals. After making the PS twice, he signed with the Buccaneers, who waived him. After that, Atlanta placed him on their PS. Like Cincinnati, Atlanta did not offer a reserve contract to him at the end of the season. His rep in college was as a very, very good pass-catcher with limited blocking duties. He didn’t do much blocking in the preseason, but his receiving was good.
Craig Loston Safety Craig Loston was a safety I was very low on in the draft, but neither did I expect him to go undrafted nor get cut in the first round of cuts. Because he was a name that was on the minds of many safety-needy teams, might as well get down to it. He only played in two games for Jacksonville and very few snaps at that (10). At LSU, he played with good anticipation in a complex defense that mirrors the responsibilities of the more difficult defenses to master in the NFL. He was a signal-caller for their good defense, hit with abandon and had some speed. But his length and fluidity were both very poor, and he was inconsistent driving to the ball. Big hitter, but not a great tackler. He has iffy recovery speed, is an old rookie (25), and did not do a very good job tracking the ball. His physicality in the run game was not matched by any such relish for contact in coverage. For all his football intelligence, he also took poor angles against the run.
Duke Ihenacho Safety Ihenacho first flashed in 2013, with both good and bad games on either extreme, but certainly showed promise. In his time with the Broncos, he did show issues with quick read/react skills, and some tackling issues, but certainly has the speed and understanding of on-field geometry to make a difference in the run game. Ihenacho is a fearless hitter, and he makes his presence known. He’s rangier than given credit for, and can play deeper than the Broncos did. The bigger issues are false steps and generic footwork. In college, he played four different positions and had four different coaching staffs in his time with San Jose State, so his development was severely stunted. He needs to be more fluid, but his awareness in zone often makes up for it.
Ed Reynolds Safety I’m surprised both that Reynolds lasted to the fifth round and that he was cut by the Eagles. He reads the quarterback very well and reacts to the ball and is rangier than his athletic reputation would suggest. He has a good sense of leverage and positioning, and despite a lack of long speed can find the ball easily, and put up some good numbers to that effect. Solid in run support, both in being assignment-sound and quick to react without biting on fakes. Though he doesn’t read running angles consistently, is still an asset and can combine a proclivity for big hits with form tackles.
Major Wright Safety He’s great if you have a death wish at safety. He benefited in Chicago working with Peanut Tillman, and even then did not look particularly good. Without Tillman, he looked awful. He is not particularly instinctive in coverage and is late to react. In college he got away with it because of his speed, but in the NFL he’s been exposed. He does not do a good job positioning himself in the secondary, especially with the ball in the air. In the run game, he went for the big hit more than the tackle, and it didn’t usually work out. His tackling angles have improved since college, but it didn’t do a lot of good with the rest of the package in mind.
Sean Baker Safety Baker didn’t get to see the field at all in 2012 or 2013, but had a pretty good preseason. He’s a very quick safety who plays with a lot of range. Generally speaking, safeties with range and the instincts that he displayed while at Ball State would make him at least a decent pick to stick onto the roster, but concerns about technique may have limited him. It looked like he cleaned up his footwork, which would reduce a lot of his issues, and would therefore at least be a depth option if not a starting option. He’s a reliable tackler who at Ball State showed up in a big way in the run game, playing with both form and physicality. In the NFL, he’s expected to have more trouble getting off of blocks (which he had issues with in college). His speed isn’t great, but neither is it very limiting—he simply won’t be a man coverage safety. Was a ballhawk.
Kellen Davis Tight End Has worked in an Air Coryell system in Chicago under Mike Martz and was in camp with Norv Turner with the Cleveland Browns in 2013. His preseason was not too bad, although he didn’t shine in his final game with the Giants, who are known to need a tight end. Despite some recent struggles (2012 and 2013), he excelled under Mike Martz, and unusually for Martz, as a blocking tight end who could catch. His ability to create running lanes would be a nice addition in order to spell Ellison on the field and create a reasonable tight end rotation.
Gerell Robinson Tight End A flex/move tight end more in the spirit of Rhett Ellison than Kyle Rudolph, Robinson has some athletic ability to him that many other tight ends don’t. He was converted by the Broncos to tight end from wide receiver, where he played at ASU. He can take abuse and relishes blocking, but will need to adapt to a different style of route-running and different assignments run blocking in the NFL. I think he can do it, but mostly he needs to add weight.
MarQueis Gray Tight End Those who remember him from his days as a Golden Gopher may cringe, but Norv Turner loved having Gray on his roster with the Browns as a move tight end with potential. He used him in Wildcat-type sets as well as a traditional tight end. He knows Norv’s system, adds a dynamic element to the offense that wasn’t there before, and has loads of potential. Unfortunately, his hands and route-running haven’t developed quite like he may have hoped, which is why he was cut from a team that desperately needs pass-catchers. Still, with the ball in space…
Vincent Brown Wide Receiver There’s no question that Vincent Brown is a talented receiver. At Chargers camp, he only saw one day because of a calf injury. He also missed all of 2012 on injured reserve with an ankle issue. That he hasn’t been reported to have been waived with an injury settlement is interesting to me, and his 472 yards with the Chargers last year are intriguing, but not as intriguing as his overall potential and skill set, which exceeds his yardage total. He was polished coming out of SD State, and though his timed speed isn’t great, he has shown a knack for separation. His size is a concern, but not as much of one as you’d think—his injuries don’t appear to be size related. UPDATE: He was in fact waived with an injury settlement. Proceed with caution.
Travis Labhart Wide Receiver The “other” receiver at Texas A&M, Travis Labhart seems to embody every white receiver stereotype. He’s small and agonizingly slow in a straight line, but has excellent agility and short-area quickness. With solid hands. At TAMU, he flashed decent instincts, despite not seeing the field until his senior year. Limited production there, but enough on tape that I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up on a practice squad somewhere.
Brian Robiskie Wide Receiver Robiskie was a second-round pick for Cleveland, and other than being a pretty good run blocker has not done much for them. His career-high 324 yards in 2010 was not encouraging, and he’s been on four teams since then. Pass.
Armanti Edwards Wide Receiver Edwards is only here because he engineered one of the greatest college upsets in history, though he has been a mediocre NFL player. With 22 yards on 11 targets and 114 snaps in the preseason, he really isn’t worth looking into. He couldn’t get on the field with the Panthers in 2013, which is pretty significant.
Stephen Hill Wide Receiver The book on Stephen Hill is already written, but if he’s receptive to coaching and just needs a better coach to unlock his massive potential, then George Stewart has the ability to turn someone who is more athletically gifted than Cordarrelle Patterson in many ways into a true threat. The team doesn’t need a receiver now, but Hill would be a receiver with some ability to contribute now, with a future return on investment that may allow them to delay on replacing Jerome Simpson or Greg Jennings down the road. If Hill can be coached. There is no indication that that is the case, although the Jets are known to be fairly inattentive on offense.

Of the cuts we know so far, the average PFF grade in the preseason for them was -1.2, while the median was -1.0. They took 60.1 snaps on average (57 median), and had 2 years of experience in the NFL. Assuming that undrafted free agents are “eighth-round picks,” the average round a player went in, at this point in the cut process, was the fifth round, though the median was the sixth round. Here are the total number of cuts by position:

Position Number
Defensive Tackle 18
Cornerback 17
Tight End 17
Wide Receiver 16
Guard 12
Defensive End 11
Off-ball Linebacker 11
Quarterback 10
Fullback 8
Safety 7
Tackle 7
Center 6
Running Back 6
Punter 4
Kicker 2

More as the day goes on.

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